The Big 10 adds two new members, however useless they are to the bigger picture (Maryland, Rutgers). If the Big Ten needed new members, certainly there had to be better big picture candidates. The conference seemed to be dead set on adding the New York/New Jersey and Washington DC markets. Here's a newsflash...those are two terrible college football markets that are pro sports markets first, and college football falls about fifth or sixth in priority when it comes to coverage, or even fan interest. Add to that the fact that Maryland and Rutgers are historical average to horrible programs, and the Big 14 really grades an epic fail when it comes to who they chose to expand with. The conference would have been better off staying at 12 until better candidates chose to come along. Sometimes market size and TV viewing households do not translate when it comes to college football fandom. It's dated thinking at best.
The good news is that the conference has as many as four teams that could all influence the national title picture, either by eliminating someone from consideration, or by winning out and making the move for themselves. The pressure is on.
Predicted Order of Finish
East
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan State
3. Michigan
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. Rutgers
7. Maryland
West
1. Wisconsin
2. Nebraska
3. Iowa
4. Minnesota
5. Northwestern
6. Illinois
7. Purdue
Most Overrated
Nebraska
Most Underrated
Iowa
Coaches on the Hot Seat
Kevin Wilson, Indiana
Randy Edsell, Maryland
Kyle Flood, Rutgers
Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern
Tim Beckman, Illinois
Bo Pelini, Nebraska
Best Coach
Urban Meyer, Ohio State
Worst Coach
Tim Beckman, Illinois
Conference Preview
The following teams are expected to post winning records and acquire bowl bids...
Ohio State Buckeyes
Projected 2014 Record: 11-1
Head Coach: Urban Meyer (24-2, 3rd season)
Offense
The Buckeyes will likely be one of the more explosive offensive teams in college football in 2014. Back is QB Braxton Miller, one of the best QBs in the nation, and a big time Heisman candidate. He is a game changer who needs to stay healthy to give the Buckeyes a shot to win it all inside and outside of the Big 10.
Ezekiel Elliott gets the nod at RB as a sophomore, but he is a weapon to be used plenty out of the backfield and in the passing game. He can be lined up all over the field, and could be a prime time power back as well.
OSU also returns one of the best receiving corps in the game in Devin Smith and Evan Spencer, but SLOT receiver Dontre Wilson will, like Elliott, be used as a weapon in various forms, and may be the most talented of the group in his first season as a starter. Jeff Heuerman is the returning starter at TE, and just gives the Buckeyes yet one more weapon in the passing game.
The only concern on this offense is the line, which could make or break the season, as only one starter (LT Taylor Dekker) returns for the 2014 season.
Defense
The secondary was the biggest issue a season ago, and it appears that it may be the Achilles once again in 2014. only CB Doran Grant returns from a unit that finished 110th against the pass in last fall by allowing 268 yards per game through the air.
The story is different up front, as the defense ranked 9th nationally against the run. Noah Spence leads a talented and deep unit up front at DE, and is joined on the line by returning starters DE Joey Bosa and DT Michael Bennett. Adolphus Washington looks to be in line to start at the opne DT position.
At LB, Joshua Perry returns as the leading tackler from a season ago, finishing with 84 tackles on the season. Curtis Grant returns at LB as well, while freshman Raekwon McMillan may battle for playing time in fall camp.
Special Teams
The Buckeyes will be turning over the PK duties to a freshman in Sean Nuemberger, but he will still have to prove himself in camp. It's always a risk to go with a freshman in such an important position. Cameron Johnston brings his cannon leg back after averaging 44 yards per punt in 2013.
Opening Game
8/30 Navy at Batimore
Final Overview
OSU is coming off of a two game losing streak to start the season, and nothing is ever guaranteed against a pesky Navy club in the opener. The secondary is being rebuilt, and wasn't that good to start with. The offense ought to score with the best of them, but the defense has some areas of shoring up to do in camp. Urban Meyer rolled off 24 straight wins to start his Buckeye career, and the Buckeyes could very well roll off 12 or 13 more this season, however, there is always a trap game in the Big 10, which is strong at the top. Michigan State is that trip up game, and nothing is ever guaranteed against Michigan in the finale, and certainly don't forget trap games in non-conference play against Navy and Virginia Tech.
Michigan State Spartans
Projected 2014 Record: 11-1
Head Coach: Mark Dantonio (64-29, 8th season)
Offense
The offense struggled at times in 2013, but came through when it was needed most, and the QB position, which was a liability when the season began, turned into a strength when Connor Cook stepped up. The junior is well in charge heading into the fall, and will lead a unit that should be much improved.
Jeremy Langford rushed for 1422 yards last fall, and returns as the primary back as a senior. Langford is an absolute beast, and could be the best overall back in the Big 10, and could be one of the best nationally.
WR Tony Lippett stepped up late in the season as well last fall, and will be the number one target in the passing game. Josiah Price is the other returning starter in the passing game at TE. Joining Lippett as starter would be Aaron Burbridge and Macgarrett Kings, but Kings was suspended and he may or may not be back. If Kings is gone, then expect DeAnthony Arnett to step into the other starting role.
The line ran an eight man rotation last fall, and it is paying off in 2014. Jack Allen returns as the starting Center, and the only other returning full time starter is LT Jack Conklin. The main question will be at RT, where sophomore Kodi Kieler is slated to start.
Defense
The best news here is the return of DC Pat Narduzzi, who turned down a few head coaching jobs to remain as DC at MSU. He returns some intriguing pieces from a unit that finished 2nd nationally in total defense last season.
Shilique Calhoun returns as the reigning Big Ten DL of the year in 2014 at DE. He is joined at the other DE spot by Marcus Rush. They compliment each other perfectly coming off of either edge. Lawrence Thomas and Damon Knox will be new starters in the middle of the line.
Max Bullough and Denicos Allen have both departed, but that doesn't mean that talent isn't still flowing. Taiwan Jones will be back in the middle at LB, and should be joined by new starters Darien Harris and Ed Davis, both juniors.
Trae Waynes has to be counted on to lead the secondary at CB, but the other spot is vulnerable with a sophomore taking over in Darian Hicks. Senior Kurtis Drummond will return at FS, and will be joined at SS by incoming freshman Jalyn Powell, who is expected to have a huge impact from day one in the program.
Special Teams
The kicking game is set with the return of PK Michael Geiger and P Mike Sadler. Geiger hit on 15 of 16 FGs last fall, while Sadler averaged 42.5 yards per punt and led the nation in punts downed inside the ten.
Opening Game
8/29 Jacksonville State
Final Overview
The Spartans will easily be the main challenger in division for Ohio State, and will be a major player in the national picture as well. Dantonio signed a lengthy contract extension, and Narduzzi returned to run one of the best defenses found anywhere. The Spartans are in prime position to be a major national power for the next several seasons, and have now surpassed instate rival Michigan for state superiority.
Wisconsin Badgers
Projected 2014 Record: 11-1
Head Coach: Gary Anderson (9-4, 2nd season)
Offense
Imrovement must come from the passing game if the Badgers are to become players in the conference race. Wisconsin finished just 93rd in passing last fall, but Joel Stave is back with another season under his belt at QB despite being pushed by Tanner McAvoy in camp.
The other key to the passing game must come from a largely inexperienced group at WR, as the entire returning corps combined for 28 grabs last fall. Jordan Frederick and Kenzel Doe will have to step up as they head the depth chart heading into camp. Sam Ameson is also fighting to take over at TE.
Melvin Gordon is a beast at RB, and will be joined in the strong backfield committee by Corey Clement, who is a strong replacement for the departed James White.
The line returns intact, with only one new starter in C Dan Voltz.
Defense
Dave Aranda will have to completely rebuild the defense, as only three starters return, and they're all in the secondary. Sojourn Shelton and Darius Hillary are both back at CB, and junior Michael Caputo returns at SS, and is largely expected to be the unit leader. Sophomore Leo Musso is in the lead to start at FS heading into the fall.
The entire front seven is going to be loaded with new starters, but that's not all bad for the Badgers. Aranda likes the unit that he has coming in, and figures to blitz more and have more intricate schemes going on in the 3-4 defense. The only issue with having so many new faces is that depth figures to be an issue. As good as the new faces may be, injuries could wreck the season that could be special if all things come together.
Special Teams
Jack Russell is back at PK after hitting 9 of 13 FGs last fall. That being said, he is being challenged by big time recruit Rafael Gaglianone in camp. That could be an interesting battle heading into the fall, and both could see action during the early part of the year.
Drew Meyer returns as the Punter, but he had a subpar season in 2013, averaging just 38.6 yards per punt. He has a firm hold on the job, and has no real challengers heading into the season.
Opening Game
8/30 LSU at Houston
Final Overview
Despite so many new faces and questions, if all things come together, the Badgers could be playing for a Big Ten title, and could make a push in the national picture. Gary Anderson is one hell of a coach, and resisted being recruited to leave by the Cleveland Browns. In all reality, that shouldn't have been a difficult call to make, and staying in Madison was the right call. The opener is tough with LSU in what is an essential home game for the Tigers, but the Badgers should blow through the next eight games until they run into Nebraska and Iowa in back to back weeks in November. If you are looking for a dark horse, Wisconsin could be your team.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Projected 2014 Record: 10-2
Head Coach: Bo Pelini (58-24, 7th season)
Offense
This unit was largely all over the place in 2013, and the Huskers come into the season looking for stability, especially at the QB position, which never should have been an issue. Tommie Armstrong, Jr. comes in as the man at QB this fall after starting eight times a year ago in relief. Armstrong looked wonderful sometimes, and awful in other situations. He has had a full spring to lock into the role, and should be more stable this time around.
One benefit Armstrong has is Ameer Abdullah running out of the I behind him. Abdullah rushed for 1690 yards last fall, and is one of the premier backs in the nation. If he can break into the end zone more than 9 times this fall, well, that would be just great.
Kenny Bell is one of the premier receivers in America, and he will try to give Armstrong a reliable target, especially in the red zone, where Bell is the man. Jamal Turner and Sam Burch are new full time starters, so that may be an issue as they develop into their roles. Cethan Carter returns to start at TE.
The line could be a mess, and that is a huge problem with a young QB trying to find his way. LG Jake Cotton is the lone returning starter. All of the front runners in the other positions are upper classmen, but that also means that depth could be a disaster when injuries hit.
Defense
Remember when the Huskers were one of the most dominant forces in college football? Well, many of you may not have been alive back in those days. Nebraska finished ranked 40th in total defense, and ranked no higher than 33rd in any given stat on the defensive side. That is where the problem is for Nebraska, and until that issue is resolved, Nebraska will never likely be a team to deal with on a national level, and the fan base needs to realize that. It all starts with the black shirts, and they may not be walking through that door.
Randy Gregory (DE) and Vincent Valentine (DT) are back on the line, but the other DL jobs are open. Michael Rose is back at LB, and more will be needed of him this fall. Zaire Anderson and David Santos will flank him, with Anderson being expected to add some impact on the edge rush.
Josh Mitchell will return to start at CB, but a new starter will be lining up on the other side in junior Jonathon Rose. Corey Cooper is back at SS, but FS is open, with the job likely falling to sophomore Leroy Alexander.
Special Teams
Mauro Bondi was expected to win the PK job, but wasn't solid enough in the spring, so now he finds himself in a battle with freshman Drew Brown heading into camp. Sam Fultz had a solid freshman season as the starting Punter, and is back after averaging 41.6 yards per punt.
Opening Game
8/30 Florida Atlantic
Final Overview
It all starts with fixing the QB play, the offensive line, and finding a way to return to dominance on defense. Bo Pelini is a cat with nine lives spent, as he somehow avoided being canned after having several meltdowns last season on and off the field. Pelini may have gotten an extension after last season, but make no mistake, the heat us at inferno level, and Pelini may not have the talent to break through with this football team. There are some nice pieces, but overall, there aren't enough special athletes on this football team to challenge the big boys in the Big Ten. This isn't the old days, when the Huskers could steam through the Big 2 and little 6. Pelini is going to hear it all year long, but the fan base also has to somehow cope with the fact that the 70s, 80s, and 90s are over, and the landscape has changed.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Projected 2014 Record: 10-2
Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz (108-79, 16th season)
Offense
If you want to find a breakthrough player in the Big 10 in 2014, it may end up being QB Jake Rudock. Rudock was largely hit and miss last fall, but he may have developed enough from lessons learned that he could very well push forward and break through the upper echelon of conference QBs this fall. He certainly has some decent skills to build on after passing for 18 TDs and 2383 yards last fall.
Mark Weisman is back to start at RB, but the Hawkeyes are especially deep at RB, and Jordan Canzeri and Damon Bullock could add significant carries. There are six other RBs on the depth chart. FB Adam Cox will get the nod to start this fall.
Kevonte Martin-Manley never really broke through last fall at WR, but he has an opportunity this fall to be the leader on this offense. He has all of the skills to do so, but needs to step up big. Tevaun Smith will get the job opposite heading into camp, but look out for freshman Derrick Willies, who got on the radar in spring ball. Senior Ray Hamilton will likely be the starting TE on opening day.
The line is solid with Brandon Scherff back at LT, Austin Blythe at Center, and Jordan Walsh at RG.
Defense
The defense is the strong side of this football team, having finished 9th national in total defense. There are some issues, however, especially in the middle. All three linebackers must be replaced. Travis Perry, Quinton Alston, and Reggie Spearman are in line to start heading into camp.
The line is loaded, with three starters returning in DE Drew Ott, DT Carl Davis, and DT Louis Trinca-Pasat. THe front seven helped the Hawkeyes rank 10th national in 2013, holding opponents to 128.4 yards per game. The secondary has holes to fill at CB and FS. Sean Draper is slated to hold down the open CB spot, while Jordan Lomax is lined up to start at FS. Desmond King had a very nice freshman season, and is back at CB, while John Lowdermilk returns at SS.
Special Teams
There will be a new PK this fall, with Marshall Koehn slated to lead the pack heading into camp, but he will have challengers until the season opener.
Conner Kornbrath averaged 40 yards per punt last fall, and is back, but JC transfer Dillon Kidd may give him a run for the job.
Opening Game
8/30 Northern Iowa
Final Overview
Iowa is the 4th team in the Big 10 that could potentially blow up into a national scene stealer in 2014. There is more than enough talent on defense to carry the offense as it finds itself, and the schedule is completely manageable until the final two games of the season, when Iowa takes on Wisconsin and Nebraska in back to back weeks to close it out. Kirk Ferentz could have his best team in the last ten years if everything comes together. There is plenty to look forward to this fall in Iowa City.
Michigan Wolverines
Projected 2014 Record: 9-3
Head Coach: Brady Hoke (26-13, 4th season)
Offense
The Wolverines, like Nebraska, have issues that weren't always issues in the past. With Michigan, it's a dysfunctional running game, that was always the strength on traditional Wolverine football teams. UM ranked just 102nd in rushing in 2013, which is completely unacceptable by Michigan standards, and if you want one specific area to blame the collapse of 2013 on, this could be a prime suspect.
It's time for Derrick Green, the top recruited RB for UM in 2013, to show his thing in 2014. He will get the first crack at the open RB job, and will be joined there by De'Veon Smith. These guys have much to prove.
Nobody has more to prove than QB Devin Gardner, who is back as a 5th season. He is working on his 3rd coordinator, so his struggles are not all his fault. Doug Nussmeier will try to tweak Gardner into being more pocket thinking, which is where he really excels. Shane Morris is hanging around if Gardner faults, but he has shown little thus far.
Devin Funchess, one of the best TEs in the country, will likely line up more at WR this fall, with Erik AJ Williams starting at TE. This could be an excellent one-two punch for the passing game, which is dying for dependable targets.
The line really is a black hole of disaster, and was a major factor in the struggles of both the running game, and the entirety of the problems that the Wolverines have been having. Nine different linemen started last fall, and that was a huge disaster. Three full time starters return in LT Erik Magnuson, LG Kyle Bosch, and RG Kyle Kallis. All three are sophomores, and will serve as building blocks moving forward. The other two spots are open.
Defense
Frank Clark and Brennan Beyer return at DE, but there will be new starters in the middle of the line. The defense was largely average last fall, so pressure has to come from up front, and disrupt the passing game, which averaged 231.3 yards per game last fall. The LB corps returns intact, which is a huge relief, and gives the D some stability. Desmond Morgan, Jake Ryan, and James Ross III all return, but more is expected after ranking 29th against the run, which is a strong point.
Ray Taylor is back at CB, and Jarrod Wilson is back at FS, while Blake Countess returns at the other CB spot, giving Michigan a strong building point in the secondary. It's time for this group to step it up.
Special Teams
Matt Wile returns at PK after starting as the Punter last fall, but he does have some experience at PK duties, so not all is lost here. He hands his punting duties over to senior Will Hagerup, who returns after being suspended last fall. He has a quality leg.
Opening Game
8/30 Appalachian State
Final Overview
We all know what happened the last time that Appalachian State opened a season in the Big House (Remember, I called that ASU win), but ASU is no longer an FCS member, and is not the same quality as that club, so don't expect a repeat here.
The offense has several issues, and the defense needs to step up. There are few special athletes here, and the strong defenses and run game from the past that were the foundations of all great Michigan teams do not exist here.
Brady Hoke is a strong coach, but he had better start turning it around, or else the locals will be head hunting. Like Nebraska fan, it's time to acknowledge that the 70s, 80s, and 90s are long gone, and Bo isn't walking through that door to fix things.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Projected 2014 Record: 8-4
Head Coach: James Franklin (1st season)
Offense
With change at the top, there is always a problem with consistency. Christian Hackenberg needs to find that this season after a strong, but not perfect freshman year. Bill O'Brien has moved on to the NFL, so James Franklin has to take Hackenberg to the next level, and Franklin has never had this kind of QB to deal with before, so the results will largely be anyone's guess.
Zach Zwinak could be a huge breakthrough player in the conference at RB in 2014, but he needs Franklin to just get him the ball in the playbook. Bill Belton and Akeel Lynch will also get some carries, but Zwinak could be the star here.
Jesse James is back at TE, but all of the other receiver spots are open heading into camp, which could be the biggest problem that the offense holds.
The offensive line could be an issue as well, as only LT Donovan Smith returns.
Defense
This unit has some work to do, ranking just 48th in total D last fall.
Deion Barnes and CJ Olaniyan are back at DE, but they will largely be supporting new starters at DT in the 4-3. The LB corps is the strength up front, as both Mike Hull and Nyeem Wartman both return to the fold. Sophomore Brandon Bell should be the new starter at the open LB spot, while Anthony Zettel and Austin Johnson will line up at the DT spots as we head into the fall.
The secondary gave up 237 yards passing per game last fall, ranking just 73rd. It shoud be better with three returning starters in CBs Trevor Williams and Jordan Lucas returning along with S Adrian Amos. Senior Ryan Keiser will likely be the new starter at Safety heading into the fall.
Special Teams
Sam Ficken is back at PK, but hit just 15 of 23 for the season, and just 8 of 15 in the second half of the season. The punting game was no better, and it's up to new starter Chris Gulla, a freshman, to fix the problem.
Opening Game
8/30 UCF at Dublin, Ireland
Final Overview
Penn State was just showing progress coming off of the Sandusky/Paterno debacle, and then Bill O'Brien, largely sick and freaking tired of dealing with a delusional Paternoite crowd, bolted for a job coaching the Houston Texans. Nobody can blame him. In a short three years, the Lions are moving on to yet another head coach. Luckily, they landed James Franklin, who was largely recruited for several jobs. Franklin brings huge energy, and will recruit the hell out of the place. He should find a good deal of success, but questions remain about how good he will be on the big stage after working at some middling programs. The schedule shows 8 wins, but it's all about how the offense progresses with a young QB, and how much the D can step up from a middle of the road season. The Lions may be on their way back, but they aren't there yet.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Projected 2014 Record: 7-5
Head Coach: Jerry Kill (17-21, 4th season)
Offense
Mitch Leidner was handed the full time job at QB after sharing duties with Phillip Nelson last fall. Nelson transferred, and then found some off-field trouble, so Leidner is the man. He has to be able to think pass before run, as he was the team's second leading rusher last fall. It's time to think more front line starter than situational guy.
David Cobb and Rodrick Williams will try to take some heat off of Leidner at RB, and both had starting experience last season, but someone has to be the guy here. Donnell Kirkwood is another back returning who started some last fall.
Both receiver jobs are open heading into camp, and that group could determine Leidner's fate and legacy. Only TE Maxx Williams returns in this group.
The line looks to be strong with three starters returning in LG Zac Epping, RG Caleb Bak, and RT Josh Campion. This group has a great deal of experience. Tommy Olson is the new starter at Center, and is a senior. LT Ben Lauer is the kid of the group as a sophomore.
Defense
There is depth and experience on the line, as DE Thieren Cockran, DE Michael Amaefula, and DT Cameron Botticelli all return. Scott Epke should be the lone new starter at DT.
LB may be a different story, as only Damien Wilson returns. He should be flanked by De'Vondre Campbell and Jack Lynn, who are holding down jobs coming out of spring ball.
Eric Murray is back at CB, and Cedric Thompson is back at S, but there are new bodies needed at CB and the other S spot as well.
Special Teams
Freshman Ryan Santoso is likely the new starter at PK, but that battle will continue into fall practice. Punter is more locked down, with Peter Morteli returning after a strong season ins 2013 that saw him average 43.3 yards per punt.
Opening Game
8/28 Eastern Illinois
Final Overview
The Gophers must find a way to be a better passing team if they hope to exceed seven wins, which seems to be their plateau. The run game is solid, but if a passing game cannot be found, then teams will go with 8 men I the box and challenge the Gophers to try to throw the football, which is no their strong suit.
The defense must step up as well, but wasn't terrible season, ranking 43rd in total defense.
It's time for the entire program to find a way to push through, and a healthy coach in Jerry Kill would be a nice start. He was taken out of play several times last fall with his health issues, and no matter what anyone says, it's a distraction.
The following programs are projected to finish with losing records, and will likely not receive bowl bids...
Indiana Hoosiers
Projected 2014 Record: 6-6
Head Coach: Kevin Wilson
The Good
The offense is one of the most explosive in the country, having scored 38.4 points per game, which was good for 16th nationally. The Hoosiers averaged 508.5 yards per game, good for 9th nationally.
The entire offensive line returns, which could be a huge building block for an already great offense. RB Tevin Coleman ran for 928 yards last season, but missed three games. He should be healthy.
Nine starters return on defense, but that could be bad news...see below.
The Bad
The defense was one of the worst in the country, ranking 120th nationally. The Hoosiers gave up 527.9 yards per game, and 38.4 points per game, the same as the offense scored. PK Mitch Ewald moved on, so the points gained from the kicking game must be found in another source. Kevin Wilson's overall record is 10-26 heading into his 4th season, so 2014 has to be the year that this football team turns a corner. Patience in Bloomington, even for football, only lasts so long.
By the way, as good as the offense is, I hate two QB systems, and the Hoosiers are running one. Nobody wins big with a two QB system.
Northwestern Wildcats
Projected 2014 Record: 5-7
Head Coach: Pat Fitzgerald
The Good
QB Trevor Siemian is finally the full time QB, but only if he can stay on the field. Injuries ruined him last season, but then again, injuries wrecked every position last fall in some way.
If Venric Mark is healthy, he can be one of the most dynamic backs in the conference. He was far from healthy last fall.
The offensive line returns four starters, giving the Wildcats a starting point to build from, as is the receiving corps, as both Christian Jones and Tony Jones are slated to return.
Slotback Dan Vitale is one of the more interesting players in the conference.
The Bad
The union situation that started at Northwestern is potentially a huge blight on college football, and could change everything for the worse. Of course, every player that has signed on for this suit is someone who basically has no pro future, so there's that.
Neither the offense, nor the defense was absolutely awful, but neither were they overly wonderful. The defense was, however, particularly awful against the pass, ranking 99th in that category, while finishing 88th in total defense.
Several players got experience due to injury last season, but they have to all prove themselves, as they were bogged down last fall.
The schedule is a bit difficult, and a 2-6 start is possible. The Cats will be better this season, but maybe not by much. Pat Fitzgerald is seeing his star diminish just a bit.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Projected 2014 Record: 4-8
Head Coach: Tim Beckman
The Good
The Illini have a QB that could carry them to another level in Oklahoma State transfer Wes Lunt. That being said, he is in a three way battle to win the job that hasn't been decided.
Josh Ferguson is back at RB, and is just as dangerous as a runner as he is a receiver. In short, he's a nightmare for defenses in coverage.
The offensive line returns four starters, giving the offense some consistency.
Bill Cubit may have been a mess as a head coach at Western Michigan, but he's a solid OC who can find ways to use several players in unique ways.
The Bad
The defense wasn't as bad as Indiana, but it was damn close. The Illini ranked 110th nationally in total defense in 2013.
The defense wasn't athletically talented at all, and the unit spent much of the off season trying to add speed and strength. It's impossible for me to say that they are much better off than they were a year ago, and three sophomores are starting (LB TJ Neal, CB Caleb Day, and FS Taylor Barton).
The offense has to find a run game, as they ranked just 92nd in the country in rushing, which brought the rest of the offense to a halt.
At the end of the day, the Illini will be lucky to return to four wins, and that may not be enough to save Tim Beckman's job.
Purdue Boilermakers
Projected 2014 Record: 4-8
Head Coach: Darrell Hazell
The Good
If you had to find something that worked for Purdue last fall, it was that the pass defense ranked 55th against the pass. That's about as good as anything got last season. Danny Etling is back at QB after starting as a freshman, so I'm looking for development here.
The middle of the line returns, which could help an anemic run game, and Akeem Hunt is a weapon at RB, where he'll be able to concentrate his full attention after playing both RB and WR last fall.
That pass defense returns three starters in the secondary in CB Frankie Williams, SS Landon Feltcher, and FS Taylor Richards.
The Bad
The offense was awful, the defense was awful, and the Boilers were just awful in every way. Purdue finished 119th in offense, and 104th in defense. The kicking game was terrible, and there is a battle at PK heading into the fall.
I'm being too harsh on Darrell Hazell as head coach calling him the worst in the Big 10, but until he gets this thing running, that's the honest truth. Maybe Tim Beckman is worse, but it's too close to call right now.
Maryland Terrapins
Projected 2014 Record: 3-9
Head Coach: Randy Edsell
The Good
CJ Brown returns at QB, and may be the biggest weapon the Terps have on offense, but he has to get better as a passer. As far as his running ability out of the spread read offense, he is a wizard.
The Terps are deep at RB, so the run game is a strength. That's a good thing, because the Terps only ranked 83rd in rushing last fall.
Both receivers return, and four starters return on the line, giving Maryland hopes of actually taking off on offense.
The defense wasn't terrible last fall, ranking 44th nationally. Six starters return in the front seven, so run defense should be a strength.
The secondary looks to get stronger as well, with three starters returning there for a unit that allowed 225.1 yards per game.
The Bad
Maryland ranked 75th nationally in total offense, and they don't seem to be any closer to finding answers to get much better than that.
There could be a major losing streak built into the schedule, with 8 potential losses in the middle of the slate. Turnovers were a killer as well, as the Terps finished -7 last fall.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Projected 2014 Record: 2-10
Head Coach: Kyle Flood
The Good
There is depth at RB for the first time in a while, if the health bug doesn't bite. Paul James could be a game changer, but was banged up last year, which opened the door for several other RBs.
The receiving corps could have depth, but several receivers are inexperienced.
Tyler Kroft could end up being one of the better TEs in the conference when all is said and done.
All five linemen return on offense.
The run defense is really solid, and there is depth up front to support a unit that ranked 4th nationally against the run.
The Bad
The offense was a wreck, ranking just 95th in total defense. Pass D was especially terrible, ranking 120th.
Rutgers has another QB situation, with Chas Dodd battling Gary Nova, amongst others. None of them are very good overall, and Nova is barely better than average most days. That doesn't help an anemic run game, as Rutgers ranked 100th nationally in rushing.
The schedule is particularly brutal, with a four week stretch mid season against Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. The Knights may be scarlet in their own blood by the end of their first season in the Big 10.
Saturday, July 19, 2014
Sunday, July 13, 2014
2014 College Football Preview: ACC
The ACC goes through a bit of change in 2014, as the realignment carousel continues to spin. Maryland has left the ACC for the "greener grass" of the Big 10, while Louisville enters the conference as a replacement piece after leaving the AAC. This basically irons out as a gain for the conference, as Louisville is a far better program than what Maryland is current day. Louisville will increase the overall year end PRS score for the conference, and Maryland likely sinks into a never ending abyss in their new home.
The conference also comes off of the high gained by Florida State taking the final BCS title in a thrilling win over Auburn last January, breaking a long string of titles won by the SEC. Jameis Winston added to the fun by taking a Heisman home, but tarnished the accomplishment at times with major off field issues, including aborted charges of sexual assault, and an ill advised attempt at shop lifting some crab legs from a Publix Market.
The conference, as a whole, after FSU has question marks abounding, as several schools have huge holes to plug heading into 2014. Sources had major problems discerning favorites after FSU, with as many as four different programs tabbed to win the seemingly wide open Coastal division.
Projected Order of Finish
Atlantic
1. Florida State
2. Clemson
3. Louisville
4. Syracuse
5. Boston College
6. NC State
7. Wake Forest
Coastal
1. Duke
2. North Carolina
3. Miami
4. Virginia Tech
5. Pittsburgh
6. Georgia Tech
7. Virginia
Most Overrated
Miami
Most Underrated
Duke
Coaches on the Hot Seat
Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech
Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech
Mike London, Virginia
Best Coach
Jimbo Fisher, Florida State
Worst Coach
Mike London, Virginia
Conference Preview
The following teams are projected to finish with winning records/bowl births
Florida State Seminoles
Projected 2014 Record: 12-0
Head Coach: Jimbo Fisher (45-10, 5th season)
Offense
When you have Jameis Winston at QB, everything will be ok, even when you have several other losses that would be detrimental to most programs. The RS sophomore passed for over 4000 yards and scored 44 times as a freshman last season, and his impact was felt immediately in a season opening win at Pitt. He is likely to be even more developed in 2014, and that is great news for Jimbo and Company.
James Wilder is gone at RB, but Karlos Williams is promising. He rushed for over 700 yards last season, and averaged over 8 yards per carry. Look for Williams to carry 20 plus carries per game in 2014. Freddie Stevenson will start at RB as well in the pro set offense, and will likely hold a role like Williams had last season.
Rashad Greene racked up 1128 yards receiving last season, and he's back to lead a corps of young, but talented receivers. Greene will be Winston's best friend in 2014. Christian Green, a senior, is going to need to step up well beyond what he's done to date to make up for the fact that Greene will see multiple double teams.
TE Nick O'Leary, largely thought to be one of the best TEs in the nation, should be a welcome return for the Noles, and will also help take pressure off of Greene in the passing game.
The line is a huge strength for FSU, and will be a key to a run at another title. Cameron Erving (LT) and Josue Matias (LG) will anchor the left side, while Bobby Hart (RT) and Tre' Jackson (RG) will anchor on the right. The lone new starter is C Austin Barron, and even he has five career starts to his credit.
Defense
Charles Kelly comes in as the new DC with plenty of spots to fill, but he has many toys to play with, as Fisher and crew have recruited like maniacs.
Junior Mario Edwards returns to start at LDE, and he will be joined as a starting returnee on the line by junior Eddie Goldman. Nile Lawrence-Staple and Desmond Staple will likely rotate in the open RDT spot. With the LDE open, Chris Casher is leading the pack to get the start heading into camp.
Terrence Smith is the lone returning LB this fall. He finished with 59 tackles last fall, and will need to step up big this season as the new default starter in the middle of the defense. Ukeme Eligwe and Reggie Northrup emerged last spring to be the likely starters in the two open spots.
The corners are set with Jalen Ramsey and PJ Williams coming back for another go. Williams is the better of the two, breaking up 7 passes with 3 picks in 2013.
Both Safety spots remain open, as Tyler Hunter and Nate Andrews head into fall camp in the lead for those spots.
Special Teams
Roberto Aguayo won the Lou Groza award last fall after hitting 21 of 22 FGs. With him back at PK, the Noles are a lock to score. Cason Beatty returns at P, but he was hardly dependable, and his problems are still evident heading into fall. FSU may need to find an able replacement.
Opening Game
8/30 Oklahoma State at Arlington, Texas
Final Overview
FSU is going to make a run at their second consecutive title this season, and may still be one of the deeper and more talented team in the nation. Jimbo Fisher has finally turned the corner for the Noles, and there is no looking back. The schedule is highly manageable, and when you return both the Heisman and Groza award winners, expectations should be high. FSU is my lock to be one of the four teams to play in the first championship tournament in 2014.
Clemson Tigers
Projected 2014 Record: 9-3
Head Coach: Dabo Swinney (51-23, 6th season)
Offense
The Tigers found an able replacement for the departed Tahj Boyd in the spring in Cole Stoudt. Stoudt is a more than able passer, and is also athletic enough to make please on the run as well. He isn't Boyd, but he'll do nicely.
The RB position is wide open heading into camp, with Zac Brooks tentatively holding the lead. DJ Howard, Wayne Gallman, and CJ Davidson all figure into the mix.
Adam Humphries is the lone returning starter at WR, but he is more of a possession type guy, and not a true unit leader or top flight target. Charone Peak blew his ACL last September, but should be ready to fill a spot. Mike Williams is the likely leader of the group, and coaches are high on his ability. There is plenty of young talent on the bench, but there is very little in the way of experience. Stanton Seckinger is back at TE, but is not a huge receiving threat.
The interior line returns intact with LG David Beasly, C Ryan Norton, and RG Kalon Davis, but both tackles must be replaced. Isaiah Battle and Shaq Anthony figure into the open tackle jobs heading into the fall.
Defense
The D line figures to be a focal point in 2014, as three of four return , including the monster that can be DE Vic Beasley, who finished with 23.5 TFLs in 2013. Corey Crawford lines up at end on the other side, while Grady Jarrett returns in the idle at tackle. Senior DeShawn Williams will be the lone new starter, but he has experience.
Stephone Anthony returns at MLB, and is coming off a season where he collected 131 tackles. Travis Blanks returns as well, but health is an issue with him as well as with new starter Tony Steward, as both have a history with torn ACLs.
The secondary is a huge guessing game coming in, as three of four starters have departed. Only Safety Robert Smith returns. Martin Jenkins and Mackensie Alexander have the lead to start at Corner as we head into the fall., and Jayron Kearse.
Special Teams
The loss of Chandler Catanzaro is huge. Junior Ammon Lakip finished spring with the job, but he is an unknown.
Bradley Pinion was strong on directional kicks, but his overall average was garbage as a sophomore. More will be needed from him.
Opening Game
8/30 at Georgia
Final Overview
There are several questions heading into the season, and I find it highly unlikely that the Tigers will make a run at the ACC title. The schedule in the first month is absolutely brutal, as Clemson travels to Georgia and Florida State, and gets North Carolina, and later Louisville, at home. The back end of the schedule is loaded with opportunities for big wins, and the Tigers will have to make the most of it. Overall, the offense is too muddled right now to make much of skill wise.
Miami Hurricanes
Projected 2014 Record: 7-5
Head Coach: Al Golden (22-15, 4th season)
Offense
The Hurricanes are just a mess at QB heading into the fall, as potential new starter Ryan Williams blew his ACL. Now the job goes to freshman Kevin Olsen, and he was a disaster in the spring game. fellow freshmen Brad Kaaya and Malik Dozier are both definitely still in the race.
Duke Johnson is a beast at RB, but ifthere is no QB in place, defenses will just stack the box and make the QBs throw as they crush the run. Johnson does have an injury history, as he broke his ankle last season. His backup was Dallas Crawford, but he moves to Safety. The new backup is freshman Joseph Yearby, who enrolled early. He too got hurt in spring ball, so there is a banged up group hanging out in the backfield.
The receivers all have some experience, but are all starting for the first time regularly. Stacy Coley, Phillip Dorsett, and Herb Waters are all the starters heading into the fall camp, and Malcolm Lewis is the 4th. The problem is...you guessed it...Dorsett and Lewis were both injured much of 2013. Clive Walford is the starter at TE, a role he held in 2013.
The left side of the line returns from Center out in Shane McDermott (C), Jon Feliciano (LG), and Ereck Flowers (LT). The right side of the line is being rebuilt, and the leaders are both sophomores in Taylor Gadbois (RT), and Danny Isidora (RG).
Defense
The defense gave up 26 points or more in each of their final six games, including the bowl, last season. They gave up 3rd down conversions like Halloween candy, and looked highly unlike historic Miami defenses.
The D Line is undersized, and lacks depth. Olsen Pierre does bring some size in the middle of the line at tackle, as does new starter Calvin Heurtelou. DE Anthony Chickillo returns at End, but he severely lacks bulk, and new starter at DE Tyriq McCord looks more like a LB than a DE.
Denzel Perryman is a beast at LB, and will hopefully spark improvement on the defensive side of the football, and collected 108 tackles last fall. Thurston Ambrister and Raphael Kirby are the likely new starters outside.
Two starters return in the secondary. Tracy Howard is back at Corner, while Rayshawn Jenkins is back at Safety. Antonio Crawford will likely step into the opening at CB, while converted RB Dallas Crawford will line up at Safety.
Special Teams
Matt Goudis will handle both PK and P duties this fall unless another punter can be found in camp. He hit 13 of 17 FG attempts last fall, and with the offense likely set to struggle early, he will need to step up production in a big way, and find more consistency to boot.
Opening Game
9/1 at Louisville
Final Overview
Some outfits picked the Canes to win the ACC Coastal this season. The division is wide open, but you'd have to be a Cane die hard or smoking crack to truly believe that this edition of Miami football could pull that off in 2014. The offense is going to struggle, and the defense was a complete train wreck at the end of last season, and I see no signs of it getting better all too quickly. Miami will probably squeeze out seven wins, and it will be tough to get there.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Projected 2014 Record: 7-5
Head Coach: Larry Fedora (15-10, 3rd season)
Offense
Marquise Williams made a huge splash over the second half of last season, and gave UNC a QB that they knew they could lean on. Williams should make some strides this season as he returns for his junior season after passing for 15 TDs over the final 5 games. There actually is a QB battle going on in camp, however, as Larry Fedora is pulling the moron move of allowing Mitch Trubisky to compete for the job. That is a huge mistake. I've never been a huge Fedora fan, and if he even leans toward playing both QBs this fall in a two QB system, then he basically backs up my thoughts of his coaching skills, because 2 QB systems rarely ever win.
Nobody is really paying attention to the RB spot, but for what it's worth, TJ Logan had a strong spring, and will return to the starting role.
The receiving corps is solid, as TJ Thorpe and Quinshad Davis return as starters. Davis had 10 TDs last season, and is the number one target. Kick return man extraordinaire Ryan Switzer will step up into a starting role, and will still return kicks.
Jack Tabb returns at TE, but he won't be the guy that Eric Ebron was.
Three starters return are back on the line in Jon Heck (LT), Caleb Peterson (LG), and Landon Turner (RG).
Defense
The line, which has been loaded with talent over the last several years, has finally seemed to have thin out. Only one starter returns this fall in Ethan Farmer (DT). Jessie Rodgers and Junior Gronkonde will likely start at DE, with Justin Thomason will likely fill the open spot at DT.
Travis Hughes and Jeff Schoettmer return to give the Heels returning starters at both LB spots in the 4-2-5 defense. Schoettmer is the leading returning tackler on the team.
The strength of the secondary will be the safeties, who all return. Norkeithus Otis, Tim Scott, and Dominique Green will man those spots. However, both corners must be replaced.
Special Teams
Thomas Moore returns at PK, but only connected on 14 of 19 FGs last fall. Tommy Hibbard was highly strong last fall at Punter, averaging 43 yards per kick.
Opening Game
8/30 Liberty
Final Overview
UNC finished strong last fall after a horrid start, but they also lost some serious talent that provided the spark to make that run. This team could go either way, and the new starters on defense may very well carry the day. If the defense can't keep up with recent tradition, then it may be a long season.
Louisville Cardinals
Projected 2014 Record: 10-2
Head Coach: Bobby Petrino (41-9, 5th season...1st season back)
Offense
Teddy Bridgewater is gone, and Will Gardner is the new guy at the trigger now. Gardner emerged from the pack near the end of spring ball, but he is barely holding on to the job heading into the fall.
Dominique Brown is really the power back in the offense, but Petrino will also run Auburn transfer Michael Dyer and LJ Scott often.
DeVante Parker gave up a shot at the NFL draft to return, and is one of the best in the nation. Eli Rogers and James Quick will both be new starters this fall.
TE Gerald Christian really blew up in spring ball, and may be emerging as a serious receiving threat.
Three starters return on the line in LT Jamon Brown, LG John Miller, and RG Jake Smith. Sophomore Tobijah Hughley will likely start at Center, while Aaron Epps has emerged as the leader at RT.
Defense
The defense could be a bit of a mess this season, as only four starters return. Nobody returns on the D line. BJ DuBose and Sheldon Rankins will step up at DE, while DeAngelo Brown lines up at NT.
Lorenzo Mauldin and James Burgess will add some veteran presence at LB on a unit that needs exactly that. Deiontrez Mount and Keith Brown will step into the open starting jobs at LB, and both have been in the program for a while, so neither is all that new to the job.
The corners are set with Charles Gaines and Terrell Floyd returning, but both Safeties need replacing. Gerod Hollman and James Sample will be ling up at SS and FS respectively.
Special Teams
John Wallace had a solid season last fall when he hit 20 of 24 FG attempts. Ryan Johnson returns at Punter after averaging 41.2 yards per punt last fall.
Opening Game
9/1 Miami
Final Overview
With Teddy Bridgewater gone, Louisville may be in for an era of transition. That could mean a step back, but I believe that the Cardinals are going to exceed expectations and win ten games in 2014. It's a wide open conference outside of Florida State, and so why can't Louisville succeed? They won't beat FSU, but a great bowl bid is in line if the Cards meet my expectations. Bobby Petrino's return virtually guarantees a surprising finish.
Duke Blue Devils
Projected 2014 Record: 11-1
Head Coach: David Cutliffe (31-44, 7th season)
Offense
Anthony Boone returns at QB after a huge breakthrough season in 2013. Boone has the QB job all to himself this season, and will have his top target back in Jamison Crowder. This is really the best QB/WR combo in the ACC, and one of the best in college football. Max McCarthy and Isaac Blakeney also return at WR, as does TE Braxton Deaver, giving Boone a more than solid WR/TE corps to support him.
Shaquille Powell will be come into his junior season as the starting RB. Senior Josh Snead will also get some solid carries. This could be a setback position after Jela Duncan was kicked out of school, but I don't believe that Duke misses a beat without him.
The line could bring everything crashing down if two new starters don't step up. LT Takoby Cofield, C Matt Skura, and RG Laken Tomlinson are all back as starters. Tanner Stone is the likely new starter as a sophomore, and all eyes could be on him to see how he steps up. Lucas Patrick will likely start at LG.
Defense
Duke runs a 4-2-5 defense, and they are thin on the front four. NT Jamal Bruce is the lone returning starter on the line, but there is strength and experience in the new starters (Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo and Dezmond Johnson at DE, Carlos Way at DT).
Both LBs return in Kelby Brown and David Helton. Helton led the aCC in tackles per game with 9.5 last season, and Brown was just a shade under 9 per game himself.
All three safeties return in Jeremy Cash, DeVon Edwards, and Deondre Singleton. Edwards and Singleton started as freshmen last fall.
Both corners will be new in Breon Borders and Bryon Fields, who will also both start as sophomores.
Special Teams
Ross Martin was one of the best kickers in the nation last season, when he hit on 23 of 27 kicks. Will Monday is back at Punter, and is also a star after averaging 43.7 yards per punt last fall.
Opening Game
8/30 Elon
Final Overview
This will not be a popular pick, but I think that Duke is likely the second best team in the ACC other than Florida State this fall. I like their mix of veterans and young players, and they return key athletes on offense. The defense fell apart in the ACC title game, and collapsed in the Peach Bowl against Texas A&M, but there was a great deal of youth playing last fall, and those mistakes won't be repeated this season. The schedule sets up very nicely early, and they miss Florida State, Clemson, and Louisville this season. That helps. I really love Duke's chances.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Projected 2014 Record: 7-5
Head Coach: Frank Beamer (224-109-2, 28th season)
Offense
The maddeningly inconsistent Logan Thomas has moved on at QB for the Hokies, but that doesn;t mean that the position will be better this year over last. Texas Tech transfer Michael Brewer is likely the starter, but that battle will move into fall camp with Brendan Motley and Mark Leal.
Trey Edmunds will return as the starting RB, and will share carries with JC Coleman. Neither one of them really stands out to this point, so we will see what they bring this fall. Sam rogers returns at FB.
Demitri Knowles and Josh Stanford will both be back at WR, but neither receiver broke over 50 catches last fall. One of them, or both needs to step this season, but how much of their lacking star power was a result of on and off QB play last season?
Junior Ryan Malleck will step in as the new starter at TE.
Both Tackles (Jonathon McLaughlin and Laurence Gibson) return, as does Caleb Farris at Center. Both Guards have to be replaced.
Defense
The defense could be a total mess this season, as only four starters return.
Luther Maddy is the only starter returning in the entire front seven in 2014 at DT. The rest of the line and the entire LB corps must be replaced in the starter ranks.
The secondary is much better off, as only one CB needs to be replaced. Kendall Fuller is a star at CB, while Detrick Bonner and Kyshoen Jarrett could be poised for big seasons at Safety. Brandon Facyson will likely be the new staring CB.
There are several upperclassmen looking to step up into the starting ranks on defense, but depth could be a huge concern.
Special Teams
There are three PKs competing heading into the fall for the job, and they are led by Richmond transfer Remington Hinshaw. AJ Hughes is returning to his punting duties after averaging over 44 yards per punt in a huge season for him.
Opening Game
8/30 William & Mary
Final Overview
Frank Beamer is slipping, and there is no doubt of that. His dominant days are behind him a Tech, and UCLA exposed that in a very big way at the Sun Bowl last December in a 42-12 crushing defeat. The talent level has severely dipped, especially at QB, where it's been a good long while since the Hokies have had one of note. The running game doesn't pound like it used to, and the defensive stars are lacking. Maybe it's time to finally move on, but maybe Bud foster isn't the lead candidate anymore either. New blood is coming soon, and it had better come sooner than later, because seven win seasons aren't going to cut it anymore. I was cited on a Bleacher Report article for calling out Frank Beamer during the offseason, and while my call for Beamer wasn't disagreed with entirely, the question of who can step up was a good one indeed. Chad Morris or Brent Vanables, anyone?
Pittsburgh Panthers
Projected 2014 Record: 7-5
Head Coach: Paul Chryst (13-13, 3rd season)
Offense
The skill set players are almost entirely new this season, as Chad Voytik will likely start at QB. James Conner is the new RB, and Jaymar Parrish is the new starting FB. Manasseh Garner will be a new starter at WR. Of the skill position guys, only WR Tyler Boyd and TE JP Holtz returns.
Three starters will return on the line in LT Adam Bisnowaty, RG Matt Rotheram, and RT TJ Clemmings. Dorian Johnson (LG), and Artie Rowell (C) will likely be the new starters. With so many new starters, depth and inexperience will be a real problem.
Defense
There could be some real experience issues up front for the Panthers, as only DE David Durham returns on the line. Anthony Gonzalez and Todd Thomas are back at LB, but sophomore Matt Galambos will bring more youth and inexperience at LB.
Lafayette Pitts is back at CB, and FS Ray Vinopal will be back in the secondary, but there will be new starters at SS and CB. Sophomores Titus Howard (CB) and Terrish Webb (FS) will likely step into starting roles.
Special Teams
Chris Blewitt hit 11 of 13 FGs last fall, and returns to start at PK. The starting P job is being handed to a freshman in Ryan Winslow, and so anything can happen.
Opening Game
8/30 Delaware
Final Overview
Thank the Gods for manageable schedules, as due to that fact the Panthers will manage to find seven wins. If injuries set in, however, reaching that win total could be lofty. There is little depth, and every offensive skill position is loaded with questions and issues. Paul Chryst needs to get this ship running in a straight line rather than the zigzag course it has taken for the last two seasons.
NC State Wolfpack
Projected 2014 Record: 7-5
Head Coach: Dave Doeren (3-9, 2nd season)
Offense
Jacoby Brissett finally gets to show off his arm in 2014 after sitting out last fall after transferring from Florida. Brissett had a huge spring, and that news could not be any better for Coach Doeren after a trio of QBs played like a wreck last fall.
Shadrach Thompson should benefit at RB from an emergence of a QB, as he struggled to gain 768 yards last fall as teams stacked up because they didn't respect the pass. There will be a trio of new full time starters at WR, so that could be a problem, as Bryan Underwood and his 32 receptions are as good as it gets from this group based on 2013 numbers. Someone must step up big. It's possible that Bo Hines steps in and blows up as a freshman.
TE David Grinnage returns as the starter, but caught just 14 passes last fall.
Defense
The front six is in trouble, as only DE Art Norman returns in the 4-2 front. A freshman may be starting at DT in BJ Hill, so depth will likely be an issue on the line.
MJ Salahuddin and Rodman Noel are both upperclassmen at LB, so there is some veteran presence there.
The secondary returns three starters in CB Juston Burris, CB Jack Tocho, and S Hakim Jones. This unit ranked 47th against the pass last fall. The bad news is that both new starters at safety may likely be freshmen in Josh Jones and Germaine Pratt.
Special Teams
Niklas Sade will be back as PK after hitting 19 FGs last fall. Will Baumann is back at Punter after averaging over 42 yards per punt. This will be an area of strength.
Opening Game
8/30 Georgia Southern
Final Overview
There are many questions and lacking depth on this roster, but there should be enough there for a major uptick in victories from 3 to 7. A bowl game is right there to grab in a wide open conference. Dave Doeren is a solid coach who has much rebuilding to do. Look for solid progress despite young players getting a bunch of reps this season. The schedule is light, especially early on, so getting some wins early is a must.
The following teams are projected to finish with losing records and will miss bowl games...
Syracuse Orange
Projected 2014 Record: 5-7
Head Coach: Scott Shafer (7-6, 2nd season)
The Good
Almost every skill position player returns on offense, but all of them need to step up in a big way for the Orange to get over the hump and match or better their record last fall. Terrel Hunt has a bit of skill, but he needs to get out and lead. Ashton Broyid and Jarrod West had solid springs, and improvement starts with them making plays. There is depth at RB if someone would just step up and be the guy.
Experience on the O line is deep with Sean hickey and Rob Trudo, who have a combined 45 starts between them.
Eight starters return on defense, including 5 of the front 7. Marcus Coleman looks to be the new starter on the D line at DT, while Marquez Hodge should step up to take the open LB spot. The LB corps (Dyshawn Davis and Cameron Lynch) should be a strength, but could still improve.
The secondary returns both safeties in Durell Eskridge and Darius Kelly, and Brandon Reddish is also back at CB.
The Bad
Depth in the secondary behind the starters is a real problem, and the Orange ranked just 63rd against the pass last season. The defense also ranked just 56th in scoring defense.
The offense wasn't very good last fall, and ranked just 98th in scoring.
The O Line has to be rebuilt, and that may not help the passing game that ranked just 102nd last fall.
The defense has not had much success rushing the passer, and that may not get much better if the secondary doesn't step up and improve coverage.
The middle of the schedule is just brutal.
Boston College Eagles
Projected 2014 Record: 5-7
Head Coach: Steve Addazio (7-6, 2nd season)
The Good
The secondary returns every starter from last season.
When you look at the overall state of the program, 5 wins would be a huge positive.
The Bad
The Eagles have lost all everything RB Andre Williams, and many other offensive skill players. As a matter of fact, only three starters return, and they are all on the line, and include no tackles.
Despite every starter returning in the secondary, that secondary ranked 111th against the pass last fall.
The schedule is just a mess for the Eagles, not just in conference, but out of conference as well, with games against USC and Colorado State.
There is absolutely no depth at all, anywhere. What the hell has this staff been doing when it comes to recruiting? What the hell was Frank Spaziani doing when he was collecting a paycheck as coach of this program?
On defense, there is only one returning starter on the line, and only one returning starter at LB.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Projected 2014 Record: 4-8
Head Coach: Paul Johnson (47-32, 7th season)
The Good
Both receivers return, but Tech doesn't pass. Maybe that should change this fall a bit?
Three starters return on the line. That's important because of injuries to the backfield in spring ball may bleed over to the fall, and better protection could help keep that issue from getting worse.
The defense was strong last fall, and enough talent returns to keep the unit playing top flight football.
The Bad
Vad Lee has transferred out to James Madison, and the QB battle isn't going well. Justin Thomas is heading the battle, but he has no real hold on the job.
Synlyn Days and Deon Hill are expected to start at the A Back spot, but both had some concerning injury issues in the spring, and missed a good deal of practice.
The defense was solid against the run, ranking 11th nationally, but the secondary couldn't stop the pass, ranking 83rd.
With injury issues in the backfield and a waning QB situation, Tech will likely be a rambling wreck on offense, and their ranking of 26th in scoring will likely take a large hit.
The schedule is tougher than it looks, especially in the middle.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Projected 2014 Record: 3-9
Head Coach: Dave Clawson (1st season)
The Good
Three starters return on the line. They are the only starters returning on offense.
Brandon Chubb and Hunter Williams are returning at LB, and are the only starters back in the front seven.
Merill Noel and Kevin Johnson have the CB spots locked down, and SS Ryan Johnson got valuable starting experience as a freshman last season.
Alex Kinal will be back at Punter, and Chad Hedlund is back at PK, but he must get stronger and must get more opportunites after hitting 8 of 12 FGs last season.
The Bad
There are no starters on offense returning at any skill positions, and the guys who are starting are largely young and inexperienced.
The entire D Line will be brand new starters, even though they are all upperclassmen.
The offense was absolutely awful last fall, ranking 114th in scoring, 116th rushing, 96th in passing, and 118th in total offense. That was enough to get a coaching change made.
Dave Clawson has never been a huge success as a coach, and may not have been even remotely the best choice for the job.
Virginia Cavaliers
Projected 2014 Record: 2-10
Head Coach: Mike London (18-31, 5th season)
The Good
There could be a QB change, so that's a good thing. Greyson Lambert is in line to take the job.
Kevin Parks was the first 1000 yard rusher in ten years for the Cavs last fall, and if the line improves, he could get there again.
Three starters return on a line that did manage to produce a half decent back in Parks last fall.
The entire secondary returns this fall, and they were the best part of a largely terrible defense last fall. They will be a key group for DC Jon Tenuta to lean on.
The Bad
It starts at the top, as Mike London really showed his nine lives after surviving the firing squad after last season.
The offense ranked 109th last season and the defense ranked 98th. It can only get better. Seriously.
The conference also comes off of the high gained by Florida State taking the final BCS title in a thrilling win over Auburn last January, breaking a long string of titles won by the SEC. Jameis Winston added to the fun by taking a Heisman home, but tarnished the accomplishment at times with major off field issues, including aborted charges of sexual assault, and an ill advised attempt at shop lifting some crab legs from a Publix Market.
The conference, as a whole, after FSU has question marks abounding, as several schools have huge holes to plug heading into 2014. Sources had major problems discerning favorites after FSU, with as many as four different programs tabbed to win the seemingly wide open Coastal division.
Projected Order of Finish
Atlantic
1. Florida State
2. Clemson
3. Louisville
4. Syracuse
5. Boston College
6. NC State
7. Wake Forest
Coastal
1. Duke
2. North Carolina
3. Miami
4. Virginia Tech
5. Pittsburgh
6. Georgia Tech
7. Virginia
Most Overrated
Miami
Most Underrated
Duke
Coaches on the Hot Seat
Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech
Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech
Mike London, Virginia
Best Coach
Jimbo Fisher, Florida State
Worst Coach
Mike London, Virginia
Conference Preview
The following teams are projected to finish with winning records/bowl births
Florida State Seminoles
Projected 2014 Record: 12-0
Head Coach: Jimbo Fisher (45-10, 5th season)
Offense
When you have Jameis Winston at QB, everything will be ok, even when you have several other losses that would be detrimental to most programs. The RS sophomore passed for over 4000 yards and scored 44 times as a freshman last season, and his impact was felt immediately in a season opening win at Pitt. He is likely to be even more developed in 2014, and that is great news for Jimbo and Company.
James Wilder is gone at RB, but Karlos Williams is promising. He rushed for over 700 yards last season, and averaged over 8 yards per carry. Look for Williams to carry 20 plus carries per game in 2014. Freddie Stevenson will start at RB as well in the pro set offense, and will likely hold a role like Williams had last season.
Rashad Greene racked up 1128 yards receiving last season, and he's back to lead a corps of young, but talented receivers. Greene will be Winston's best friend in 2014. Christian Green, a senior, is going to need to step up well beyond what he's done to date to make up for the fact that Greene will see multiple double teams.
TE Nick O'Leary, largely thought to be one of the best TEs in the nation, should be a welcome return for the Noles, and will also help take pressure off of Greene in the passing game.
The line is a huge strength for FSU, and will be a key to a run at another title. Cameron Erving (LT) and Josue Matias (LG) will anchor the left side, while Bobby Hart (RT) and Tre' Jackson (RG) will anchor on the right. The lone new starter is C Austin Barron, and even he has five career starts to his credit.
Defense
Charles Kelly comes in as the new DC with plenty of spots to fill, but he has many toys to play with, as Fisher and crew have recruited like maniacs.
Junior Mario Edwards returns to start at LDE, and he will be joined as a starting returnee on the line by junior Eddie Goldman. Nile Lawrence-Staple and Desmond Staple will likely rotate in the open RDT spot. With the LDE open, Chris Casher is leading the pack to get the start heading into camp.
Terrence Smith is the lone returning LB this fall. He finished with 59 tackles last fall, and will need to step up big this season as the new default starter in the middle of the defense. Ukeme Eligwe and Reggie Northrup emerged last spring to be the likely starters in the two open spots.
The corners are set with Jalen Ramsey and PJ Williams coming back for another go. Williams is the better of the two, breaking up 7 passes with 3 picks in 2013.
Both Safety spots remain open, as Tyler Hunter and Nate Andrews head into fall camp in the lead for those spots.
Special Teams
Roberto Aguayo won the Lou Groza award last fall after hitting 21 of 22 FGs. With him back at PK, the Noles are a lock to score. Cason Beatty returns at P, but he was hardly dependable, and his problems are still evident heading into fall. FSU may need to find an able replacement.
Opening Game
8/30 Oklahoma State at Arlington, Texas
Final Overview
FSU is going to make a run at their second consecutive title this season, and may still be one of the deeper and more talented team in the nation. Jimbo Fisher has finally turned the corner for the Noles, and there is no looking back. The schedule is highly manageable, and when you return both the Heisman and Groza award winners, expectations should be high. FSU is my lock to be one of the four teams to play in the first championship tournament in 2014.
Clemson Tigers
Projected 2014 Record: 9-3
Head Coach: Dabo Swinney (51-23, 6th season)
Offense
The Tigers found an able replacement for the departed Tahj Boyd in the spring in Cole Stoudt. Stoudt is a more than able passer, and is also athletic enough to make please on the run as well. He isn't Boyd, but he'll do nicely.
The RB position is wide open heading into camp, with Zac Brooks tentatively holding the lead. DJ Howard, Wayne Gallman, and CJ Davidson all figure into the mix.
Adam Humphries is the lone returning starter at WR, but he is more of a possession type guy, and not a true unit leader or top flight target. Charone Peak blew his ACL last September, but should be ready to fill a spot. Mike Williams is the likely leader of the group, and coaches are high on his ability. There is plenty of young talent on the bench, but there is very little in the way of experience. Stanton Seckinger is back at TE, but is not a huge receiving threat.
The interior line returns intact with LG David Beasly, C Ryan Norton, and RG Kalon Davis, but both tackles must be replaced. Isaiah Battle and Shaq Anthony figure into the open tackle jobs heading into the fall.
Defense
The D line figures to be a focal point in 2014, as three of four return , including the monster that can be DE Vic Beasley, who finished with 23.5 TFLs in 2013. Corey Crawford lines up at end on the other side, while Grady Jarrett returns in the idle at tackle. Senior DeShawn Williams will be the lone new starter, but he has experience.
Stephone Anthony returns at MLB, and is coming off a season where he collected 131 tackles. Travis Blanks returns as well, but health is an issue with him as well as with new starter Tony Steward, as both have a history with torn ACLs.
The secondary is a huge guessing game coming in, as three of four starters have departed. Only Safety Robert Smith returns. Martin Jenkins and Mackensie Alexander have the lead to start at Corner as we head into the fall., and Jayron Kearse.
Special Teams
The loss of Chandler Catanzaro is huge. Junior Ammon Lakip finished spring with the job, but he is an unknown.
Bradley Pinion was strong on directional kicks, but his overall average was garbage as a sophomore. More will be needed from him.
Opening Game
8/30 at Georgia
Final Overview
There are several questions heading into the season, and I find it highly unlikely that the Tigers will make a run at the ACC title. The schedule in the first month is absolutely brutal, as Clemson travels to Georgia and Florida State, and gets North Carolina, and later Louisville, at home. The back end of the schedule is loaded with opportunities for big wins, and the Tigers will have to make the most of it. Overall, the offense is too muddled right now to make much of skill wise.
Miami Hurricanes
Projected 2014 Record: 7-5
Head Coach: Al Golden (22-15, 4th season)
Offense
The Hurricanes are just a mess at QB heading into the fall, as potential new starter Ryan Williams blew his ACL. Now the job goes to freshman Kevin Olsen, and he was a disaster in the spring game. fellow freshmen Brad Kaaya and Malik Dozier are both definitely still in the race.
Duke Johnson is a beast at RB, but ifthere is no QB in place, defenses will just stack the box and make the QBs throw as they crush the run. Johnson does have an injury history, as he broke his ankle last season. His backup was Dallas Crawford, but he moves to Safety. The new backup is freshman Joseph Yearby, who enrolled early. He too got hurt in spring ball, so there is a banged up group hanging out in the backfield.
The receivers all have some experience, but are all starting for the first time regularly. Stacy Coley, Phillip Dorsett, and Herb Waters are all the starters heading into the fall camp, and Malcolm Lewis is the 4th. The problem is...you guessed it...Dorsett and Lewis were both injured much of 2013. Clive Walford is the starter at TE, a role he held in 2013.
The left side of the line returns from Center out in Shane McDermott (C), Jon Feliciano (LG), and Ereck Flowers (LT). The right side of the line is being rebuilt, and the leaders are both sophomores in Taylor Gadbois (RT), and Danny Isidora (RG).
Defense
The defense gave up 26 points or more in each of their final six games, including the bowl, last season. They gave up 3rd down conversions like Halloween candy, and looked highly unlike historic Miami defenses.
The D Line is undersized, and lacks depth. Olsen Pierre does bring some size in the middle of the line at tackle, as does new starter Calvin Heurtelou. DE Anthony Chickillo returns at End, but he severely lacks bulk, and new starter at DE Tyriq McCord looks more like a LB than a DE.
Denzel Perryman is a beast at LB, and will hopefully spark improvement on the defensive side of the football, and collected 108 tackles last fall. Thurston Ambrister and Raphael Kirby are the likely new starters outside.
Two starters return in the secondary. Tracy Howard is back at Corner, while Rayshawn Jenkins is back at Safety. Antonio Crawford will likely step into the opening at CB, while converted RB Dallas Crawford will line up at Safety.
Special Teams
Matt Goudis will handle both PK and P duties this fall unless another punter can be found in camp. He hit 13 of 17 FG attempts last fall, and with the offense likely set to struggle early, he will need to step up production in a big way, and find more consistency to boot.
Opening Game
9/1 at Louisville
Final Overview
Some outfits picked the Canes to win the ACC Coastal this season. The division is wide open, but you'd have to be a Cane die hard or smoking crack to truly believe that this edition of Miami football could pull that off in 2014. The offense is going to struggle, and the defense was a complete train wreck at the end of last season, and I see no signs of it getting better all too quickly. Miami will probably squeeze out seven wins, and it will be tough to get there.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Projected 2014 Record: 7-5
Head Coach: Larry Fedora (15-10, 3rd season)
Offense
Marquise Williams made a huge splash over the second half of last season, and gave UNC a QB that they knew they could lean on. Williams should make some strides this season as he returns for his junior season after passing for 15 TDs over the final 5 games. There actually is a QB battle going on in camp, however, as Larry Fedora is pulling the moron move of allowing Mitch Trubisky to compete for the job. That is a huge mistake. I've never been a huge Fedora fan, and if he even leans toward playing both QBs this fall in a two QB system, then he basically backs up my thoughts of his coaching skills, because 2 QB systems rarely ever win.
Nobody is really paying attention to the RB spot, but for what it's worth, TJ Logan had a strong spring, and will return to the starting role.
The receiving corps is solid, as TJ Thorpe and Quinshad Davis return as starters. Davis had 10 TDs last season, and is the number one target. Kick return man extraordinaire Ryan Switzer will step up into a starting role, and will still return kicks.
Jack Tabb returns at TE, but he won't be the guy that Eric Ebron was.
Three starters return are back on the line in Jon Heck (LT), Caleb Peterson (LG), and Landon Turner (RG).
Defense
The line, which has been loaded with talent over the last several years, has finally seemed to have thin out. Only one starter returns this fall in Ethan Farmer (DT). Jessie Rodgers and Junior Gronkonde will likely start at DE, with Justin Thomason will likely fill the open spot at DT.
Travis Hughes and Jeff Schoettmer return to give the Heels returning starters at both LB spots in the 4-2-5 defense. Schoettmer is the leading returning tackler on the team.
The strength of the secondary will be the safeties, who all return. Norkeithus Otis, Tim Scott, and Dominique Green will man those spots. However, both corners must be replaced.
Special Teams
Thomas Moore returns at PK, but only connected on 14 of 19 FGs last fall. Tommy Hibbard was highly strong last fall at Punter, averaging 43 yards per kick.
Opening Game
8/30 Liberty
Final Overview
UNC finished strong last fall after a horrid start, but they also lost some serious talent that provided the spark to make that run. This team could go either way, and the new starters on defense may very well carry the day. If the defense can't keep up with recent tradition, then it may be a long season.
Louisville Cardinals
Projected 2014 Record: 10-2
Head Coach: Bobby Petrino (41-9, 5th season...1st season back)
Offense
Teddy Bridgewater is gone, and Will Gardner is the new guy at the trigger now. Gardner emerged from the pack near the end of spring ball, but he is barely holding on to the job heading into the fall.
Dominique Brown is really the power back in the offense, but Petrino will also run Auburn transfer Michael Dyer and LJ Scott often.
DeVante Parker gave up a shot at the NFL draft to return, and is one of the best in the nation. Eli Rogers and James Quick will both be new starters this fall.
TE Gerald Christian really blew up in spring ball, and may be emerging as a serious receiving threat.
Three starters return on the line in LT Jamon Brown, LG John Miller, and RG Jake Smith. Sophomore Tobijah Hughley will likely start at Center, while Aaron Epps has emerged as the leader at RT.
Defense
The defense could be a bit of a mess this season, as only four starters return. Nobody returns on the D line. BJ DuBose and Sheldon Rankins will step up at DE, while DeAngelo Brown lines up at NT.
Lorenzo Mauldin and James Burgess will add some veteran presence at LB on a unit that needs exactly that. Deiontrez Mount and Keith Brown will step into the open starting jobs at LB, and both have been in the program for a while, so neither is all that new to the job.
The corners are set with Charles Gaines and Terrell Floyd returning, but both Safeties need replacing. Gerod Hollman and James Sample will be ling up at SS and FS respectively.
Special Teams
John Wallace had a solid season last fall when he hit 20 of 24 FG attempts. Ryan Johnson returns at Punter after averaging 41.2 yards per punt last fall.
Opening Game
9/1 Miami
Final Overview
With Teddy Bridgewater gone, Louisville may be in for an era of transition. That could mean a step back, but I believe that the Cardinals are going to exceed expectations and win ten games in 2014. It's a wide open conference outside of Florida State, and so why can't Louisville succeed? They won't beat FSU, but a great bowl bid is in line if the Cards meet my expectations. Bobby Petrino's return virtually guarantees a surprising finish.
Duke Blue Devils
Projected 2014 Record: 11-1
Head Coach: David Cutliffe (31-44, 7th season)
Offense
Anthony Boone returns at QB after a huge breakthrough season in 2013. Boone has the QB job all to himself this season, and will have his top target back in Jamison Crowder. This is really the best QB/WR combo in the ACC, and one of the best in college football. Max McCarthy and Isaac Blakeney also return at WR, as does TE Braxton Deaver, giving Boone a more than solid WR/TE corps to support him.
Shaquille Powell will be come into his junior season as the starting RB. Senior Josh Snead will also get some solid carries. This could be a setback position after Jela Duncan was kicked out of school, but I don't believe that Duke misses a beat without him.
The line could bring everything crashing down if two new starters don't step up. LT Takoby Cofield, C Matt Skura, and RG Laken Tomlinson are all back as starters. Tanner Stone is the likely new starter as a sophomore, and all eyes could be on him to see how he steps up. Lucas Patrick will likely start at LG.
Defense
Duke runs a 4-2-5 defense, and they are thin on the front four. NT Jamal Bruce is the lone returning starter on the line, but there is strength and experience in the new starters (Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo and Dezmond Johnson at DE, Carlos Way at DT).
Both LBs return in Kelby Brown and David Helton. Helton led the aCC in tackles per game with 9.5 last season, and Brown was just a shade under 9 per game himself.
All three safeties return in Jeremy Cash, DeVon Edwards, and Deondre Singleton. Edwards and Singleton started as freshmen last fall.
Both corners will be new in Breon Borders and Bryon Fields, who will also both start as sophomores.
Special Teams
Ross Martin was one of the best kickers in the nation last season, when he hit on 23 of 27 kicks. Will Monday is back at Punter, and is also a star after averaging 43.7 yards per punt last fall.
Opening Game
8/30 Elon
Final Overview
This will not be a popular pick, but I think that Duke is likely the second best team in the ACC other than Florida State this fall. I like their mix of veterans and young players, and they return key athletes on offense. The defense fell apart in the ACC title game, and collapsed in the Peach Bowl against Texas A&M, but there was a great deal of youth playing last fall, and those mistakes won't be repeated this season. The schedule sets up very nicely early, and they miss Florida State, Clemson, and Louisville this season. That helps. I really love Duke's chances.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Projected 2014 Record: 7-5
Head Coach: Frank Beamer (224-109-2, 28th season)
Offense
The maddeningly inconsistent Logan Thomas has moved on at QB for the Hokies, but that doesn;t mean that the position will be better this year over last. Texas Tech transfer Michael Brewer is likely the starter, but that battle will move into fall camp with Brendan Motley and Mark Leal.
Trey Edmunds will return as the starting RB, and will share carries with JC Coleman. Neither one of them really stands out to this point, so we will see what they bring this fall. Sam rogers returns at FB.
Demitri Knowles and Josh Stanford will both be back at WR, but neither receiver broke over 50 catches last fall. One of them, or both needs to step this season, but how much of their lacking star power was a result of on and off QB play last season?
Junior Ryan Malleck will step in as the new starter at TE.
Both Tackles (Jonathon McLaughlin and Laurence Gibson) return, as does Caleb Farris at Center. Both Guards have to be replaced.
Defense
The defense could be a total mess this season, as only four starters return.
Luther Maddy is the only starter returning in the entire front seven in 2014 at DT. The rest of the line and the entire LB corps must be replaced in the starter ranks.
The secondary is much better off, as only one CB needs to be replaced. Kendall Fuller is a star at CB, while Detrick Bonner and Kyshoen Jarrett could be poised for big seasons at Safety. Brandon Facyson will likely be the new staring CB.
There are several upperclassmen looking to step up into the starting ranks on defense, but depth could be a huge concern.
Special Teams
There are three PKs competing heading into the fall for the job, and they are led by Richmond transfer Remington Hinshaw. AJ Hughes is returning to his punting duties after averaging over 44 yards per punt in a huge season for him.
Opening Game
8/30 William & Mary
Final Overview
Frank Beamer is slipping, and there is no doubt of that. His dominant days are behind him a Tech, and UCLA exposed that in a very big way at the Sun Bowl last December in a 42-12 crushing defeat. The talent level has severely dipped, especially at QB, where it's been a good long while since the Hokies have had one of note. The running game doesn't pound like it used to, and the defensive stars are lacking. Maybe it's time to finally move on, but maybe Bud foster isn't the lead candidate anymore either. New blood is coming soon, and it had better come sooner than later, because seven win seasons aren't going to cut it anymore. I was cited on a Bleacher Report article for calling out Frank Beamer during the offseason, and while my call for Beamer wasn't disagreed with entirely, the question of who can step up was a good one indeed. Chad Morris or Brent Vanables, anyone?
Pittsburgh Panthers
Projected 2014 Record: 7-5
Head Coach: Paul Chryst (13-13, 3rd season)
Offense
The skill set players are almost entirely new this season, as Chad Voytik will likely start at QB. James Conner is the new RB, and Jaymar Parrish is the new starting FB. Manasseh Garner will be a new starter at WR. Of the skill position guys, only WR Tyler Boyd and TE JP Holtz returns.
Three starters will return on the line in LT Adam Bisnowaty, RG Matt Rotheram, and RT TJ Clemmings. Dorian Johnson (LG), and Artie Rowell (C) will likely be the new starters. With so many new starters, depth and inexperience will be a real problem.
Defense
There could be some real experience issues up front for the Panthers, as only DE David Durham returns on the line. Anthony Gonzalez and Todd Thomas are back at LB, but sophomore Matt Galambos will bring more youth and inexperience at LB.
Lafayette Pitts is back at CB, and FS Ray Vinopal will be back in the secondary, but there will be new starters at SS and CB. Sophomores Titus Howard (CB) and Terrish Webb (FS) will likely step into starting roles.
Special Teams
Chris Blewitt hit 11 of 13 FGs last fall, and returns to start at PK. The starting P job is being handed to a freshman in Ryan Winslow, and so anything can happen.
Opening Game
8/30 Delaware
Final Overview
Thank the Gods for manageable schedules, as due to that fact the Panthers will manage to find seven wins. If injuries set in, however, reaching that win total could be lofty. There is little depth, and every offensive skill position is loaded with questions and issues. Paul Chryst needs to get this ship running in a straight line rather than the zigzag course it has taken for the last two seasons.
NC State Wolfpack
Projected 2014 Record: 7-5
Head Coach: Dave Doeren (3-9, 2nd season)
Offense
Jacoby Brissett finally gets to show off his arm in 2014 after sitting out last fall after transferring from Florida. Brissett had a huge spring, and that news could not be any better for Coach Doeren after a trio of QBs played like a wreck last fall.
Shadrach Thompson should benefit at RB from an emergence of a QB, as he struggled to gain 768 yards last fall as teams stacked up because they didn't respect the pass. There will be a trio of new full time starters at WR, so that could be a problem, as Bryan Underwood and his 32 receptions are as good as it gets from this group based on 2013 numbers. Someone must step up big. It's possible that Bo Hines steps in and blows up as a freshman.
TE David Grinnage returns as the starter, but caught just 14 passes last fall.
Defense
The front six is in trouble, as only DE Art Norman returns in the 4-2 front. A freshman may be starting at DT in BJ Hill, so depth will likely be an issue on the line.
MJ Salahuddin and Rodman Noel are both upperclassmen at LB, so there is some veteran presence there.
The secondary returns three starters in CB Juston Burris, CB Jack Tocho, and S Hakim Jones. This unit ranked 47th against the pass last fall. The bad news is that both new starters at safety may likely be freshmen in Josh Jones and Germaine Pratt.
Special Teams
Niklas Sade will be back as PK after hitting 19 FGs last fall. Will Baumann is back at Punter after averaging over 42 yards per punt. This will be an area of strength.
Opening Game
8/30 Georgia Southern
Final Overview
There are many questions and lacking depth on this roster, but there should be enough there for a major uptick in victories from 3 to 7. A bowl game is right there to grab in a wide open conference. Dave Doeren is a solid coach who has much rebuilding to do. Look for solid progress despite young players getting a bunch of reps this season. The schedule is light, especially early on, so getting some wins early is a must.
The following teams are projected to finish with losing records and will miss bowl games...
Syracuse Orange
Projected 2014 Record: 5-7
Head Coach: Scott Shafer (7-6, 2nd season)
The Good
Almost every skill position player returns on offense, but all of them need to step up in a big way for the Orange to get over the hump and match or better their record last fall. Terrel Hunt has a bit of skill, but he needs to get out and lead. Ashton Broyid and Jarrod West had solid springs, and improvement starts with them making plays. There is depth at RB if someone would just step up and be the guy.
Experience on the O line is deep with Sean hickey and Rob Trudo, who have a combined 45 starts between them.
Eight starters return on defense, including 5 of the front 7. Marcus Coleman looks to be the new starter on the D line at DT, while Marquez Hodge should step up to take the open LB spot. The LB corps (Dyshawn Davis and Cameron Lynch) should be a strength, but could still improve.
The secondary returns both safeties in Durell Eskridge and Darius Kelly, and Brandon Reddish is also back at CB.
The Bad
Depth in the secondary behind the starters is a real problem, and the Orange ranked just 63rd against the pass last season. The defense also ranked just 56th in scoring defense.
The offense wasn't very good last fall, and ranked just 98th in scoring.
The O Line has to be rebuilt, and that may not help the passing game that ranked just 102nd last fall.
The defense has not had much success rushing the passer, and that may not get much better if the secondary doesn't step up and improve coverage.
The middle of the schedule is just brutal.
Boston College Eagles
Projected 2014 Record: 5-7
Head Coach: Steve Addazio (7-6, 2nd season)
The Good
The secondary returns every starter from last season.
When you look at the overall state of the program, 5 wins would be a huge positive.
The Bad
The Eagles have lost all everything RB Andre Williams, and many other offensive skill players. As a matter of fact, only three starters return, and they are all on the line, and include no tackles.
Despite every starter returning in the secondary, that secondary ranked 111th against the pass last fall.
The schedule is just a mess for the Eagles, not just in conference, but out of conference as well, with games against USC and Colorado State.
There is absolutely no depth at all, anywhere. What the hell has this staff been doing when it comes to recruiting? What the hell was Frank Spaziani doing when he was collecting a paycheck as coach of this program?
On defense, there is only one returning starter on the line, and only one returning starter at LB.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Projected 2014 Record: 4-8
Head Coach: Paul Johnson (47-32, 7th season)
The Good
Both receivers return, but Tech doesn't pass. Maybe that should change this fall a bit?
Three starters return on the line. That's important because of injuries to the backfield in spring ball may bleed over to the fall, and better protection could help keep that issue from getting worse.
The defense was strong last fall, and enough talent returns to keep the unit playing top flight football.
The Bad
Vad Lee has transferred out to James Madison, and the QB battle isn't going well. Justin Thomas is heading the battle, but he has no real hold on the job.
Synlyn Days and Deon Hill are expected to start at the A Back spot, but both had some concerning injury issues in the spring, and missed a good deal of practice.
The defense was solid against the run, ranking 11th nationally, but the secondary couldn't stop the pass, ranking 83rd.
With injury issues in the backfield and a waning QB situation, Tech will likely be a rambling wreck on offense, and their ranking of 26th in scoring will likely take a large hit.
The schedule is tougher than it looks, especially in the middle.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Projected 2014 Record: 3-9
Head Coach: Dave Clawson (1st season)
The Good
Three starters return on the line. They are the only starters returning on offense.
Brandon Chubb and Hunter Williams are returning at LB, and are the only starters back in the front seven.
Merill Noel and Kevin Johnson have the CB spots locked down, and SS Ryan Johnson got valuable starting experience as a freshman last season.
Alex Kinal will be back at Punter, and Chad Hedlund is back at PK, but he must get stronger and must get more opportunites after hitting 8 of 12 FGs last season.
The Bad
There are no starters on offense returning at any skill positions, and the guys who are starting are largely young and inexperienced.
The entire D Line will be brand new starters, even though they are all upperclassmen.
The offense was absolutely awful last fall, ranking 114th in scoring, 116th rushing, 96th in passing, and 118th in total offense. That was enough to get a coaching change made.
Dave Clawson has never been a huge success as a coach, and may not have been even remotely the best choice for the job.
Virginia Cavaliers
Projected 2014 Record: 2-10
Head Coach: Mike London (18-31, 5th season)
The Good
There could be a QB change, so that's a good thing. Greyson Lambert is in line to take the job.
Kevin Parks was the first 1000 yard rusher in ten years for the Cavs last fall, and if the line improves, he could get there again.
Three starters return on a line that did manage to produce a half decent back in Parks last fall.
The entire secondary returns this fall, and they were the best part of a largely terrible defense last fall. They will be a key group for DC Jon Tenuta to lean on.
The Bad
It starts at the top, as Mike London really showed his nine lives after surviving the firing squad after last season.
The offense ranked 109th last season and the defense ranked 98th. It can only get better. Seriously.
Friday, July 11, 2014
2014 College Football Preview: American Athletic Conference
In 2014, the conference that was formerly known as the Big East now resembles something more of a Conference USA flair than anything, and in the eyes of the new college football playoff people, that's exactly the weight it will garner when it comes to altering the scope and scale of the 2014 season and ultimate championship. The AAC is no longer part of anything of the scale that it represented under the old BCS system. What's worse is the fact that the league lost their most recognizable championship competitor in Louisville, who bolts for the ACC in 2014. Rutgers is also gone, as they head to the Big 10. All of this leaves UCF as the only legitimate threat to the big boys as things stand now.
No matter what happens, and who joins moving forward, the days of this conference being a national player are basically over with, legitimately. Of course, this conference never really was taken seriously on that stage to begin with, even before it fell apart during realignment.
Predicted Order of Finish
1. Cincinnati
2. UCF
3. East Carolina
4. Houston
5. SMU
6. U Conn
7. USF
8. Tulane
9. Memphis
10. Temple
11. Tulsa
Most Overrated
Cincinnati
Most Underrated
East Carolina
Coaches on the Hot Seat
June Jones, SMU
Justin Fuente, Memphis
Bill Blankenship, Tulsa
Best Coach
Ruffin McNeill, East Carolina
Worst Coach
Bill Blankenship, Tulsa
Conference Preview
The following teams are likely to finish with winning records:
Cincinnati Bearcats
Projected 2014 Record: 10-2
Head Coach: Tommy Tuberville (9-4, 2nd Season)
Offense
The Bearcats are handing over the QB reins to Gunner Kiel, the once highly touted QB who now leaves much to be seen as he lands at his third school (if you count both Indiana and Notre Dame, 4th if you count his flirtations with LSU). He has not played a major college snap, and UC is counting on him heavily to run this offense. It's a ton to entrust in a guy who is at this point all hype.
The good news for Kiel is that he has two wide outs returning in Shaq Washington and Chris Moore. Moore scored nine times in 2013, but Washington, who led the team in receiving, only caught one TD pass all season. Mekale McKay is the likely new starter, but is a junior. The hope is that the Bearcats can get more scoring production out of this group, who will also have a new starter at TE in sophomore DJ Dowdey.
Three starters return on the line in LT Eric Sefeld, C DeShawn Bond, and RG Parker Ehinger. Bond is just a sophomore. The good news is that the new starters are both seniors (LG Kevin Scchloemer and RT Cory Keebler.
There is bad news/good news at RB, where the top three rushers return from 2013, and Hosey Williams will likely be the primary, but expect more of a committee approach, as the Bearcats lack a sincere number one back that can carry the load.
Defense
The Bearcats return both DEs and two LBs from the front seven this fall. Silverberry Mouhon, a junior, will be joined by Terrell Hartsfield, a senior, as returning starting ends. Mouhon is definitely the power guy in this duo, as he finished second on the team with 12.5 TFLs in 2013. Senior Cameron Beard will be joined by junior Brendon Mitchell as the likely new starters at DT.
Nick Temple is the team leader on defense, and led the team with 13.5 TFLs last fall. Jeff Luc will start in the middle. The new starter will be sophomore Eric Wilson, and there will be some need for the others to cover for his youth from time to time.
Three of four starters return in the secondary. Howard Wilder joins Adrian Witty at CB (Both are seniors), while sophomore Zach Edwards returns at FS. The defense will need more production when it comes to takeaways from this group if UC is to contend for the AAC title. SS will likely go to sophomore Mike Tyson.
Special Teams
Both kicking specialists return in 2014 in PK Tony Millano and P John Lloyd. That may not be all good news. Millano was purely terrible in 2013, hitting only 7 of 17 FG attempts. He also missed two PATs last fall.
Lloyd averaged 42.7 yards per punt, saving a largely awful special teams unit from complete collapse.
Opening Game
9/12 Toledo
Final Overview
UC is largely believed to be the favorite by several sources in 2014. Therefore, I have placed them at the top of my projected finish list in the AAC. That being said, it would be easy to knock them off of their perch atop the preseason standings. There are more questions on offense than answers, and the defense, although talented, needs more productivity. If the offense comes through, and the defense finds some answers, UC could very well win this conference, but special teams can kill, and that is the biggest question that UC has coming in.
UCF Knights
Projected 2014 Record: 10-2
Head Coach: George O'Leary (72-56, 11th season)
Offense
How do you replace a QB like Blake Bortles and expect to win the conference again? Do the Knights beat a team like Baylor without him? Highly unlikely, but the Knights must move on, and the job likely goes to sophomore Justin Holman, who emerges from spring ball as the likely winner fo the job. Of course, he will have to get through fall camp to hold onto the job. Pete DiNovo, Tyler Harris, and Boise State transfer Nick Patti will be in the chase when camp opens in August.
Storm Johnson is another huge set of cleats to replace on the field at RB. William Stanback is the likely replacement, but it would be nice to see him improve on his 4.2 yard average from 2013. The starting receiving corps returns intact in Rannell Hall, JJ Worton, and Breshard Perriman. Justin Tukes will return to start at TE as well, giving the new QB some stability to work with. Every receiver in this group is a potential game changer.
The line is a big question heading into the season, as three starters must be replaced. Torrian Wilson returns at LG, while Joey Grant will also be back at Center. Chester Brown looks to be the leader at LT, and fellow sophomore Michael Campbell looks to be the leader at RT. A freshman, Aaron Evans, will get a long look and first crack at RG after redshirting last season.
Defense
There will be three new starters in the front seven for the Knights this fall. DE Thomas Niles will join DT Demetris Anderson as the returning starts on the line. Senior Jaryl Mamea looks like the new starter at DT, while junior Miles Price has the lead to obtain the starting job that is open at DE. Look for JC transfer Lance McDowell to get into the rotation at DT as well.
Terrence Plummer and Troy Gray are back at LB, with Plummer coming off of an all-conference performance in 2013. Justin McDonald is in the lead for the open LB spot, but Cincinnati transfer Errol Clarke will get snaps in fall camp after coming over from Garden City CC.
The secondary returns intact. Jordan Ozerities and Jacoby Glenn will anchor the corners, while all-conference performer Clayton Geathers and Brandon Alexander will set up at Safety.
Special Teams
Shawn Moffitt will return at PK after hitting 21 of 23 FGs last fall. Caleb Houston is also back at Punter, and averaged 42.2 yards per kick. This is yet another strength on an already strong football team.
Opening Game
8/30 Penn State at Dublin, Ireland
Final Overview
UCF was one of the best defensive teams in the nation last fall, and a bulk of that unit returns to bolster another run at the conference crown. If the Knights can lock down a QB and RB, the offense can more than do their part, as the receivers are lined up to be one of the more explosive units in the nation. The schedule lends to success, and the Knights do not play Cincinnati. One thing to remember historically about UCF...they are basically an every other year kind of team, normally following great seasons with letdown seasons. Can this be the year that the Knights finally break that chain of events?
East Carolina Pirates
Projected 2014 Record: 9-3
Head Coach: Ruffin McNeill (29-22, 5th season)
Offense
The best QB/WR combo in the conference returns to the fold in Shane Carden and Justin Hardy, both seniors, who will both be pro draft picks next spring. When these two hook up on the field, exposions occur, and the yardage piles up. Isaiah Jones also returns at WR, and will likely see many balls come his way as a result of the multiple double teams that Hardy will see. DaQuan Barnes will likely be the new starter at the third receiver slot, while Cam Worthy will likely start at the 4th receiver spot. Both tackles (Ike Harris and Tre Robertson) return up front, as does Center CJ Struyk. The Pirates need to replace both guards, and it looks as if Larry Williams and JT Boyd are in line for those two spots. Breon Allen and Chris Hairston will combine to take over at RB after the departure of Vintavious Cooper.
Defense
Only four starters return on a defense that is not exactly ever the strength of any ECU team that values offense above all. Three of those returnees are back in the front seven in DE Terrell Stanley, DE Christian Rose, and LB Zeek Bigger. In the secondary, only CB Detric Allen is the lone returnee. Senior Terry Williams will likely step up at NT in the 3-4 defense, while junior Montese Overton will likely join senior Brandon Williams and senior Maurice Falls as new starters at LB.
The secondary got torched at times last season, and it may be even more of an issue early as three new starters must step up. Josh Hawkins looks like an answer at CB, while Domonique Lennon and Lamar Ivey are expected to step up to start at S.
Special Teams
Warren Harvey returns at PK, but he will have to show major improvement to hang onto the job after hitting just 15 of 25 FG attempts in 2013. Sophomore Worth Gregory looks to have the leg up to be the new Punter heading into fall camp.
Opening Game
8/30 North Carolina Central
Final Overview
ECU brings a new kind of vibe to the AAC after leaving Conference USA only to find themselves knee deep in a conference that highly resembles the one they just left. One thing is for certain, ECU will have the most entertaining offense in the conference. That is their ace in the hole, as it may take some teams in the league time to adjust to getting used to their tempo. It also makes this team a dark horse in this conference. Ruffin McNeill is a master of getting more out of this team than he really should get, and that makes him my favorite coach in this league. The schedule is tough, but not hopeless by any means, with early challenges coming up against Virginia Tech, South Carolina, and North Carolina. They get Cincinnati on the road, but UCF comes to ECU in the season finale. The offense will be great, but the defense must adjust quickly, and special teams must improve for ECU to race to the top of a very winnable conference.
Houston Cougars
Projected 2014 Record: 9-3
Head Coach: Tony Levine (14-12, 3rd season)
Offense
Six starters return on offense for the Cougars, including QB Johnny O'Korn, who was a semi-finalist for our QB of the Year award. He passed for 3117 yards as a freshman in 2013, and he is the undisputed leader of this football team heading into the fall. Development will be key as we see how much further he can go.
Deontay Greenberry returns as one of the more dynamic receivers in the college game, and gives O'Korn a reliable target. Daniel Spencer returns for his senior season as the other returning starter at WR. The other two spots are open, and it looks like Demarcus Ayers and Greg Ward, both sophomores, will be stepping into the starting spots as fall camp begins.
Kenneth Farrow will line up as the starter at RB, but it will be more of a committee approach with Ryan Jackson sharing the carries. Combined, both backs put together a fine season, but one you would expect of a single primary back that can carry a team.
The line will be a weak point heading into 2014, as only two starters return in C Bryce Redman and RG Rowdy Harper. A trio of juniors enter the fall trying to fill the openings in LT Alex Cooper, LG Emeka Okafor, and RT Damien Parris.
Defense
Defense...yes, defense...will be a strength of this Houston Cougars 2014 edition. Ten players return with starting experience from last season, with seven returning to their roles from a season ago.
Joey Mbu returns at DT, with Trevor Harris joining him on the line at DE. Cameron Malveaux will step up full time at DE, and BJ Singleton will step up at DT. Both are sophomores.
The LB corps returns intact, as Steven Taylor, Derrick Matthews, and Efrem Oliphant all return to reprise their roles in the middle of the unit. Oliphant collected 134 tackles, and Matthews picked up 116.
Both Corners will be new full time starters, as junior William Jackson will join senior Turan Walker as the starters heading into camp. Adrian McDonald will be back at SS, while Trevon Stewart returns at FS.
Special Teams
There will be new starters at both PK and P this season, and both new starters are likely to be juniors in Kyle Bullard (PK) and Dylan Selbert (P).
Opening Game
8/29 UTSA
Final Overview
The Cougars, like ECU, are a major dark horse in the AAC this season. They will likely improve on their 8 wins overall, and should improve over their 5-3 conference marl last season. Houston will rely on a ball hawk defense to create opportunities for their high powered offense, which could alone be a key reason for the Cougars to take this thing.
The development of the line, and the further development of their young QB will be keys on offense, and the development of new starters on special teams will be big question marks as to how good this team can really be. If you are looking for a team to bet on early, this could be your target.
The following teams are unlikely to finish with winning records
SMU Mustangs
Projected 2014 Record: 5-7
Head Coach: June Jones (36-41, 7th season)
The Good
On offense, the Mustangs return three starters on the line, and two of their four starters at WR in Der'rick Thompson and Darius Joseph.
On defense, they return the defensive line returns intact, and two of four starters are back at LB in Stephon Sanders and Jonathon Yenga.
The Bad
Neal Burcham started two games last fall, and largely struggled running the offense. The playbook will have to be limited for him to hold the starting job, a prospect of which there is no guarantee. Kevin Pope is the starter heading into camp, but was playing LB last fall. The receivers are largely unproven, and that could add to the troubles expected on offense.
On defense, three of four starters in the secondary will be new, with only Hayden Greenbauer returning at S.
Both starters at PK and P are brand new.
The schedule lends for an absolutely awful start, and the only beatable team for SMU could be a game at North Texas, and even that is not a lock.
If SMU ends with five wins yet again, June Jones could be heading out the door, as he barely survived last season. The natives in Dallas are getting restless.
UConn Huskies
Projected 2014 Record: 5-7
Head Coach: Bob Diaco (1st Season)
The Good
The receiving corps returns intact, and it is the strength of the offense overall. Geremy Davis and Deshonn Foxx will be starting at WR once more, while Sean McQuillan is back at TE. Lyle McCombs is also back at RB, and should produce more, but everyone is high on freshman Arkeel Newsome as well.
Ten starters return on a defense that has always been the anchor of the team as a unit. Only junior Graham Stewart comes on as a new starter at LB, and he plenty of experience around him. Stewart is a Florida transfer.
Diaco has enough talent on hand to improve in the win column by two in his first season, but he is largely unproven.
The Bad
Despite Casey Cochrane sitting on top of the QB depth chart, there is still no clear cut number one guy to lead the offense onto the field. There could sill be a three way battle raging heading into the opener.
The offensive line won't be much of a help early, unless four new starters can gel right away. Only C Alex Maeas returns as a starter.
The defense is solid, but needs more production overall. This unit gave up 30 or more points seven times in 2014, but really started coming together over the final three games, as the Huskies gave up only 48 points in those games. That's a starting point.
Both kickers will be brand new this fall.
Memphis Tigers
Projected 2014 Record: 5-7
Head Coach: Justin Fuente (7-17, 3rd season)
The Good
Paxton Lynch largely struggled in 2013, but Fuente believes in him, and many feel that he will progress this season. He had better, because Fuente's future likely rests with him.
Brandon Hayes returns at RB after being granted an extra season of eligibility, and his abilities largely could be responsible for some heat coming off of the QB position.
Sam Craft and Tevin Jones both return at WR, and Alan Cross is back at TE, leaving Memphis with one lone new returning receiver in Kelwone Moore. The experience at WR and TE will also aid in Lynch's transition and development.
On defense, six starters return in the front seven. Martin Ifedi and Terry Redden will be the focus of the front at DE and DT respectively. Senior Tank Janks is the lone new starter in the front seven at LB.
Charles Harris is the anchor at LB, and Ryan Coleman picks up the garbage nicely.
CB should be a strength in the secondary with both Andrew Gaines and Bobby McCain returning to start.
Sophomore Jake Elliott was a real find, hitting 16 of 18 FGs last fall.
The Bad
Lynch could go belly up, and regress rather than progress, and that would kill the Tigers out of the gate.
While tackle is a strength on the line with Taylor Fallin and Al Bond returning, the entire middle of the line needs rebuilding.
While CB is a strength on defense, Safety is a weakness, as both starters are new in Fritz Etienne and Reggis Ball.
Punter is a question mark heading into camp, as the Tigers enter camp with a freshman likely to handle the job in Spencer Smith.
Temple Owls
Projected 2014 Record: 4-8
Head Coach: Matt Rhule (2-10, 2nd season)
The Good
You have to start by realizing that the Owls have potential to double their win total in 2014 from two to four. Matt Rhule is slowly building a decent program, but it's always been pissing against the wind in Philadelphia with a largely apathetic fan base that gets dwarfed by the pro sports scene.
PJ Walker returns at QB, and he had a real breakout season last fall, and with more support, he could turn a total corner this fall. The good news is he is just a sophomore, and has so much more development and likely improvement ahead of him.
Kenneth Harper and Zaire Williams both return at RB, but it sure would be nice if one of them steps up to be the power back that the offense needs.
Tyler Matekevich is the best LB that nobody has seen play, and is a lock for the NFL shortly, maybe even in 2015. He is joined by Stephaun Marshall and Nate D. Smith to give the Owls a full set of returning starters in the middle of the defense.
The Bad
Despite Walker coming off of a strong freshman campaign at QB, he will be largely tossing the ball to inexperienced receivers, as only Jalan Fitzpatrick returns as a starter. There will be a new second receiver, as well as a new starting TE.
Only one starter returns on the offensive line in Center Kyle Friend, a junior. There could be a freshman and a sophomore getting their first starts in the opener at Vanderbilt.
The D line also only boasts one returning starter in DT Matt Ioannidis. There could be three starters that are all sophomores.
The secondary also lacks starting experience, as only CB Tavon Young is back as a starter.
The kickers will be all new as well.
USF Bulls
Projected 2014 Record: 2-10
Head Coach: Willie Taggert (2-10, 2nd season)
The Good
Building traditionally starts with line, and that's the strength of this football team right now as four starters return from an offensive unit that was largely inept last fall, especially late, when the Bulls failed to score more than 21 points ten times.
Mike White is back as a sophomore at QB, and he should show signs of improvement. Steven Bench will push from his number two spot in the fall, giving the Bulls a pair of credible options at the trigger.
Andre Davis is back at WR, and Sean Price is back at TE to give the bulls experienced targets to help the QBs improve.
Defensively, the Bulls do return two of three starters in Reshard Cliett and Nigel Harris.
Senior PK Marvin Kloss is back, and as good as he was at times, he could get better this fall. Mattias Ciabatti is back at Punter, but it would be nice to see him improve on his average of 40.2 yards per punt.
The Bad
The run game was just awful last fall, and there will be a new starter at both RB and FB. That's a tough start.
The defense was largely hit and miss last fall, and there are holes everywhere. Only DE Elkino Watson returns on the line at DE.
Nate Goodwin is the only returning starter in the secondary at FS.
There are way more questions than answers on the defensive side of the football.
Willie Taggert turned Western Kentucky from a doormat to a competitor, but he has an overall losing record for his career, and has never coached at a high level until now. This may be beyond his ability to rebuild this train wreck.
Tulane Green Wave
Projected 2014 Record: 1-11
Head Coach: Curtis Johnson (9-16, 3rd season)
The Good
There isn't much to tout here. The offensive line returns three starters, so there's that on offense.
The secondary has three returning starters in Lorenzo Ross at CB, and Darien Monroe and Sam Scofield at Safety.
Nico Marley is a nice piece at OLB, but is very much undersized.
The Bad
The Wave hands the QB job to a redshirt freshman, which is normally a very bad thing. Tanner Lee gets the nod.
The running game is also being fully rebuilt, as Orleans Darkwa has departed.
With Ryan Grant gone at WR, it's time for someone to step up at WR, but there isn't anyone with Grant's talent level hanging out here.
Only two starters return in the front seven in DE Royce LaFrance and Marley.
The schedule is difficult, and I pick Tulane as an upset victim against SE Louisiana.
This is a horrible way to follow up the 2013 New Orleans Bowl bid.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Projected 2014 Record: 1-11
Head Coach: Bill Blankenship (22-17, 4th season)
The Good
TE Tyler Wilson is one of the few bright spots on this offense heading into 2014.
The line has three starters back in LT Garrett Stafford, C Dylan Foxworth, and RT Davis Walton.
Defensive line is a spot to build on for the defense, as three starters return in DE Derrick Alexander, and DTs Jesse Burbaker and Derrick Luetjen.
The secondary is solid with three returnees there as well in CBs Dwight Dobbins and Will Barrow, and S Michael Mudoh.
Both kickers return in PK Carlos Salazar and P Dalton Parks.
The Bad
The skill positions on offense are all on rebuild right now. There will be three sophomores starting in QB Dane Evans, RB James Flanders, and WR Keevan Lucas.
The LB corps is also on full rebuild mode with no starters returning, and two freshman figuring into the starting plans in CJ Gooden and Craig Sults.
Bill Blankenship had only ever been a high school head coach before landing the job as head man at Tulsa. It shows. Every season, Tulsa has slid further under Blankenship, and the heat is severely on in 2014.
No matter what happens, and who joins moving forward, the days of this conference being a national player are basically over with, legitimately. Of course, this conference never really was taken seriously on that stage to begin with, even before it fell apart during realignment.
Predicted Order of Finish
1. Cincinnati
2. UCF
3. East Carolina
4. Houston
5. SMU
6. U Conn
7. USF
8. Tulane
9. Memphis
10. Temple
11. Tulsa
Most Overrated
Cincinnati
Most Underrated
East Carolina
Coaches on the Hot Seat
June Jones, SMU
Justin Fuente, Memphis
Bill Blankenship, Tulsa
Best Coach
Ruffin McNeill, East Carolina
Worst Coach
Bill Blankenship, Tulsa
Conference Preview
The following teams are likely to finish with winning records:
Cincinnati Bearcats
Projected 2014 Record: 10-2
Head Coach: Tommy Tuberville (9-4, 2nd Season)
Offense
The Bearcats are handing over the QB reins to Gunner Kiel, the once highly touted QB who now leaves much to be seen as he lands at his third school (if you count both Indiana and Notre Dame, 4th if you count his flirtations with LSU). He has not played a major college snap, and UC is counting on him heavily to run this offense. It's a ton to entrust in a guy who is at this point all hype.
The good news for Kiel is that he has two wide outs returning in Shaq Washington and Chris Moore. Moore scored nine times in 2013, but Washington, who led the team in receiving, only caught one TD pass all season. Mekale McKay is the likely new starter, but is a junior. The hope is that the Bearcats can get more scoring production out of this group, who will also have a new starter at TE in sophomore DJ Dowdey.
Three starters return on the line in LT Eric Sefeld, C DeShawn Bond, and RG Parker Ehinger. Bond is just a sophomore. The good news is that the new starters are both seniors (LG Kevin Scchloemer and RT Cory Keebler.
There is bad news/good news at RB, where the top three rushers return from 2013, and Hosey Williams will likely be the primary, but expect more of a committee approach, as the Bearcats lack a sincere number one back that can carry the load.
Defense
The Bearcats return both DEs and two LBs from the front seven this fall. Silverberry Mouhon, a junior, will be joined by Terrell Hartsfield, a senior, as returning starting ends. Mouhon is definitely the power guy in this duo, as he finished second on the team with 12.5 TFLs in 2013. Senior Cameron Beard will be joined by junior Brendon Mitchell as the likely new starters at DT.
Nick Temple is the team leader on defense, and led the team with 13.5 TFLs last fall. Jeff Luc will start in the middle. The new starter will be sophomore Eric Wilson, and there will be some need for the others to cover for his youth from time to time.
Three of four starters return in the secondary. Howard Wilder joins Adrian Witty at CB (Both are seniors), while sophomore Zach Edwards returns at FS. The defense will need more production when it comes to takeaways from this group if UC is to contend for the AAC title. SS will likely go to sophomore Mike Tyson.
Special Teams
Both kicking specialists return in 2014 in PK Tony Millano and P John Lloyd. That may not be all good news. Millano was purely terrible in 2013, hitting only 7 of 17 FG attempts. He also missed two PATs last fall.
Lloyd averaged 42.7 yards per punt, saving a largely awful special teams unit from complete collapse.
Opening Game
9/12 Toledo
Final Overview
UC is largely believed to be the favorite by several sources in 2014. Therefore, I have placed them at the top of my projected finish list in the AAC. That being said, it would be easy to knock them off of their perch atop the preseason standings. There are more questions on offense than answers, and the defense, although talented, needs more productivity. If the offense comes through, and the defense finds some answers, UC could very well win this conference, but special teams can kill, and that is the biggest question that UC has coming in.
UCF Knights
Projected 2014 Record: 10-2
Head Coach: George O'Leary (72-56, 11th season)
Offense
How do you replace a QB like Blake Bortles and expect to win the conference again? Do the Knights beat a team like Baylor without him? Highly unlikely, but the Knights must move on, and the job likely goes to sophomore Justin Holman, who emerges from spring ball as the likely winner fo the job. Of course, he will have to get through fall camp to hold onto the job. Pete DiNovo, Tyler Harris, and Boise State transfer Nick Patti will be in the chase when camp opens in August.
Storm Johnson is another huge set of cleats to replace on the field at RB. William Stanback is the likely replacement, but it would be nice to see him improve on his 4.2 yard average from 2013. The starting receiving corps returns intact in Rannell Hall, JJ Worton, and Breshard Perriman. Justin Tukes will return to start at TE as well, giving the new QB some stability to work with. Every receiver in this group is a potential game changer.
The line is a big question heading into the season, as three starters must be replaced. Torrian Wilson returns at LG, while Joey Grant will also be back at Center. Chester Brown looks to be the leader at LT, and fellow sophomore Michael Campbell looks to be the leader at RT. A freshman, Aaron Evans, will get a long look and first crack at RG after redshirting last season.
Defense
There will be three new starters in the front seven for the Knights this fall. DE Thomas Niles will join DT Demetris Anderson as the returning starts on the line. Senior Jaryl Mamea looks like the new starter at DT, while junior Miles Price has the lead to obtain the starting job that is open at DE. Look for JC transfer Lance McDowell to get into the rotation at DT as well.
Terrence Plummer and Troy Gray are back at LB, with Plummer coming off of an all-conference performance in 2013. Justin McDonald is in the lead for the open LB spot, but Cincinnati transfer Errol Clarke will get snaps in fall camp after coming over from Garden City CC.
The secondary returns intact. Jordan Ozerities and Jacoby Glenn will anchor the corners, while all-conference performer Clayton Geathers and Brandon Alexander will set up at Safety.
Special Teams
Shawn Moffitt will return at PK after hitting 21 of 23 FGs last fall. Caleb Houston is also back at Punter, and averaged 42.2 yards per kick. This is yet another strength on an already strong football team.
Opening Game
8/30 Penn State at Dublin, Ireland
Final Overview
UCF was one of the best defensive teams in the nation last fall, and a bulk of that unit returns to bolster another run at the conference crown. If the Knights can lock down a QB and RB, the offense can more than do their part, as the receivers are lined up to be one of the more explosive units in the nation. The schedule lends to success, and the Knights do not play Cincinnati. One thing to remember historically about UCF...they are basically an every other year kind of team, normally following great seasons with letdown seasons. Can this be the year that the Knights finally break that chain of events?
East Carolina Pirates
Projected 2014 Record: 9-3
Head Coach: Ruffin McNeill (29-22, 5th season)
Offense
The best QB/WR combo in the conference returns to the fold in Shane Carden and Justin Hardy, both seniors, who will both be pro draft picks next spring. When these two hook up on the field, exposions occur, and the yardage piles up. Isaiah Jones also returns at WR, and will likely see many balls come his way as a result of the multiple double teams that Hardy will see. DaQuan Barnes will likely be the new starter at the third receiver slot, while Cam Worthy will likely start at the 4th receiver spot. Both tackles (Ike Harris and Tre Robertson) return up front, as does Center CJ Struyk. The Pirates need to replace both guards, and it looks as if Larry Williams and JT Boyd are in line for those two spots. Breon Allen and Chris Hairston will combine to take over at RB after the departure of Vintavious Cooper.
Defense
Only four starters return on a defense that is not exactly ever the strength of any ECU team that values offense above all. Three of those returnees are back in the front seven in DE Terrell Stanley, DE Christian Rose, and LB Zeek Bigger. In the secondary, only CB Detric Allen is the lone returnee. Senior Terry Williams will likely step up at NT in the 3-4 defense, while junior Montese Overton will likely join senior Brandon Williams and senior Maurice Falls as new starters at LB.
The secondary got torched at times last season, and it may be even more of an issue early as three new starters must step up. Josh Hawkins looks like an answer at CB, while Domonique Lennon and Lamar Ivey are expected to step up to start at S.
Special Teams
Warren Harvey returns at PK, but he will have to show major improvement to hang onto the job after hitting just 15 of 25 FG attempts in 2013. Sophomore Worth Gregory looks to have the leg up to be the new Punter heading into fall camp.
Opening Game
8/30 North Carolina Central
Final Overview
ECU brings a new kind of vibe to the AAC after leaving Conference USA only to find themselves knee deep in a conference that highly resembles the one they just left. One thing is for certain, ECU will have the most entertaining offense in the conference. That is their ace in the hole, as it may take some teams in the league time to adjust to getting used to their tempo. It also makes this team a dark horse in this conference. Ruffin McNeill is a master of getting more out of this team than he really should get, and that makes him my favorite coach in this league. The schedule is tough, but not hopeless by any means, with early challenges coming up against Virginia Tech, South Carolina, and North Carolina. They get Cincinnati on the road, but UCF comes to ECU in the season finale. The offense will be great, but the defense must adjust quickly, and special teams must improve for ECU to race to the top of a very winnable conference.
Houston Cougars
Projected 2014 Record: 9-3
Head Coach: Tony Levine (14-12, 3rd season)
Offense
Six starters return on offense for the Cougars, including QB Johnny O'Korn, who was a semi-finalist for our QB of the Year award. He passed for 3117 yards as a freshman in 2013, and he is the undisputed leader of this football team heading into the fall. Development will be key as we see how much further he can go.
Deontay Greenberry returns as one of the more dynamic receivers in the college game, and gives O'Korn a reliable target. Daniel Spencer returns for his senior season as the other returning starter at WR. The other two spots are open, and it looks like Demarcus Ayers and Greg Ward, both sophomores, will be stepping into the starting spots as fall camp begins.
Kenneth Farrow will line up as the starter at RB, but it will be more of a committee approach with Ryan Jackson sharing the carries. Combined, both backs put together a fine season, but one you would expect of a single primary back that can carry a team.
The line will be a weak point heading into 2014, as only two starters return in C Bryce Redman and RG Rowdy Harper. A trio of juniors enter the fall trying to fill the openings in LT Alex Cooper, LG Emeka Okafor, and RT Damien Parris.
Defense
Defense...yes, defense...will be a strength of this Houston Cougars 2014 edition. Ten players return with starting experience from last season, with seven returning to their roles from a season ago.
Joey Mbu returns at DT, with Trevor Harris joining him on the line at DE. Cameron Malveaux will step up full time at DE, and BJ Singleton will step up at DT. Both are sophomores.
The LB corps returns intact, as Steven Taylor, Derrick Matthews, and Efrem Oliphant all return to reprise their roles in the middle of the unit. Oliphant collected 134 tackles, and Matthews picked up 116.
Both Corners will be new full time starters, as junior William Jackson will join senior Turan Walker as the starters heading into camp. Adrian McDonald will be back at SS, while Trevon Stewart returns at FS.
Special Teams
There will be new starters at both PK and P this season, and both new starters are likely to be juniors in Kyle Bullard (PK) and Dylan Selbert (P).
Opening Game
8/29 UTSA
Final Overview
The Cougars, like ECU, are a major dark horse in the AAC this season. They will likely improve on their 8 wins overall, and should improve over their 5-3 conference marl last season. Houston will rely on a ball hawk defense to create opportunities for their high powered offense, which could alone be a key reason for the Cougars to take this thing.
The development of the line, and the further development of their young QB will be keys on offense, and the development of new starters on special teams will be big question marks as to how good this team can really be. If you are looking for a team to bet on early, this could be your target.
The following teams are unlikely to finish with winning records
SMU Mustangs
Projected 2014 Record: 5-7
Head Coach: June Jones (36-41, 7th season)
The Good
On offense, the Mustangs return three starters on the line, and two of their four starters at WR in Der'rick Thompson and Darius Joseph.
On defense, they return the defensive line returns intact, and two of four starters are back at LB in Stephon Sanders and Jonathon Yenga.
The Bad
Neal Burcham started two games last fall, and largely struggled running the offense. The playbook will have to be limited for him to hold the starting job, a prospect of which there is no guarantee. Kevin Pope is the starter heading into camp, but was playing LB last fall. The receivers are largely unproven, and that could add to the troubles expected on offense.
On defense, three of four starters in the secondary will be new, with only Hayden Greenbauer returning at S.
Both starters at PK and P are brand new.
The schedule lends for an absolutely awful start, and the only beatable team for SMU could be a game at North Texas, and even that is not a lock.
If SMU ends with five wins yet again, June Jones could be heading out the door, as he barely survived last season. The natives in Dallas are getting restless.
UConn Huskies
Projected 2014 Record: 5-7
Head Coach: Bob Diaco (1st Season)
The Good
The receiving corps returns intact, and it is the strength of the offense overall. Geremy Davis and Deshonn Foxx will be starting at WR once more, while Sean McQuillan is back at TE. Lyle McCombs is also back at RB, and should produce more, but everyone is high on freshman Arkeel Newsome as well.
Ten starters return on a defense that has always been the anchor of the team as a unit. Only junior Graham Stewart comes on as a new starter at LB, and he plenty of experience around him. Stewart is a Florida transfer.
Diaco has enough talent on hand to improve in the win column by two in his first season, but he is largely unproven.
The Bad
Despite Casey Cochrane sitting on top of the QB depth chart, there is still no clear cut number one guy to lead the offense onto the field. There could sill be a three way battle raging heading into the opener.
The offensive line won't be much of a help early, unless four new starters can gel right away. Only C Alex Maeas returns as a starter.
The defense is solid, but needs more production overall. This unit gave up 30 or more points seven times in 2014, but really started coming together over the final three games, as the Huskies gave up only 48 points in those games. That's a starting point.
Both kickers will be brand new this fall.
Memphis Tigers
Projected 2014 Record: 5-7
Head Coach: Justin Fuente (7-17, 3rd season)
The Good
Paxton Lynch largely struggled in 2013, but Fuente believes in him, and many feel that he will progress this season. He had better, because Fuente's future likely rests with him.
Brandon Hayes returns at RB after being granted an extra season of eligibility, and his abilities largely could be responsible for some heat coming off of the QB position.
Sam Craft and Tevin Jones both return at WR, and Alan Cross is back at TE, leaving Memphis with one lone new returning receiver in Kelwone Moore. The experience at WR and TE will also aid in Lynch's transition and development.
On defense, six starters return in the front seven. Martin Ifedi and Terry Redden will be the focus of the front at DE and DT respectively. Senior Tank Janks is the lone new starter in the front seven at LB.
Charles Harris is the anchor at LB, and Ryan Coleman picks up the garbage nicely.
CB should be a strength in the secondary with both Andrew Gaines and Bobby McCain returning to start.
Sophomore Jake Elliott was a real find, hitting 16 of 18 FGs last fall.
The Bad
Lynch could go belly up, and regress rather than progress, and that would kill the Tigers out of the gate.
While tackle is a strength on the line with Taylor Fallin and Al Bond returning, the entire middle of the line needs rebuilding.
While CB is a strength on defense, Safety is a weakness, as both starters are new in Fritz Etienne and Reggis Ball.
Punter is a question mark heading into camp, as the Tigers enter camp with a freshman likely to handle the job in Spencer Smith.
Temple Owls
Projected 2014 Record: 4-8
Head Coach: Matt Rhule (2-10, 2nd season)
The Good
You have to start by realizing that the Owls have potential to double their win total in 2014 from two to four. Matt Rhule is slowly building a decent program, but it's always been pissing against the wind in Philadelphia with a largely apathetic fan base that gets dwarfed by the pro sports scene.
PJ Walker returns at QB, and he had a real breakout season last fall, and with more support, he could turn a total corner this fall. The good news is he is just a sophomore, and has so much more development and likely improvement ahead of him.
Kenneth Harper and Zaire Williams both return at RB, but it sure would be nice if one of them steps up to be the power back that the offense needs.
Tyler Matekevich is the best LB that nobody has seen play, and is a lock for the NFL shortly, maybe even in 2015. He is joined by Stephaun Marshall and Nate D. Smith to give the Owls a full set of returning starters in the middle of the defense.
The Bad
Despite Walker coming off of a strong freshman campaign at QB, he will be largely tossing the ball to inexperienced receivers, as only Jalan Fitzpatrick returns as a starter. There will be a new second receiver, as well as a new starting TE.
Only one starter returns on the offensive line in Center Kyle Friend, a junior. There could be a freshman and a sophomore getting their first starts in the opener at Vanderbilt.
The D line also only boasts one returning starter in DT Matt Ioannidis. There could be three starters that are all sophomores.
The secondary also lacks starting experience, as only CB Tavon Young is back as a starter.
The kickers will be all new as well.
USF Bulls
Projected 2014 Record: 2-10
Head Coach: Willie Taggert (2-10, 2nd season)
The Good
Building traditionally starts with line, and that's the strength of this football team right now as four starters return from an offensive unit that was largely inept last fall, especially late, when the Bulls failed to score more than 21 points ten times.
Mike White is back as a sophomore at QB, and he should show signs of improvement. Steven Bench will push from his number two spot in the fall, giving the Bulls a pair of credible options at the trigger.
Andre Davis is back at WR, and Sean Price is back at TE to give the bulls experienced targets to help the QBs improve.
Defensively, the Bulls do return two of three starters in Reshard Cliett and Nigel Harris.
Senior PK Marvin Kloss is back, and as good as he was at times, he could get better this fall. Mattias Ciabatti is back at Punter, but it would be nice to see him improve on his average of 40.2 yards per punt.
The Bad
The run game was just awful last fall, and there will be a new starter at both RB and FB. That's a tough start.
The defense was largely hit and miss last fall, and there are holes everywhere. Only DE Elkino Watson returns on the line at DE.
Nate Goodwin is the only returning starter in the secondary at FS.
There are way more questions than answers on the defensive side of the football.
Willie Taggert turned Western Kentucky from a doormat to a competitor, but he has an overall losing record for his career, and has never coached at a high level until now. This may be beyond his ability to rebuild this train wreck.
Tulane Green Wave
Projected 2014 Record: 1-11
Head Coach: Curtis Johnson (9-16, 3rd season)
The Good
There isn't much to tout here. The offensive line returns three starters, so there's that on offense.
The secondary has three returning starters in Lorenzo Ross at CB, and Darien Monroe and Sam Scofield at Safety.
Nico Marley is a nice piece at OLB, but is very much undersized.
The Bad
The Wave hands the QB job to a redshirt freshman, which is normally a very bad thing. Tanner Lee gets the nod.
The running game is also being fully rebuilt, as Orleans Darkwa has departed.
With Ryan Grant gone at WR, it's time for someone to step up at WR, but there isn't anyone with Grant's talent level hanging out here.
Only two starters return in the front seven in DE Royce LaFrance and Marley.
The schedule is difficult, and I pick Tulane as an upset victim against SE Louisiana.
This is a horrible way to follow up the 2013 New Orleans Bowl bid.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Projected 2014 Record: 1-11
Head Coach: Bill Blankenship (22-17, 4th season)
The Good
TE Tyler Wilson is one of the few bright spots on this offense heading into 2014.
The line has three starters back in LT Garrett Stafford, C Dylan Foxworth, and RT Davis Walton.
Defensive line is a spot to build on for the defense, as three starters return in DE Derrick Alexander, and DTs Jesse Burbaker and Derrick Luetjen.
The secondary is solid with three returnees there as well in CBs Dwight Dobbins and Will Barrow, and S Michael Mudoh.
Both kickers return in PK Carlos Salazar and P Dalton Parks.
The Bad
The skill positions on offense are all on rebuild right now. There will be three sophomores starting in QB Dane Evans, RB James Flanders, and WR Keevan Lucas.
The LB corps is also on full rebuild mode with no starters returning, and two freshman figuring into the starting plans in CJ Gooden and Craig Sults.
Bill Blankenship had only ever been a high school head coach before landing the job as head man at Tulsa. It shows. Every season, Tulsa has slid further under Blankenship, and the heat is severely on in 2014.
Saturday, June 7, 2014
Grading the 2014 New Hires
There were 20 coaching changes after or during the 2013 season, far fewer than maybe there should have been. As part of our build up to the 2014 season, we take a look at the new coaches for each FBS school, and grade them out as we see them. Prepare yourselves, because I'm sure I will offend someone's better sensibilities with the hires I don't like.
Arkansas State
New Coach: Blake Anderson
Anderson will be the 5th coach at ASU in five seasons. That is a rotating door unlike anything I have seen in my rather extensive college football experience. Anderson is a former coordinator from North Carolina, and is looking for his own ship to run and build. Unlike his predecessors, he may just stay a while, which is exactly what ASU needs for some much needed continuity. Anderson is a bit of unknown, but was still a nice hire for a team that needs a long term coach for an identity.
Grade: B+
Army
New Coach: Jeff Monken
Monken is an interesting choice after parting ways with Rich Ellerson. What Monken brings is system continuity, as Army seems stuck 30 years in the past by leaning on the power option as they do. Fortunately for the West Point administration, there are a few people kicking around who still understand the offense, and Monken is one of them, having coached the triple option at Georgia Southern. While Monken never let the Eagles slip too far, GSU also was not exactly a dominating force in the SoCon. He did have that win over Florida...
Grade: B
Boise State
New Coach: Bryan Harsin
When you lose an icon like Chris Petersen, you have to go for continuity, and choose someone who understands what works in Boise. They got that guy in Harsin, who they yanked away from Arkansas State after just one season. Harsin understands the logistics of moving the Boise program forward from his time working under Petersen there, so expect few, if any changes. Harsin also proved he could win as a head guy at ASU, so winning is also something that likely won't change.
Grade: A-
Bowling Green
New Coach: Dino Babers
Babers was a star assistant at Baylor, and turned Eastern Illinois from doormat to contender in the Ohio Valley Conference. Babers is a rising star, and will turn the Falcons into an instant contender in the MAC, especially with some transition happening at Northern Illinois. Babers will amp up the offense, and turn the energy way up. Babers may move on in a couple of seasons, but his stay will be extremely exciting.
Grade: A
Connecticut
New Coach: Bob Diaco
I felt that the Huskies needed to go for the stars when it came to hiring a coach. There was a huge list I had published of guys who I felt would have fit perfectly. Bob Diaco wasn't on that list. I'm not going to trash Diaco as a coach, as he did coordinate the defense on the 2012 Notre Dame squad that got blown out in the title game, but Diaco to me is far from the best fit here. He may prove me wrong, but one has to wonder why Pat Narduzzi backed away from this job like it had rabies.
Grade: C
Eastern Michigan
New Coach: Chris Creighton
In my pre-season Hot Seat article, I called New Mexico State one of the worst jobs in the country. I mean it, but welcome to the absolute worst job in the country, Chris Creighton! Creighton has had some success, but all on a very low level, and getting a head coach from Drake was the best that EMU could hope for. If Ron English maxed out at six wins (two against FCS schools) in a season, I'm not sure how much better Creighton could do. And hey, when the inept administration fires you, they can always rely on the old "he called his players bad names" card, rather than the old stand by of "dude, you just sucked ass".
Grade: D-
Florida Atlantic
New Coach: Charlie Partridge
When you need to completely save public face from firing a coach who you claim was indulging in drugs on the job, and the entire program is in a state of disarray, you fire away for the best possible option. That guy wasn't a line coach from a sub .500 team that was recovering from a mess of their own, but that's what yet another inept athletic department did in hiring Partridge. Again, I hate to pile on Partridge here, but good God, the people who actually wanted this stinking mess of a job were actually numerous. And many of them had better credentials, and had better long term prospects. This could be a mess, but then again, it already is.
Grade: F
Georgia Southern
New Coach: Willie Fritz
Jeff Monken took off for the Army job, rather than hang in to lead GSU through their FBS transition. When the Eagles had to find a new leader, they got a solid pick in Fritz, who built Sam Houston State into a national FCS power. Fritz is a solid guy, and a great coach who hasn't seen a losing record since 2006, and is a perfect fit for someone leading a program during a transitionary period. This is a home run hire all they way. Maybe Eastern Michigan and Florida Atlantic should take a look at what GSU did and take notes.
Grade: A+
Louisville
New Coach: Bobby Petrino
Petrino is a cat with nine lives, let me tell you. When Charlie Strong bolted for Texas, a thankless position from hell, rather than lead Louisville into a potential for a dominant run in ACC play, what was old became new again. Petrino returns home to the school he spurned for a failed NFL run after his own issues at Arkansas had him coaching Western Kentucky as a reclamation product. He spent all of a...wait for it...single year of penance for his misdeeds, and Louisville rang him up. Petrino really is a solid coach, just keep him away from motorcycles and co-eds.
Grade: B
U Mass
New Coach: Mark Whipple
The entire program is in a state of flux, as they are getting kicked out of the MAC after this season. With a clear path needed, they returned to their glory days and hired Mark Whipple, a long time NFL and college assistant who has known a great deal of success, especially during his earlier turn at U Mass. Charlie Molnar was a disaster for the Minutemen, so going old school and hiring Whipple was definitely a showing that the administration has it somewhat together and wants to win.
Grade: A+
Miami (Ohio)
New Coach: Chuck Martin
Martin finally lands on his feet as a head coach after about three years of being mentioned for numerous jobs around the country. Martin was the name only OC at Notre Dame, but Brian Kelly ran the offense, which is weird being that Martin is a defensive guy. Martin has done absolutely nothing that proves to me that he will be a quality head coach, and he is diving head first into one of the bigger messes in the nation. Again, there were better candidates, and I think that Miami got fooled by a label.
Grade: D
Penn State
New Coach: James Franklin
Franklin was an amazing fit at Vanderbilt. Finding any success in Nashville is something to take great pride in. This is a solid hire for the Nittany Lions, but there is a problem here that is systemic of the job itself. Bill O'Brien struggled against the Paternoites that still litter the landscape at Penn State. Not that his arm needed twisting to head back to the NFL to run the Texans, but that fact definitely played a big part in his decision to leave after doing an amazing job leading the school to stability after the Sandusky scandal. If some of the morons that seem to still be living off of the essence of Paterno can leave Franklin alone to do his job, he should be great. I'm just not sure they can.
Grade: A
Texas
New Coach: Charlie Strong
Texas is both one of the absolute best jobs in the country, and simultaneously one of the worst. There are too many chiefs and not enough Indians in the Austin camp, and too many outside influences try to force their will on the way the program flows. You couldn't even get more than two people to agree on how to deal with firing Mack Brown, or even find anyone to agree that he should have been fired. This leads one to believe that their isn't a clear leadership direction at Texas, and this is the mess that Charlie Strong inherits. Strong is an amazing coach, no doubt. What remains to be seen is how long his will holds out when he starts getting yanked around by all of the ridiculous personalities that tend to hover around this currently semi-dormant program. Good coach, maybe not the right job, and remember, several A list coaches told Texas thanks, but no thanks, mostly for the reasons listed.
Grade: A-
UAB
New Coach: Bill Clark
As horrible as the New Mexico State and Eastern Michigan jobs are concerned, UAB is right up there with them. Garrick McGee bolted not for another head coaching job, but to run the offense under Bobby Petrino at Louisville. Yikes! Clark is a storied high school coach who has only ever been the head guy for one season (Jacksonville State). As horrid as McGee was here, Clark may not stand to be much better. Gus Malzahn aside, the only other recent high school coach coaching at an FBS program isn't exactly killing it (Bill Blankenship, Tulsa). Considering that the administration is acting almost as if they could give a damn less about football, the facilities are just absolutely awful, and the stadium situation has UAB playing in a cavernous place with all of the atmosphere of a rock quarry. Fan support is abysmal, and without full bore administrative support, Clark has been set up to fail. Not that he likely wouldn't do that all on his own.
Grade: F
USC
New Coach: Steve Sarkisian
Because sticking with the Carroll coaching tree worked so well with the Lane Kiffin hire, the Trojans head back to the well with the hire of Sarkisian away from Washington. Yeah, Sarkisian had that amazing win cap at eight in any given year at Washington, a program which technically should have been a major player, so my expectations for his success at USC is...more of the same. Apparently USC is enjoying an era of mediocrity, because this hire had all of the innovativeness of vanilla ice cream. Maybe if Sarkisian fails to get the Trojans back to the top of the food chain, Pat Haden should go out the door with him.
Grade: C
Vanderbilt
New Coach: Derek Mason
Mason coached a defense at Stanford that had true NFL grit. He may have some startup issues, as recruiting thinned out when James Franklin left for Penn State, but Mason is no joke. The only thing missing is head coaching experience here. Mason may make Vanderbilt fans very happy, just remain patient while he rebuilds the recruiting base. Mason may just end up being one of the best coaches in the SEC when all is said and done. Remember, Vanderbilt and Stanford are both academic first kinds of schools, so Mason also understands this philosophy, and wins around it.
Grade: A+
Wake Forest
New Coach: Dave Clawson
Clawson comes over to the Deacons after a surprise run saw him lead Bowling Green to the MAC title in 2013. Clawson, before that momentous event, was highly average at BGSU. This may have been an average hire at best, and Wake needed a huge home run. One thing to lean on, however, is that Clawson successfully coached in this region, and won solidly at Richmond before. I'm really on the fence with this hire. It could work, but it may not.
Grade: C
Washington
New Coach: Chris Petersen
How can you fail when you hire a guy who has been recruited for virtually every single job that has opened within the last five years? Petersen was a mid major master at Boise State, and we all know this. All we don't know is how will this transition to a power conference school that has largely underperformed for 20 years go? We will soon find out, and we will all enjoy the ride that this will be.
Grade: A++
Western Kentucky
New Coach: Jeff Brohm
Petrino was a short timer from the day he started, but Jeff Brohm may stick around and give WKU some stability. Brohm has been mentioned as a prospect for the coaching game for a while now, and I am happy for him to get a job where the program is already on the rise. Brohm understands the state of Kentucky, and could tap a deep well of local prospects in the south. I have high hopes here.
Grade: A
Wyoming
New Coach: Craig Bohl
Bohl has been one of the more dominant coaches on any level at North Dakota State, where he built a title winning machine on the FCS level. The Dave Christensen hire ended up being a disaster for the Cowboys, but Bohl will bring a winning mentality to a school where the administration has know nothing but upheaval for the last year or so. As a former Nebraska assistant, and coach at NDSU, Bohl clearly understands the region, and he has to know what I do, and that is that Wyoming can clearly become a winning program. This hire, for me, is a massive hit.
Grade: A++
Arkansas State
New Coach: Blake Anderson
Anderson will be the 5th coach at ASU in five seasons. That is a rotating door unlike anything I have seen in my rather extensive college football experience. Anderson is a former coordinator from North Carolina, and is looking for his own ship to run and build. Unlike his predecessors, he may just stay a while, which is exactly what ASU needs for some much needed continuity. Anderson is a bit of unknown, but was still a nice hire for a team that needs a long term coach for an identity.
Grade: B+
Army
New Coach: Jeff Monken
Monken is an interesting choice after parting ways with Rich Ellerson. What Monken brings is system continuity, as Army seems stuck 30 years in the past by leaning on the power option as they do. Fortunately for the West Point administration, there are a few people kicking around who still understand the offense, and Monken is one of them, having coached the triple option at Georgia Southern. While Monken never let the Eagles slip too far, GSU also was not exactly a dominating force in the SoCon. He did have that win over Florida...
Grade: B
Boise State
New Coach: Bryan Harsin
When you lose an icon like Chris Petersen, you have to go for continuity, and choose someone who understands what works in Boise. They got that guy in Harsin, who they yanked away from Arkansas State after just one season. Harsin understands the logistics of moving the Boise program forward from his time working under Petersen there, so expect few, if any changes. Harsin also proved he could win as a head guy at ASU, so winning is also something that likely won't change.
Grade: A-
Bowling Green
New Coach: Dino Babers
Babers was a star assistant at Baylor, and turned Eastern Illinois from doormat to contender in the Ohio Valley Conference. Babers is a rising star, and will turn the Falcons into an instant contender in the MAC, especially with some transition happening at Northern Illinois. Babers will amp up the offense, and turn the energy way up. Babers may move on in a couple of seasons, but his stay will be extremely exciting.
Grade: A
Connecticut
New Coach: Bob Diaco
I felt that the Huskies needed to go for the stars when it came to hiring a coach. There was a huge list I had published of guys who I felt would have fit perfectly. Bob Diaco wasn't on that list. I'm not going to trash Diaco as a coach, as he did coordinate the defense on the 2012 Notre Dame squad that got blown out in the title game, but Diaco to me is far from the best fit here. He may prove me wrong, but one has to wonder why Pat Narduzzi backed away from this job like it had rabies.
Grade: C
Eastern Michigan
New Coach: Chris Creighton
In my pre-season Hot Seat article, I called New Mexico State one of the worst jobs in the country. I mean it, but welcome to the absolute worst job in the country, Chris Creighton! Creighton has had some success, but all on a very low level, and getting a head coach from Drake was the best that EMU could hope for. If Ron English maxed out at six wins (two against FCS schools) in a season, I'm not sure how much better Creighton could do. And hey, when the inept administration fires you, they can always rely on the old "he called his players bad names" card, rather than the old stand by of "dude, you just sucked ass".
Grade: D-
Florida Atlantic
New Coach: Charlie Partridge
When you need to completely save public face from firing a coach who you claim was indulging in drugs on the job, and the entire program is in a state of disarray, you fire away for the best possible option. That guy wasn't a line coach from a sub .500 team that was recovering from a mess of their own, but that's what yet another inept athletic department did in hiring Partridge. Again, I hate to pile on Partridge here, but good God, the people who actually wanted this stinking mess of a job were actually numerous. And many of them had better credentials, and had better long term prospects. This could be a mess, but then again, it already is.
Grade: F
Georgia Southern
New Coach: Willie Fritz
Jeff Monken took off for the Army job, rather than hang in to lead GSU through their FBS transition. When the Eagles had to find a new leader, they got a solid pick in Fritz, who built Sam Houston State into a national FCS power. Fritz is a solid guy, and a great coach who hasn't seen a losing record since 2006, and is a perfect fit for someone leading a program during a transitionary period. This is a home run hire all they way. Maybe Eastern Michigan and Florida Atlantic should take a look at what GSU did and take notes.
Grade: A+
Louisville
New Coach: Bobby Petrino
Petrino is a cat with nine lives, let me tell you. When Charlie Strong bolted for Texas, a thankless position from hell, rather than lead Louisville into a potential for a dominant run in ACC play, what was old became new again. Petrino returns home to the school he spurned for a failed NFL run after his own issues at Arkansas had him coaching Western Kentucky as a reclamation product. He spent all of a...wait for it...single year of penance for his misdeeds, and Louisville rang him up. Petrino really is a solid coach, just keep him away from motorcycles and co-eds.
Grade: B
U Mass
New Coach: Mark Whipple
The entire program is in a state of flux, as they are getting kicked out of the MAC after this season. With a clear path needed, they returned to their glory days and hired Mark Whipple, a long time NFL and college assistant who has known a great deal of success, especially during his earlier turn at U Mass. Charlie Molnar was a disaster for the Minutemen, so going old school and hiring Whipple was definitely a showing that the administration has it somewhat together and wants to win.
Grade: A+
Miami (Ohio)
New Coach: Chuck Martin
Martin finally lands on his feet as a head coach after about three years of being mentioned for numerous jobs around the country. Martin was the name only OC at Notre Dame, but Brian Kelly ran the offense, which is weird being that Martin is a defensive guy. Martin has done absolutely nothing that proves to me that he will be a quality head coach, and he is diving head first into one of the bigger messes in the nation. Again, there were better candidates, and I think that Miami got fooled by a label.
Grade: D
Penn State
New Coach: James Franklin
Franklin was an amazing fit at Vanderbilt. Finding any success in Nashville is something to take great pride in. This is a solid hire for the Nittany Lions, but there is a problem here that is systemic of the job itself. Bill O'Brien struggled against the Paternoites that still litter the landscape at Penn State. Not that his arm needed twisting to head back to the NFL to run the Texans, but that fact definitely played a big part in his decision to leave after doing an amazing job leading the school to stability after the Sandusky scandal. If some of the morons that seem to still be living off of the essence of Paterno can leave Franklin alone to do his job, he should be great. I'm just not sure they can.
Grade: A
Texas
New Coach: Charlie Strong
Texas is both one of the absolute best jobs in the country, and simultaneously one of the worst. There are too many chiefs and not enough Indians in the Austin camp, and too many outside influences try to force their will on the way the program flows. You couldn't even get more than two people to agree on how to deal with firing Mack Brown, or even find anyone to agree that he should have been fired. This leads one to believe that their isn't a clear leadership direction at Texas, and this is the mess that Charlie Strong inherits. Strong is an amazing coach, no doubt. What remains to be seen is how long his will holds out when he starts getting yanked around by all of the ridiculous personalities that tend to hover around this currently semi-dormant program. Good coach, maybe not the right job, and remember, several A list coaches told Texas thanks, but no thanks, mostly for the reasons listed.
Grade: A-
UAB
New Coach: Bill Clark
As horrible as the New Mexico State and Eastern Michigan jobs are concerned, UAB is right up there with them. Garrick McGee bolted not for another head coaching job, but to run the offense under Bobby Petrino at Louisville. Yikes! Clark is a storied high school coach who has only ever been the head guy for one season (Jacksonville State). As horrid as McGee was here, Clark may not stand to be much better. Gus Malzahn aside, the only other recent high school coach coaching at an FBS program isn't exactly killing it (Bill Blankenship, Tulsa). Considering that the administration is acting almost as if they could give a damn less about football, the facilities are just absolutely awful, and the stadium situation has UAB playing in a cavernous place with all of the atmosphere of a rock quarry. Fan support is abysmal, and without full bore administrative support, Clark has been set up to fail. Not that he likely wouldn't do that all on his own.
Grade: F
USC
New Coach: Steve Sarkisian
Because sticking with the Carroll coaching tree worked so well with the Lane Kiffin hire, the Trojans head back to the well with the hire of Sarkisian away from Washington. Yeah, Sarkisian had that amazing win cap at eight in any given year at Washington, a program which technically should have been a major player, so my expectations for his success at USC is...more of the same. Apparently USC is enjoying an era of mediocrity, because this hire had all of the innovativeness of vanilla ice cream. Maybe if Sarkisian fails to get the Trojans back to the top of the food chain, Pat Haden should go out the door with him.
Grade: C
Vanderbilt
New Coach: Derek Mason
Mason coached a defense at Stanford that had true NFL grit. He may have some startup issues, as recruiting thinned out when James Franklin left for Penn State, but Mason is no joke. The only thing missing is head coaching experience here. Mason may make Vanderbilt fans very happy, just remain patient while he rebuilds the recruiting base. Mason may just end up being one of the best coaches in the SEC when all is said and done. Remember, Vanderbilt and Stanford are both academic first kinds of schools, so Mason also understands this philosophy, and wins around it.
Grade: A+
Wake Forest
New Coach: Dave Clawson
Clawson comes over to the Deacons after a surprise run saw him lead Bowling Green to the MAC title in 2013. Clawson, before that momentous event, was highly average at BGSU. This may have been an average hire at best, and Wake needed a huge home run. One thing to lean on, however, is that Clawson successfully coached in this region, and won solidly at Richmond before. I'm really on the fence with this hire. It could work, but it may not.
Grade: C
Washington
New Coach: Chris Petersen
How can you fail when you hire a guy who has been recruited for virtually every single job that has opened within the last five years? Petersen was a mid major master at Boise State, and we all know this. All we don't know is how will this transition to a power conference school that has largely underperformed for 20 years go? We will soon find out, and we will all enjoy the ride that this will be.
Grade: A++
Western Kentucky
New Coach: Jeff Brohm
Petrino was a short timer from the day he started, but Jeff Brohm may stick around and give WKU some stability. Brohm has been mentioned as a prospect for the coaching game for a while now, and I am happy for him to get a job where the program is already on the rise. Brohm understands the state of Kentucky, and could tap a deep well of local prospects in the south. I have high hopes here.
Grade: A
Wyoming
New Coach: Craig Bohl
Bohl has been one of the more dominant coaches on any level at North Dakota State, where he built a title winning machine on the FCS level. The Dave Christensen hire ended up being a disaster for the Cowboys, but Bohl will bring a winning mentality to a school where the administration has know nothing but upheaval for the last year or so. As a former Nebraska assistant, and coach at NDSU, Bohl clearly understands the region, and he has to know what I do, and that is that Wyoming can clearly become a winning program. This hire, for me, is a massive hit.
Grade: A++
Wednesday, June 4, 2014
Coaches on the Hot Seat: 2014 Preview
As we head into the summer season, there's no time like the present to take a look at which coaches in college football will be feeling the heat in 2014. Several coaches survived the firing squad last fall, but many of those who skated by last fall won't be so lucky this season. Let's see who makes the list this time around:
Troy Calhoun, Air Force
Calhoun isn't a bad coach. He's done some nice things at the academy, but the real truth is that the program is trending downward in a hurry. Year eight of the Calhoun era should be a make or break season. Expectations are that the Falcons will finish at about .500 in 2014, but if they Finish with 9 losses or more, Calhoun's overall record falls below .500. Something else to note... Air Force hasn't won a league title in 29 years.
Bret Bielema, Arkansas
Nobody is saying that Bielema is going to get canned after just his second season in Fayettville, but believe me, the heat is on for him in year two after a season that was an abject disaster. Bielema walked into a chainsaw taking this job on the heels of the disastrous end to the Bobby Petrino era and the mistake that was the one year John L. Smith disaster. That being said, he will need another year to get the Hogs close to returning to their winning ways of old. However, I have seem few guarantees that those days are anywhere close. Unlike many of the coaches on this list, at least Bielema has a major weapon in the form of Alex Collins on offense.
Dan Enos, Central Michigan
Enos has gone just 19-20 in four seasons at CMU. He has not shown a propensity of moving up by beating anyone of note in or out of conference play. This is seriously his make or break season, as the Chippewas play seven games at home, have nine returning starters on offense, and six on defense. If that experience cannot get CMU to seven wins or more this season, with the skill he has on the roster, then Enos will be a dead pooler by season's end. That is a guarantee.
Will Muschamp, Florida
Most folks in Gator nation wanted Muschamp to end up as Gator bait over the winter. It did not happen. There are about seven million reasons why that didn't happen, but the number may not mean a damned thing in 2014 of Florida doesn't show serious improvement on both sides of the football. That loss to Georgia Southern last fall was a massive embarrassment, and Muschamp doesn't have the chips in his corner that come with a shining personality that can talk your way out of a bad year or two. Most people (fans and media alike) are not fans of his, and if Muschamp doesn't lead the Gators to at least a serious shot at the SEC East Divisional title this season, he may be shown the door.
Ron Turner, Florida International
There were several people who felt that Turner was a mistake hire and wanted him gone after just one season. That would have been a bit hasty, but who can blame them when his overall record in college is just 42-70. I wasn't a fan of the Turner hire at FIU, and obviously, others felt the same way. Turner's 1-11 season in year one bought him zero goodwill, so another repeat of that, especially with nine returning starters on offense coming back, may get him an early axe.
Mark Richt, Georgia
Richt is perennially on the hot seat at Georgia, but really and truly, his teams have underachieved more than overachieved during his tenure. The Bulldogs lost five games last season, and that was with Aaron Murray at QB until his season ending injury late in that season. Murray isn't walking through that door anymore, and the replacements aren't up to his ability yet. Todd Gurley will have the load squarely on his shoulders, and he'll be running behind a rebuilt line. There could be some grumbling in Athens this fall.
Trent Miles, Georgia State
Miles has never known a great deal of success as a head coach on the FCS level, and the Panthers went 0-12 in his first season in 2013. Miles doesn't have a stocked cupboard in 2014, and has only five returning starters in 2014 on offense. With an overall coaching record of 20-48, it would stand to reason to believe that Miles won't be lasting long at this post.
Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech
After consecutive seven win seasons, Tech fans are expecting more in 2014. The staff remained intact (which is a surprise), and recruiting has stepped up, but how much can we expect of the Jackets this fall? They have to win close games, and find a way to beat Georgia. Tech had the Bulldogs on the ropes before blowing the game and losing in double OT. Losses like that are bad for business, and the fan base is starting to have some demands. Johnson has to turn a corner in year seven in Atlanta.
Norm Chow, Hawaii
Chow is 4-20 in his first two seasons at UH, and his tenure has been largely a disaster of epic proportions. Sure, they lost several close games last fall, but they finished 1-11, and went winless in conference play last fall, and Rainbow fans aren't used to this kind of thing. The schedule won't provide any early favors this season, and another repeat will show Chow an exit to retirement earlier than expected.
Tim Beckman, Illinois
Beckman was on his way out late last season, but managed to pull it together just enough to save his position with the Illini at the 11th hour. Beckman will be under immense pressure to turn it around this fall, and it's to be expected that Illinois must win at least six games in 2014 to keep Beckman in his job.
Paul Rhoades, Iowa State
Coming off of a 3-9 season, Rhoades is now just 27-36 while entering his 6th season at the helm of the Cyclones. ISU breaks in a new QB, and welcomes OC Mark Mangino, but will it be enough to get the Cyclones in the upper division of the Big 12? If you look at the schedule, I'm thinking not, as they could be 0-6 through mid October. That may be enough to get Rhoades his walking papers.
Charlie Weis, Kansas
Weis had access to more talent at Notre Dame, and barely got by, which got him ousted. Kansas has never really been what I would call a football hotbed, and so even though he has landed several very decent transfers, The high water mark was three wins. Weis is just 4-20 in two seasons, and will need to push at least .500 this season. I don't see where those six wins will come from.
Randy Edsell, Maryland
Edsell turned a bit of a corner by winning seven games in 2013, but the stakes are a little bit higher, as the Terps move into the Big 10 to try and "increase their profile". If you can't win regularly in the ACC, then how will they win bigger in the Big 10? I don't see it. Edsell is 13-24 in three seasons, so 2014 may be make or break for him.
Justin Fuentes, Memphis
Memphis actually took a step back in year two under Fuentes in 2013, falling to three wins from four in year one. He is 7-17 in two seasons, and it's that year three thing where it's time to show major progression. I believe that Fuentes may be in over his head at a program who hasn't won a conference title since 1971 (Missouri Valley).
Dan Mullen, Mississippi State
Mullen is likely not in real trouble, having compiled a 36-28 record in five seasons. The real issue is that at some point, I have to wonder when winning six or seven wins won't be enough anymore. Missouri and Texas A&M have far surpassed MSU in their own conference, as has South Carolina. It's kind of sad when you think about it in those terms.
Bob Davie, New Mexico
Davie is building at New Mexico, and they are moving upward. There is more depth than ever right now, and the team could move up from three wins to five or six this season. That's great, but a fall back would be terrible. If Davie can keep this train moving in the right direction, even to just five wins, than we aren't having this conversation anymore.
Doug Martin, New Mexico State
Martin has never been a great coach. He has a career record of 31-63, and let's face it...the only reason he has the job is that he was the only one who wanted it after DeWayne Walker left. This is probably one of the two worst jobs in the country. Martin went 2-10 in his first season, and changed a ton of staff after the season. If it doesn't pan out, there isn't any other place to look but at the top. Moving to the Sun Belt won't help much.
Larry Fedora, North Carolina
I have never been overly impressed by Fedora, who has never stayed anywhere long enough to get a good feel about. With several major losses as far as personnel is concerned, and a tough schedule, it could be a six win season again. That's not enough to make me dump all over UNC, but they should be better than this. I give him two years before I really turn up my heat dial.
Mike Riley, Oregon State
Riley has been ok in tour two in Corvallis, but talent is diving, and after Sean Mannion loses Brandin Cooks, does he have other talent to make up for his loss? Does a lacking running game improve enough to help settle the difference? Can the Beavers make a mark in the ultra competitive Pac-12 North? Riley has his hands full, and he may not be able to push this team as hard as they need to be pushed.
Kyle Flood, Rutgers
Flood has not matched the success of Greg Schiano, and moving to the Big 10 may be a massive mistake for the overmatched Knights. Rutgers could barely scrape by in the Big East/AAC, so what makes them think that they could have a place of supremecy in a much tougher conference? Flood has a ton to prove, and not much time to prove it.
June Jones, SMU
I really felt that Jones could have been on the way out after last fall, but a strong finish held the wolves at bay. SMU absolutely needs a push in 2014, and they may have some talent at QB, despite the loss of the massively overrated Garrett Gilbert. They will have to slow down the offense to succeed, but the offense was only sped up to help Gilbert. Jones is just 36-41 at SMU, and the fan base was really grumbling last fall. Time to put up or get out.
Larry Blakeney, Troy
Blakeney has been at Troy forever, but the program has grown stale on his watch. Blakeney has an overall record of 175-104-1 record in 23 seasons, but he has obviously forgotten how to coach a team that plays defense. All everything QB Corey Robinson is also gone. How do you recover from that? I don't know, but this ship is sinking, and new blood is needed.
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Bill Blankenship, Tulsa
I've never been a fan of this hire, and if Tulsa can't win more than three games in 2014, than Blankenship will be under .500. 2013 was abysmal at Tulsa, and if there isn't a serious turnaround in 2014, Blankenship may not survive.
Bobby Hauck, UNLV
Hauck hasn't had a winning season at UNLV, and now the Rebels have lost bowl eligibility due to APR issues. Academics is what you do. You should never fail to reach postseason play over academics at a university in this country, and it's Hauck's cross to bare, as is the loss of Caleb Herring and Tim Cornett. It may be a difficult year in the desert.
Mike London, Virginia
London should be gone already. Simple as that. Virginia has been horrible, and the schedule doesn't allow for much better in 2014. I'm just shocked that he got 2014.
Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech
Beamer is slipping. He has been at Tech forever, but it's time to pass the torch. Players aren't responding, and the talent level isn't what it should be, as evidenced by the blowout loss in the Sun Bowl. The QBs weren't good in the spring, so the Hokies offense has no answers heading into fall camp.
Dana Holgorson, West Virginia
Remember when he was going to build WVU into a power in the rebuilt Big 12? Hasn't happened, and isn't going to happen this season either. WVU looks like a mess right now, and I don't see a clear path moving forward.
Troy Calhoun, Air Force
Calhoun isn't a bad coach. He's done some nice things at the academy, but the real truth is that the program is trending downward in a hurry. Year eight of the Calhoun era should be a make or break season. Expectations are that the Falcons will finish at about .500 in 2014, but if they Finish with 9 losses or more, Calhoun's overall record falls below .500. Something else to note... Air Force hasn't won a league title in 29 years.
Bret Bielema, Arkansas
Nobody is saying that Bielema is going to get canned after just his second season in Fayettville, but believe me, the heat is on for him in year two after a season that was an abject disaster. Bielema walked into a chainsaw taking this job on the heels of the disastrous end to the Bobby Petrino era and the mistake that was the one year John L. Smith disaster. That being said, he will need another year to get the Hogs close to returning to their winning ways of old. However, I have seem few guarantees that those days are anywhere close. Unlike many of the coaches on this list, at least Bielema has a major weapon in the form of Alex Collins on offense.
Dan Enos, Central Michigan
Enos has gone just 19-20 in four seasons at CMU. He has not shown a propensity of moving up by beating anyone of note in or out of conference play. This is seriously his make or break season, as the Chippewas play seven games at home, have nine returning starters on offense, and six on defense. If that experience cannot get CMU to seven wins or more this season, with the skill he has on the roster, then Enos will be a dead pooler by season's end. That is a guarantee.
Will Muschamp, Florida
Most folks in Gator nation wanted Muschamp to end up as Gator bait over the winter. It did not happen. There are about seven million reasons why that didn't happen, but the number may not mean a damned thing in 2014 of Florida doesn't show serious improvement on both sides of the football. That loss to Georgia Southern last fall was a massive embarrassment, and Muschamp doesn't have the chips in his corner that come with a shining personality that can talk your way out of a bad year or two. Most people (fans and media alike) are not fans of his, and if Muschamp doesn't lead the Gators to at least a serious shot at the SEC East Divisional title this season, he may be shown the door.
Ron Turner, Florida International
There were several people who felt that Turner was a mistake hire and wanted him gone after just one season. That would have been a bit hasty, but who can blame them when his overall record in college is just 42-70. I wasn't a fan of the Turner hire at FIU, and obviously, others felt the same way. Turner's 1-11 season in year one bought him zero goodwill, so another repeat of that, especially with nine returning starters on offense coming back, may get him an early axe.
Mark Richt, Georgia
Richt is perennially on the hot seat at Georgia, but really and truly, his teams have underachieved more than overachieved during his tenure. The Bulldogs lost five games last season, and that was with Aaron Murray at QB until his season ending injury late in that season. Murray isn't walking through that door anymore, and the replacements aren't up to his ability yet. Todd Gurley will have the load squarely on his shoulders, and he'll be running behind a rebuilt line. There could be some grumbling in Athens this fall.
Trent Miles, Georgia State
Miles has never known a great deal of success as a head coach on the FCS level, and the Panthers went 0-12 in his first season in 2013. Miles doesn't have a stocked cupboard in 2014, and has only five returning starters in 2014 on offense. With an overall coaching record of 20-48, it would stand to reason to believe that Miles won't be lasting long at this post.
Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech
After consecutive seven win seasons, Tech fans are expecting more in 2014. The staff remained intact (which is a surprise), and recruiting has stepped up, but how much can we expect of the Jackets this fall? They have to win close games, and find a way to beat Georgia. Tech had the Bulldogs on the ropes before blowing the game and losing in double OT. Losses like that are bad for business, and the fan base is starting to have some demands. Johnson has to turn a corner in year seven in Atlanta.
Norm Chow, Hawaii
Chow is 4-20 in his first two seasons at UH, and his tenure has been largely a disaster of epic proportions. Sure, they lost several close games last fall, but they finished 1-11, and went winless in conference play last fall, and Rainbow fans aren't used to this kind of thing. The schedule won't provide any early favors this season, and another repeat will show Chow an exit to retirement earlier than expected.
Tim Beckman, Illinois
Beckman was on his way out late last season, but managed to pull it together just enough to save his position with the Illini at the 11th hour. Beckman will be under immense pressure to turn it around this fall, and it's to be expected that Illinois must win at least six games in 2014 to keep Beckman in his job.
Paul Rhoades, Iowa State
Coming off of a 3-9 season, Rhoades is now just 27-36 while entering his 6th season at the helm of the Cyclones. ISU breaks in a new QB, and welcomes OC Mark Mangino, but will it be enough to get the Cyclones in the upper division of the Big 12? If you look at the schedule, I'm thinking not, as they could be 0-6 through mid October. That may be enough to get Rhoades his walking papers.
Charlie Weis, Kansas
Weis had access to more talent at Notre Dame, and barely got by, which got him ousted. Kansas has never really been what I would call a football hotbed, and so even though he has landed several very decent transfers, The high water mark was three wins. Weis is just 4-20 in two seasons, and will need to push at least .500 this season. I don't see where those six wins will come from.
Randy Edsell, Maryland
Edsell turned a bit of a corner by winning seven games in 2013, but the stakes are a little bit higher, as the Terps move into the Big 10 to try and "increase their profile". If you can't win regularly in the ACC, then how will they win bigger in the Big 10? I don't see it. Edsell is 13-24 in three seasons, so 2014 may be make or break for him.
Justin Fuentes, Memphis
Memphis actually took a step back in year two under Fuentes in 2013, falling to three wins from four in year one. He is 7-17 in two seasons, and it's that year three thing where it's time to show major progression. I believe that Fuentes may be in over his head at a program who hasn't won a conference title since 1971 (Missouri Valley).
Dan Mullen, Mississippi State
Mullen is likely not in real trouble, having compiled a 36-28 record in five seasons. The real issue is that at some point, I have to wonder when winning six or seven wins won't be enough anymore. Missouri and Texas A&M have far surpassed MSU in their own conference, as has South Carolina. It's kind of sad when you think about it in those terms.
Bob Davie, New Mexico
Davie is building at New Mexico, and they are moving upward. There is more depth than ever right now, and the team could move up from three wins to five or six this season. That's great, but a fall back would be terrible. If Davie can keep this train moving in the right direction, even to just five wins, than we aren't having this conversation anymore.
Doug Martin, New Mexico State
Martin has never been a great coach. He has a career record of 31-63, and let's face it...the only reason he has the job is that he was the only one who wanted it after DeWayne Walker left. This is probably one of the two worst jobs in the country. Martin went 2-10 in his first season, and changed a ton of staff after the season. If it doesn't pan out, there isn't any other place to look but at the top. Moving to the Sun Belt won't help much.
Larry Fedora, North Carolina
I have never been overly impressed by Fedora, who has never stayed anywhere long enough to get a good feel about. With several major losses as far as personnel is concerned, and a tough schedule, it could be a six win season again. That's not enough to make me dump all over UNC, but they should be better than this. I give him two years before I really turn up my heat dial.
Mike Riley, Oregon State
Riley has been ok in tour two in Corvallis, but talent is diving, and after Sean Mannion loses Brandin Cooks, does he have other talent to make up for his loss? Does a lacking running game improve enough to help settle the difference? Can the Beavers make a mark in the ultra competitive Pac-12 North? Riley has his hands full, and he may not be able to push this team as hard as they need to be pushed.
Kyle Flood, Rutgers
Flood has not matched the success of Greg Schiano, and moving to the Big 10 may be a massive mistake for the overmatched Knights. Rutgers could barely scrape by in the Big East/AAC, so what makes them think that they could have a place of supremecy in a much tougher conference? Flood has a ton to prove, and not much time to prove it.
June Jones, SMU
I really felt that Jones could have been on the way out after last fall, but a strong finish held the wolves at bay. SMU absolutely needs a push in 2014, and they may have some talent at QB, despite the loss of the massively overrated Garrett Gilbert. They will have to slow down the offense to succeed, but the offense was only sped up to help Gilbert. Jones is just 36-41 at SMU, and the fan base was really grumbling last fall. Time to put up or get out.
Larry Blakeney, Troy
Blakeney has been at Troy forever, but the program has grown stale on his watch. Blakeney has an overall record of 175-104-1 record in 23 seasons, but he has obviously forgotten how to coach a team that plays defense. All everything QB Corey Robinson is also gone. How do you recover from that? I don't know, but this ship is sinking, and new blood is needed.
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Bill Blankenship, Tulsa
I've never been a fan of this hire, and if Tulsa can't win more than three games in 2014, than Blankenship will be under .500. 2013 was abysmal at Tulsa, and if there isn't a serious turnaround in 2014, Blankenship may not survive.
Bobby Hauck, UNLV
Hauck hasn't had a winning season at UNLV, and now the Rebels have lost bowl eligibility due to APR issues. Academics is what you do. You should never fail to reach postseason play over academics at a university in this country, and it's Hauck's cross to bare, as is the loss of Caleb Herring and Tim Cornett. It may be a difficult year in the desert.
Mike London, Virginia
London should be gone already. Simple as that. Virginia has been horrible, and the schedule doesn't allow for much better in 2014. I'm just shocked that he got 2014.
Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech
Beamer is slipping. He has been at Tech forever, but it's time to pass the torch. Players aren't responding, and the talent level isn't what it should be, as evidenced by the blowout loss in the Sun Bowl. The QBs weren't good in the spring, so the Hokies offense has no answers heading into fall camp.
Dana Holgorson, West Virginia
Remember when he was going to build WVU into a power in the rebuilt Big 12? Hasn't happened, and isn't going to happen this season either. WVU looks like a mess right now, and I don't see a clear path moving forward.
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