Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Chicago Bears 2018 Preview

Chicago Bears 2018 Preview

Opening Statement: The Bears finally had had enough of John Fox last season, and fired him, replacing him with rookie head coach Matt Nagy, the former journeyman NFL backup QB and Kansas City OC. He is just 40 years old, and is more of an offensive mind, which made it paramount that the team retained the services of DC Vic Fangio, which they did. Nagy brought in former Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich to run the offense, so look for the Bears to look more like a college team with the offense that will be installed to help Mitch Trubisky make the leap to the next level, if he can. Trubsky will be squarely on the hot seat in year 2, as he has to show the Bears that he is the franchise QB that they gave up a large haul to acquire last year.

Quarterback Breakdown
It's all lights on Trubisky now, as the Bears did a lot to add quality talent around him during the off-season, especially in the receiver corps. If Trubisky cannot get it done in 2018, his time as starter may be done, and the Bears may start looking elsewhere for his replacement, if they can acknowledge that failure.

Depth is not great behind Trubisky. Chase Daniel has thrown just 78 passes in the NFL in 8 years, while Tyler Bray has attempted just one pass in the last four years. The Bears could use an upgrade here, but there are no other bodies in camp.

Running Back Breakdown
Jordan Howard returns as the starter at RB, but look for Tarik Cohen to get more work and reps in the new offense that Helfrich will be installing. Howard rushed for 1122 yards last fall, and scored 9 times. He should be able to adjust to the new system and have more of a breakout year than he did a year ago. Cohen should continue in his role as utility back, and should shine on passing downs.

Benny Cunningham is an all-purpose back that fits well into the Helfrich scheme on offense, and should have a role as the 3rd back. Taquan Mizzell never got going last year, but the staff thinks that he should be able to break out in camp. If he doesn't, he will be gone.

Michael Burton is the starter at FB, but is more of a special teams ace, and he probably will not see many touches on offense. Ryan Nall was brought into camp as a UDFA, but may find it tough going to break camp on the active roster.

Receiver Breakdown
The Bears went shopping to upgrade their lagging receiver corps during the off-season, and upgraded significantly. Last year's receiving leader, Kendall Wright, is gone, and replacing him will be Allen Robinson, who was allowed to walk by Jacksonville after ending up on the IR with a torn ACL last year. He should be healthy and ready to go, and will be the big body bruiser in the passing game that will open things up for other receivers. Taylor Gabriel was brought in from Atlanta, and has speed to burn, and he should open up the field to allow a better flow of the passing attack. Bennie Fowler was brought in from Denver, and his size/speed ratio makes him a solid fit for this offense.

Kevin White is back from injury, but he has never been able to break out of his shell. It is hoped that the new offense will suit his abilities, but if not, he could be on his way elsewhere. Anthony Miller was drafted out of Memphis in the 2nd round, and he should have instant impact in this offense, and could be the guy who pushes White out the door. Joshua Bellamy is back as well, but should see most of his time as a special teams gunner.

Javon Wims was drafted in the 7th round, and could fit as a rock solid possession receiver in the offense, and if he makes it out of camp, could be a fantastic story. Marlon Brown has been a constant injury issue since his rookie season in Baltimore, and could be out of town by the end of camp.

Tight End Breakdown
Trey Burton may be one of the most underrated offensive weapons that the Bears could have, and he could see a massively expanded role in this offense. He can line up as a traditional TE, but could be moved all over the field and used in a variety of roles. Adam Shaheen is developing nicely, and will be used as a blocking TE, and will have a role in the red zone as a secondary big body receiving option. Dion Sims could be the 3rd TE, and actually fits this offense better than the old system, which he was brought in to run in.

Ben Braunecker and Daniel Brown look to be camp casualties, but Brown could stick if Sims somehow is let go.

Offensive Line Breakdown
Charles Leno is back at LT, but the Bears would love to eventually upgrade the position. Leno was not all that disciplined last season, and his pass block skills are suspect. Bobby Massie has some of the same issues Leno has on the right side. He is not a great pass blocker, and again, the Bears would love to eventually upgrade this spot. Dejon Allen was signed as a UDFA out of Hawaii, and projects as a backup to Leno on the left side, while Matt McCants was signed to bring some help to the right side. Neither are rock solid options at this point. Bradley Sowell is also in camp as a swing tackle, but his job is not a lock but for the fact that depth at Tackle is not great.

Rookie James Daniels is the future on the line, for now, but will end up at LG rather than Center to start. Kyle Long will start at RG, but the needle is pointing down on him, and his injuries are mounting. Again, the Bears would love to find an upgrade. Sowell is expected to move inside in camp to get some work in backing up at OG, while Jordan Sowell spent last season on IR, and has to prove himself to make the cut this camp.

Rashaad Coward is moving over from the D line to work at OG, but could see himself back on the defensive side as a NT. Brandon Greene is back, but still lacks the size for the position, and could be cut in camp. Eric Kush was supposed to get a solid amount of reps last year, but tore his hamstring in camp, and spent the year on IR. Earl Watford is a veteran who could see time at Tackle or Guard in camp. Cameron Lee is a long shot to make the cut, but is, once again, a practice squad candidate.

Cody Whitehair was solid at Center last season, and will be the one keeping Daniels from his natuaral position, for now. He may have more value at OG long term, so look for some fluidity in his situation. Hroniss Grasu is on the roster for camp, but looks like he may see the cutting room floor.

Defensive Line Breakdown
Akiem Hicks returns, and just continues to improve as he heads into his 7th season. He is largely named as one of the leaders on this defense. He led the team with 8.5 sacks last season at DE. Jonathon Bullard returns opposite Hicks, but the team needs to see consistency, or else he could eventually see his way out of his starting job. Roy Robertson-Harris backs up Hicks, but he needs to show his long game potential on the field, and he has not yet. The Bears got one of the best college players out of FCS football in the draft in Bilal Nichols, and long term, he could replace Bullard. Nick Williams was brough over from Kansas City, and should see some rotational work, but is a real special teams asset.

Eddie Goldman starts at NT, and is in a contract year. He has shown flashes in the past, but needs to put it all together in 2018 to get his deal. John Jenkins appears a lock to back up the NT spot, and has some ability to back up at DE as well.

Linebacker Breakdown
The Bears have some holes to fill at LB in the 3-4 set, and some guys coming back have got to prove themselves, startying with Leonard Floyd, who needs to prove that not only can dominate, but stay healthy as well. Aaron Lynch was brought over from San Francisco, and has a suspension in his past, and injuries as well. Both will start camp as starters at the OLB spots, but can they hold those spots?

Jonathon Anderson and Sam Acho are the backups at OLB, but neither have proven themselves on the field when given chances. Acho is a special teams ace, so that keeps him on the roster. Kylie Fitts was drafted from Utah in the 6th round, and has skill, but also has had his share of injuries, costing him field time. Isaiah Irving looked promising early last season, but then fell off hard.

First round draft choice Roquan Smith should have immediate impact as a starter at LILB, but has yet to sign his deal. Apparent language about the new head on tackle penalty seems to be a hold up point. Once in the throws of camp, he should be an Urlacher styled beast. Danny Trevathan has all the talent in the world at RILB, but cannot stay healthy. Nick Kwiatkowski backs up Smith, but again, he has had too many injury battles. John Timu is a smart backup at RILB, but his value card is shrinking with the addition of rookie Joel Iyiebuniwe out of Western Kentucky.

Secondary Breakdown
Prince Amekamara is back at CB, and is one of the better tight man coverage corners in the league, but he does not create turnovers. Kyle Fuller is back opposite him, and is on a new contract. He has to now prove that he was worth his weight in those negotiations on the field.

Bryce Callahan is the Nickel, and is one of the better players in the league at that spot, but needs to show more ability in the red zone, where he can get beat in traffic. Marcus Cooper figures in as the 4th corner, but was a real let down last season, and has more value on special teams than in coverage. Cre'Von LeBlanc is the backup at Nickel, but he could end up pushing Callahan down the line for the full time job. Sherrick McManis is a special teams leader. and a calming veteran presence in the locker room.

Doran Grant is on his fifth team, and this may be the end of the line for him if he cannot make it out of camp. Deondre Hall is not much use in coverage, and may be a camp cut.

Adrian Amos is in a contract year, and has been solid throughout his first 3 years in the league. If he has another solid season, the Bears have to pay him. Eddie Jackson is back at FS, and was a breakout star as a rookie. He and Amos make up one of the more solid Safety tandems in the NFL this season. Deon Bush has a huge opportunity as the 3rd Safety in camp, and has to make the most of it. Hall could also be given a shot to slide over from CB and back up at Safety.

DeAndre Houston-Carson finaly settled in at Safety, and should be given a shot to win a backup job in camp. He is a developer, and is rising.

Special Teams Breakdown
Cody Parkey is back as the PK, but his specialty is onside kicks, and he was successful 4 times in that area last season.

Pat O'Donnell is the perfect Punter for Solider Field, as he has several techniques he can use, depending on the conditions.

Cohen and Eddie Jackson are the KR men, and are solid in that role, while they also inhabit the depth chart as the PR men.

Final Analysis: I am not sold on Trubisky as the future at QB in Chicago. Having watched his college film, which was limited, I do not see him as the fit in the new offense that others do, and I feel like he would benefit more from being a pro set, drop back, pocket QB. He does not have the overall agility and accuracy that this offense will require of him under pressure. The line is not great, either, as both tackles and one OG spot are really questionable for me.
Defensively, the Bears have some real skill guys across the board, but the OLB spots scare me a bit, as those guys now have to prove that they are front men instead of role players, and in that defensive set, those questions are problems. The secondary and line should be decent, but Bullard, if he cannot be consistent at DE, could be a liability.
The Bears should be better this season than last, but Trubisky is squarely on the hot seat, and with several questions left to be answered, it's hard to say how much better that will be, especially with a young, first time head coach, and an OC who is probably better fitted to the college game than the pro game. Should be fun to watch, anyway.

Washington Redskins 2018 Preview

Washington Redskins 2018 Preview

Opening Statement: Jay Gruden enters his 5th season as coach of the Redskins, and his best season as coach was a 9 win season. He has to firmly on the hot seat entering the 2018 season, but as usual, chaos reigns at Redskins Park. Gruden is just 28-36-1 as head coach, and has coached just one playoff game, a loss. He is now without Kirk Cousins, as that drama finally ended when Cousins inked a deal with Minnesota. In comes Alex Smith, the proverbial journeyman who's career has been imbued with nothing but constant change. It would seem that with every patched hole this off-season, a new one tore open, so the staff has to find a way to stabilize a franchise that has seen nothing but instability in the era of Daniel Snyder as owner.

Quarterback Breakdown
Enter Alex Smith, as the Redskins acquired him via trade with the Chiefs in a move that was bold, and somewhat dumb on the Chiefs end, but more on that another day. Smith was immediately inked to a contract extension, so Smith finally gets to feel some love in a career that has largely been devoid of it for someone of his overall ability.

Colt McCoy was given a slight contract extension recently, and should serve as the backup, but Kevin Hogan is going to push him for that role in camp. Hogan could certainly end up as the 3rd QB on the roster, with the shot to be the backup coming in 2019.

Running Back Breakdown
Samaje Perine should be the starter, but he now has competition in rookie Derrius Guice, and there should be a battle between the 2 for carries in camp. Perine left that door open when he averaged just 3.4 yards per carry last season while rushing for just 603 yards and one score. Guice is a bruiser with speed to burn, and should create a solid option for a position that was nothing short of abysmal last season.

Chris Thompson was just starting to show a little pop in the run game when he broke his leg in week 11. He returns as a backup option after averaging 4.6 yards per carry, which led the team. Rob Kelley, Byron Marshall, and Keith Marshall also all ended last season on IR, and every one of them has concerns as to whether or not they will be breaking camp with this team. Kapri Bibbs was a late season pickup, but has not gotten close to proving he can cut it yet.

Receiver Breakdown
Josh Docston was healthy for the first time last season, and had a decent year, but he still has a lot yet to prove on this level. Paul Richardson was signed as a free agent, and he brings a speed game that the Redskins lacked last season, but has not produced on a consistent level to this point. Jamison Crowder is the best receiving option on the roster out of the SLOT, and should be the go to guy once again in 2017.

Maurice Harris backs up Docston, but did little last season after being brought in as a free agent before last fall. Robert Davis is expected to back up Crowder when camp begins, but spent only 4 weeks active last season, and did not catch a pass. Brian Quick backs up Richardson, but caught just 6 passes after being brought over from the Rams as a free agent last season. He caught 41 passes in 2016 with the Rams.

Trey Quinn led all college receivers with 114 receptions at SMU last season, but is a long shot to make the final roster.

Tight End Breakdown
Jordan Reed is coming off of his worst season as a pro, and needs to produce, or 2018 will be his final season in Washington. Vernon Davis, the former 49er, is back as the TE2, and was good for 648 yards last season. He is a solid option if Reed cannot stay on the field. Jeremy Sprinkle is the 3rd TE, and a primary blocker in jumbo sets. He is essentially a 3rd tackle. Manasseh Garner was active for just one game last season after spending most of the season on the Practice Squad, and will likely be a camp cut.

Offensive Line Breakdown
Trent Williams is back as the starting LT for Washington, and played hurt a chunk of last season. He should be good to go to start this season. Morgan Moses also played mostly hurt last season at RT, and had off-season ankle surgery. He should be good to go as well. Non roster invitee Cameron Jefferson is tabbed as the backup at LT heading into camp, while Tyler Catalina is looking at a move to Tackle in camp, but he should also be a primary backup at OG. Look for rookie Geron Christian to move up the depth chart quickly in camp, and become a key piece to the Tackle rotation. Ty Nsehke could shift inside to OG, but has strong value as a potential fill in starter at Tackle as well.

Tony Bergstrom was picked up from Baltimore to provide relief at Center last season, and now he should enter camp as the favorite to start at LG. Brandon Scherff is the starter at RG. He is as dependable as they come. Kyle Kalis is trying to win a job as backup at LG, but bounced back and forth on practice squads with the Redskins and Colts last season. TJ Clemmings appeared in 5 games at Tackle last fall, but ended the year on IR, and will be moved to OG. Shaun Lauvao was a late signing, and may not make the cut.

Chase Roullier is back at Center, and is favored to start from week one after starting 8 games last season. Demetrius Rhaney is being given the opportunity to back him up and win a job in camp.

Defensive Line Breakdown
There will be some movement on the line in 2018, and some position battles along the way as well.Matt Ioannidis is in a locked up battle at DE with Stacy McGee and Da'Ron Payne at the LDE spot heading into camp. I expect some sort of ultimate rotation to come out of this battle, but there are a lot of differentiating thoughts on how this battle goes down. Jonathon Allen is expected to be fully recovered from a lisfrainc sprain that caused him to miss 11 games last season. If he is back, the run defense gets an upgrade. Anthony Lanier should line up at RDE behind Allen, and could be in on long yardage passing downs as a sack specialist.

Tavaris Barnes has not made it out of a training camp since 2015, and his career could be almost over. Alex McCallister was brought in for the practice squad at the end of last season, and never saw the active roster for the Eagles before that. Neither appears to be favored to break camp at DE for the Redskins.

Ziggy Hood is back for his 10th season and will start at NT in the 3-4 defense. Phil Taylor fits in behind him, if he can stay healthy. He was a starter last season before ending up on the IR after week 2.

Tim Settle was drafted in the 5th round, but stands a solid shot to break camp with the club, and will add depth up front.

Linebacker Breakdown
The Redskins are set at the OLB spots with the ever dependable pass rush machine Ryan Kerrigan and emerging star Preston Smith. Smith broke out last season with 8 sacks, and should start to see some movement on an extension of his contract if he can continue to build on that this season. Pernell McPhee should be the backup to Kerrigan after coming over from an injury plagued run with the Bears. Ryan Anderson backs up Smith, but has to start to show something after having litle impact as a rookie in 14 games last season.

Shaun Dion Hamilton dropped to the 6th round out of Alabama in the draft due to having 2 injury plagued years at Alabama. He will have to prove that he can sustain his health and have impact to make it out of camp.

The Redskins are set at RILB as well. Zach Brown led the team with 136 tackles last season, and is a stalwart in the middle of the defense LILB may be a bit of a roller coaster in camp. Mason Foster ended up on IR last season with a shoulder injury and returns to reclaim the spot, but he has competition from Josh Harvey-Clemons and Zach Vigil, who was cut last season, before returning to start the final 4 games of the season.

Martrell Speight should serve as the primary backup to Brown and will provide some work on special teams as well. Pete Robertson comes back after spending the final 4 games of last season on the active roster, but will have to prove himself to break camp.

Secondary Breakdown
Bashaud Breeland is gone to free agency, and that leaves the door open for Quinton Dunbar to lock up one CB spot. He is by far the favorite to win the open spot, and should play opposite Josh Norman, who is one of the better corners in the game. The Redskins lost a big time player in the Alex Smith trade, as Kendall Fuller was sent off to Kansas City in the deal. Orlando Scandrick will compete with Dunbar, and Fabian Moreau figures to give it a go as well after playing mostly on special teams last season. Joshua Holsey will contribute mainly 9on special teams, but will also likely be the primary backup to Norman. Greg Stroman was drafted in the 7th round out of Virginia Tech, and figures in as the PR man, but could see some work as a corner as well.

DJ Swearinger is back at FS after leading the team with 4 INTs last season (tied with Fuller). He should be a lock there. Montae Nicholson ended the season on IR, but was strong at SS for the first half of the season. Deshazor Everett will be the backup to Nicholson once again, and will be a top special teams player, but can start if needed. Fish Smithson is entering camp as the backup to Swearinger, but may be hard pressed to break camp after spending 14 weeks on the Practice Squad last season. Troy Apke, a rookie out of Penn State, could push Smithson out of a job in camp, but has to prove that his one season as starter in college was more than a fluke.

Special Teams Breakdown
Dustin Hopkins is back at PK, and hit 14/17 FG attempts last season despite missing 8 games. If healthy, he will be a major weapon.

Tress Way is back at Punter, but the needle is pointing the wrong way on his overall production. Sam Irwin-Hill is in camp as a non roster invitee, and is there to push Way to improve, or out the door.

Byron Marshall should be the main man on KR duty, but could be joined there by Kapri Bibbs, if he makes the cut out of camp. Crowder and Moreau are the PR men heading into camp, but rookie Elijah Wellman could see some work there, as could Stroman.

Final Analysis: The Redskins are in a make or break year for head coach Jay Gruden, as a 5 year run with a losing record, and just one playoff game (a loss) will not lock you into your job in this league for long. The Alex Smith deal was solid, but the Redskins may have given up too much, especially if the overall talent level around him does not improve. Much will be on the run game and Guice on offense to make any of that happen.
Defensively, the Redskins could actually be decent, but they have to stay healthy, something they could not do last year. If key players can stay on the field, and the position battles work out at DE, LB, and CB, this unit could help carry the day.
On paper, the Redskins look like a playoff team, but not a title contender. They also look like a team squarely on the bubble. If they fail to get to the next level, Gruden could be unemployed.



Monday, July 30, 2018

Philadelphia Eagles 2018 Preview

Philadelphia Eagles 2018 Preview

Opening Statement: The Eagles finally broke through in 2017 and won a Super Bowl, and they should be a favorite to return once again in 2018. Whether or not Carson Wentz should be 100% after a major knee injury last season (he won't be) will be a matter of non consequence, as Nick Foles, the hero who replaced him, returns as an insurance policy at QB. Jason Peters will return at LT from an ACL injury, and that is an immediate upgrade. With several other additions, and returnees, this should be another solid season in Philadelphia.

Quarterback Breakdown
Wentz is pushing himself to be ready by the opener, but nobody really believes that he will be nearly 100% when that game against Atlanta takes place, so look for Foles to be ready to be under center until Wentz is fully ready to be who he was before his injury. There is absolutely zero reason at this point to risk Wentz and his knee, so why do it? Foles is perfectly suited to hold down the fort until Wentz is back at full strength, and then the Eagles can address what to do with either player.

Nate Sudfield should break camp as the 3rd QB after completing 19/23 passes in his lone start last season. He provides solid relief and insurance, especially with Wentz and his uncertain status. Joe Callahan was brought in as a camp body, and joins his 4th organization in 3 years, with all of 7 pass attempts in the league to his name.

Running Back Breakdown
Jay Ajayi is the listed primary starter, but the Eagles may approach this position with more of a committee attack in mind. Ajayi is solid, and can break the big run when necessary, as he had 12 carries of 10 yards or more after he joined the team last year from Miami. Corey Clement was an undrafted rookie last season, but really came through in a pinch, and showed solid value as a runner and as a receiver. He should get plenty of reps this season. Darren Sproles continues to provide value  as he has 14 years under his belt in the league. He will provide work as the 3rd back and PR man.

Wendell Smallwood is slipping on the depth chart, as he struggles in pass protection. He could find himself on the outs at the end of camp, if he does not show improvement. Matt Jones is a big, bruising short yardage back, but was brought in mainly as a camp body, and may not make the final cut. He carried just 5 times with Indianapolis last season.

Donnel Pumphery is the wild card here, as he spent his entire rookie season on the IR after breaking the FBS rushing record at San Diego State. He will really have to show some value in camp this season.

Receiver Breakdown
Alshon Jeffery scored 8 TDs in the red zone last season, and led all Eagles receivers with 9 TDs. He will still be the go to guy as the number one receiver on the roster. Nelson Agholar was on his way out until he was moved to the SLOT role last season, and he exploded to become an incredibly productive and dependable target. He returns as well. Veteran Mike Wallace was signed to add some depth as the 3rd receiver, and has been seriously productive the last 2 seasons. He will provide excellent leadership and production.

Mack Hollins returns as the top backup at WR this season, and will provide extra value on special teams. He backs up Jeffery, and will be the 4th receiver in extended receiver sets. Markus Wheaton adds more value as a veteran FA signee, and will work his way in as the 5th receiver.

Shelton Gibson, Bryce Treggs, and Marquess Wilson will all be looking to make their mark on special teams, but are long shots to make the final cut.

Tight End Breakdown
Zach Ertz returns as the starting TE after 8 red zone TDs last season, and he will be a primary piece of the offensive game plan every week. He has some help as well in rookie Dallas Goedert, who has the ability to line up almost anywhere the team asks him to. Goedert has already opened up some eyes in pre-season workouts, and should be a rock solid addition.

Joshua Perkins and Richard Rodgers will be battling for the 3rd TE job. Rodgers has produced in the past, but seems to be heading in the wrong direction, while Perkins is more of a blocking option.

Offensive Line Breakdown
Having Peters back at LT is a solid upgrade for the Eagles. He is at the end of his career now at 36, but even now, he could still be a top 10 tackle in the league, if fully healthy. Lane Johnson broke through last fall at RT, and was named 1st team All-Pro. He should be dominant once again. Halapoulivaati Vaitai took over for Peters last season, and gives the Eagles a 3rd tackle with rock solid starting experience and ability. Taylor Hart will also be looking for work as a 4th Tackle, if he can make the final cut. Hart will battle with rookie Matt Pryor, who could be one of the biggest Tackles in the league. Jordan Mailata was drafted after never having played football. The massive rugby player from Australia is a big time project.

Stefan Wisniewski is back at LG this season, and is one of the more quality Guards in the league. He could be in for an All-Pro season. Brandon Brooks was considered as one of the best Guards in the league last season at RG, and should provide yet another piece that drives the Eagles hunt for another title. Chance Warmack got a ton of reps last season, and will once again be the top backup at both OG spots. Isaac Seumalo left camp last year as the starter at LG, but was benched 2 weeks in. He could be on the way out.

Jason Kelce starts at Center, and is one of the most disciplined linemen in the game. Jon Toth is in camp as a non roster invitee, but is listed as the primary backup to Kelce heading into camp.

Defensive Line Breakdown
The DE position is loaded with talent, and in year 2 under Jim Schwartz, this unit should be even more comfortable and effective. Michael Bennett came over in a trade with Seattle, and can provide work inside and out. He will be the most moved about defender on the line this season. Derek Barnett showed serious flashes as a rookie last season, and returns to start as well, replacing Vinny Curry. If Barnett stays in a rotational role, he will share the right side with Bennett, while Brandon Graham and Chris Long rotate on the left side. Graham is entering the final year of his contract. Rookie Josh Sweat will try to find his way into the rotation at DE, and is one of the more athletic players on the roster. Steven Means has ability, but gets lost in the shuffle a bit, and may not make the cut.

Fletcher Cox is one of the most dominating interior players in the NFL. He will return to create disruption and chaos at DT once again, while he is joined by Tim Jernigan, who spent some time trying to find his way last season. More will be expected of him in 2018. Destiny Vaeao is ready to take the next step in his development this season as the backup to Cox. Haloti Ngata was signed as a free agent after an injury filled season in 2017, but if he is healthy, the rich just got richer. The team is also still intrigued with Elijah Qualls, but he had some trouble finding the field as a rookie last fall. Aziz Shittu has never been able to find his way onto the active unit, and was on the practice squad last season after missing all of 2016 on the IR. He may be a camp cut.

Linebacker Breakdown
Mychal Kendricks is now gone, having moved on to Cleveland, but there is still talent here. Nigel Bradham may be one of the more underrated LBs in the league, and was the field general last season after Jordan Hicks was injured. Hicks returns this season, but he has missed a lot of football in his first 3 years in the league (over 33%). He has to stay healthy, or the Eagles have to start finding other options for the MIKE spot. Nathan Gregory and Kamu Grugier-Hill are both battling in camp to take over the Kendricks role, but both have more of a special teams resume than one at LB.

Corey Nelson and Paul Worrilow will both be looking to add some depth at the WILL spot, and Worrilow also provides insurance at MIKE if Hicks goes down again. Joe Walker has some experience as a starter, but has not emerged as a riser yet.

Secondary Breakdown
Ronald Darby and Sidney Jones will both be starting at CB this season. Darby had some issues staying healthy last season, and is in the final year of his deal. Jones missed almost all of last season with an achilles injury, but seems ready to go this fall. Both have a lot to prove.

Jalen Mills could push for one of the starting jobs in camp, or could line up as the Nickel Corner against the slot. Rasul Douglas is the 4th corner, but could see plenty of field time as well. He will likely see time at both corner and safety. Jalen Mills should also see time in both spots as a reserve. Avonte Maddox, a rookie out of Pittsburgh, should also see some time as a rotational player, as the staff is intrigued with him. Randall Gofourth, a college Safety at UCLA, spent his entire rookie season on IR after an ACL tear. It's time to show what he has or be a camp cut. De'Vante Bausby has serious speed at Corner, but has not shown what he can do as of yet.

Malcolm Jenkins (SS) and Rodney McLeod (FS) form up one of the best Safety combos in the NFL. McLeod needs to have a huge season, however, as his cap number shot up by $5.3 million this season. Jenkins may line up all over the place, as Schwartz loves using him as a versatile weapon.

Tre Sullivan is back up from the practice squad, and it's time to show up or move out. Bausby could see a move to Safety to back up McLeod. Chris Maragos is back, and is the special teams leader, but missed a ton of time to injury last season.

Special Teams Breakdown
Jake Elliott was perfect in the playoffs, and returns as the PK after missing just 3 attempts all of last season. He will handle KO duty as well.

Cameron Johnston, a non roster invitee this season, should win the starting job at P, as he is the only option as of now.

Clement and Smallwood are your KR duo entering camp, while Sproles is your man on PR duty in his 14th season. Pumphery will likely back him up in that role.

Final Assessment: If the Eagles have any issues, it's on the back end of the defense at LB and CB. There is some talent in both areas, for certain, but not a lot of stability, and there are plenty of injury concerns as well. If injuries take hold, the Eagles could definitely get derailed there. If health holds up, the Eagles should be one of the deepest teams in the NFL across the board, and another Super Bowl chase should ensue. The health of Wentz is important, but not paramount right now, and there are weapons across the board at the disposal of Foles in the meantime, and the line should be one of the bets in the league. We should be seeing clear flying for the Eagles once again.

New York Giants 2018 Preview

Opening Statement: Things could not have gone more wrong for the Giants in 2017 under Ben McAdoo. The handling of the benching of Eli Manning was all wrong, the team was flat from the start, and the OBJ injury and off-field (alleged) drug issues and contract demands were a huge distraction. The Giants finished just 3-13, and were just 1-5 in their division. The Giants are now under new management, with Pat Shurmer being hired as head coach, and like it or not, Eli Manning is still in charge at QB. If the Giants were going all in with Eli, they did it the right way by adding help for him in the draft, which was the right thing to do. While the Giants should be improved in 2018, with a fresh outlook, are they going to be improved enough to delete all memory of 2017, and get back to making a playoff push?

Quarterback Breakdown
There is no denying that Eli Manning is closer to the end of his career than the beginning. Manning's benching last season was hardly shocking to most, but it was handled poorly, which created some massive backlash. Shurmer believes that he can milk some late career solid football from Manning, and so he is back under center for at least one more season, but he has to prove early on that he can still get it done, because he really is the only QB on the roster that can go out and get it done.

Davis Webb is still considered as the primary backup as of this moment, but that could change, as Kyle Lauletta was not drafted out of Richmond for him not to be considered as a possible heir apparent to Manning down the road. Lauletta received a serious degree of hype for an FCS product last spring, and while he still has to prove himself, one has to believe that there is a plan for him moving forward.

Alex Tanney, a veteran reserve, was signed as a camp body, but is a long shot to actually make the cut out of camp.

Running Back Breakdown
It's Saquon Barkley's job to hold down after being drafted with the second pick out of Penn State. Barkley was the perfect weapon to add to the arsenal if you wanted to give Manning the vote of confidence. He has serious skill as a runner, as a receiver, and in the return game as well. Manning should fall in love with Barkley early on, and he should be his most valued asset.

Jonathon Stewart was also added to the mix as a UFA from Carolina. He is well past his prime, but he still has some ability and gas left to work with Barkley to kick what was a lifeless unit back into gear in 2018.

Wayne Gallman is one of the few backs returning from last season's mess, and it is believed that he should eventually surpass Stewart as the primary backup.

Shane Smith is back as the H-Back/FB, but his odds to stick out of camp are long.

Receiver Breakdown
It all basically starts and ends with Odell Beckham at WR for the Giants this season. He has to prove a few things. He has to prove that he can stay healthy, has to prove that he is properly motivated, and has to prove that he can put all off-field shenanigans behind him, if he truly wants to be one of the highest paid players in the league, and the overall best at his position. The talent is there, but not the maturity nor the hubris needed to be that guy.

Sterling Shepard is back and should be fully healthy after also suffering injury issues last season (ankles). He has all the tools to succeed, and should be an excellent option, if he can stay on the field and work out of the SLOT position.

Roger Lewis is listed as the starting 3rd receiver, but he is no lock to make the team after he largely under performed last season. He could be pushed in camp by Travis Rudolph, who impressed last season.

Kalif Raymond is slated to back up Beckham, but is no lock to make it either as a receiver, or as a KR man after largely fading at both spots last season. Hunter Sharp goes into camp backing up Shepard, but he may not make the cut out of camp.

Keon Johnson is trying to come back from a season lost to a broken foot. Marquis Bundy and Cody Latimer will need to make marks on special teams to stick.

Tight End Breakdown
Rhett Ellison and Evan Engram are locks, and will often see time out of a 2 TE set offense. Both had solid seasons last season, and Engram may end up being one of the more unsung players in the league this season.

Jerrell Adams is a big TE who is more of a blocker, but worked hard in the off-season to improve as a receiver as well, and could be a dark horse to get some reps this season. Kyle Carter was brought over from the Vikings with Shurmer, and will push Adams in camp. Ryan O'Malley is another option, and will push his way to final cuts.

Offensive Line Breakdown
While Nate Solder is an absolute lock at LT, the RT job could be a big camp battle between Ereck Flowers and Chad Wheeler. Flowers held out of off-season workouts, and the new staff is not pleased, and that opened the door for Wheeler, a 2nd year man out of USC, to make a move for the job.

Patrick Omameh is all locked in at LG, and will replace Justin Pugh, but the RG spot is also a camp battle. Rookie phenom Will Hernandez out of UTEP should push his way into the job after what should be an interesting battle with John Jerry, who had his contract shortened during the off-season.

Brett Jones appears to have locked down the full time job as the starter at Center this season, and should fly through camp.

Nick Becton will be a lock to back up at the OT spots, but can really play anywhere on the line, making him extremely valuable. John Greco should back up at Guard, and has a relationship with Shurmur. John Halapio is a lock to back up at C, and will see time at OG as well. He is another name to watch in that RG competition, but he has more value coming off the bench for now.

Breakdown Defensive Line
Kerry Wynn will be starting at LDE for the Giants for the first month of the season while Josh Mauro will be serving a 4 game suspension. Wynn is more of a run stuffer than pass rusher, so that should be an interesting look for a month. Dalvin Tomlinson will also line up to start at RDE in the revamped defensive front. Robert Thomas will likely move out from NT to back up at DE, but he could see some action at NT as well.

Speaking of NT, the Giants are moving to a 3-4 set this season, and Damon Harrison will be the primary plug in the middle. He is one of the better run stuffers in the league. BJ Hill is a primising rookie out of NC State, and should see a solid amount of reps behind Harrison.

Josh Banks could move up from the practice squad this season, especially early with the Mauro suspension at DE. Avery Moss mised part of spring workouts, and may really have to make a mark to make the cut.

AJ Francis was signed as a FA from the Titans in the middle, in case the youngsters are not ready to get serious time in. RJ McIntosh is a solid option inside or out, and has serious reserve value.

Linebacker Breakdown
With the switch to a 3-4 set, the Giants are depending on some new role players to get things done at LB, starting with Olivier Vernon at LOLB, who replaces Chandler Jones as the outside edge rusher. Kareem Martin will take over at ROLB, and will largely replace Jonathon Casillas, who has also departed in the rebuild. Alec Ogletree was acquired via trade, and will start at the LILB, and will largely be the vocal leader in the middle of the defense. BJ Goodson is the only returning starter, and will play RILB, but had some injury issues that cost him more than half the season in 2017. He is hoping for a bounce back.

Avery Moss may kick out from DE to back up Kareem Martin on occasion, while rookie Lorenzo Carter, a 3rd round pick out of Georgia, will likely back up Vernon. Ray-Ray Armstrong projects as a backup inside, but is not a lock to stick, while Mark Herzlich is a candidate to win the job backing up Goodson after missing the last 2 seasons.

Thurston Ambrister, Derrick Matthews, Calvin Munson, Romeo Okwara, and Jordan Williams will all be looking to find a roster spot in camp.

Secondary Breakdown
Eli Apple returns at one CB spot this fall, but he was not what he should have been a year ago, and there was plenty of drama around him. If he continues down that path, he may have some issues sticking in New York beyond the end of the 2018 season. Janoris Jenkins starts at the opposite corner spot, but again, he also had a seriously up and down season in 2017, and had injury issues as well. The Giants could use some upgrades at the corner spots, but will be content to let both situations iron out this season, if they can be ironed out.

William Gay was picked up as a free agent in the off-season, and will fill the spot vacated by the loss of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. He will be repsonsible for covering the slot out of the Nickel defense, and will primarily backup Apple. BW Webb was also brought in as a FA for depth, and will serve as the backup to Jenkins, and work out on special teams.

Donte Williams, Brandon Dixon, CJ Goodwin, Tim Scott, and Teddy Williams will be scratching to make the camp cut at a position loaded with bodies at CB.

If Landon Collins is healthy at SS, he should be a major boost after having a second surgery for a broken arm. He is a former pro bowler who is looking for a return to form. The FS spot is not so cut and dried heading into camp, as Michael Thomas was signed as a FA to compete with Darian Thompson, who did little to lock down the job with his production last season. That will be a spot to watch in camp.

Andrew Adams returns as the 3rd Safety, and will likely see time at both Safety spots this season as the top backup. Curtis Riley was also signed to add depth at both spots, and should have his role defined based on camp production.

Special Teams Breakdown
Aldrick Rosas returns as the starter at PK, but again, he was not solid last season, and he could be pushed by Marshall Koehn, a 2nd year kicker from Iowa. Rosas is the predominant favorite to win the job, but again, this job bares watching in camp.

Brad Wing is gone at P, and Riley Dixon was acquired in a trade with Denver. He will have the job as we enter camp.

Sterling Shepard and Shane Smith are listed as the primary kick return men, while Kalif Raymond opens camp as the PR man.

Final Analysis: The Giants are going to be a work in progress this season, as they are coming back from a bottom out season that was the spark for change on the staff. Pat Shurmur has not had success in the league as a head coach before, but there is hope that his stint as OC in Minnesota has given him the surge he needed to turn the corner. With Eli Manning back, the Giants did the smart thing and did not waste a pick in the draft on another QB, and rather stuck to their plan and guns by drafting Barkley, an all-purpose weapon that will become one of Manning's new go to targets. The window is short for Manning, however, and winning now, rather than later, should be the goal. The only real issue is that it may not seem that the Giants have the ability to make that push, especially if all of the injuries set in once more.


Friday, July 27, 2018

Dallas Cowboys 2018 Preview

Dallas Cowboys 2018 Preview

Opening Statement: The suspension drama involving Zeke Elliott last season really cast a long shadow over the Cowboys in 2017, but they still managed a 5-1 record within the division, including a 6-0 bore fest win over the eventual champion Eagles in the season finale. What the Cowboys should be seeking for the 2018 season is calm. A drama free season would go far in further developing Dak Prescott at QB, and in reducing the off-field issues, the Cowboys may just be able to move in a forward direction and get back to the playoffs, but only if they can find a way to answer some deep questions about the roster. 

Quarterback Breakdown
Prescott is the man, and of that there is no doubt. He had some solid moments in 2017, but there are still some pressing issues with turning over the football, and his 22/13 TD:INT ratio. He completed 62.9% of his passes, but what will be something that bares watching with him is who he will find to throw the football to. We will discuss that shortly. Prescott adds a second dimension in the run game, as he averaged 6.3 yards per carry last season, but the Cowboys cannot become reliant on him running the football, or they will risk their best asset at the position to severe injury over time. Prescott has been solid, but this 3rd year in the league will be paramount to deciding whether or not he can be the real deal across the board.

Depth behind Prescott at the position is not all that solid. They need him to remain healthy.
Cooper Rush is now in year 2, and was shockingly the backup last season. He attempted all of 3 passes last season, and canot be relied upon if something happens to Prescott. He could even be pushed by rookie Mike White, who was drafted in the 5th round. White had a back step in production in his final season at Western Kentucky, but that was heavily based on a coaching change, and White did not fit the new style of offense. White is not ready for field action as of now, and will need some solid development time. Dalton Sturm is a non roster invite to training camp, but he is a long shot to make it into the season on the active roster. 

Running Back Breakdown
Zeke Elliott returns for a full season, which is great news for both the run game and the passing game, as he is a huge threat in both facets of the offense. He ran for 983 yards last season and 7 scores, but he was distracted, dealing with impending suspension. The biggest issue for Elliott will be whether or not he can keep his head right. That has always been an issue with him, and it came back to haunt him last season. If he can keep himself in line, on and off of the field, the Cowboys benefit greatly. 

Rod Smith returns as the primary backup and 3rd down back, but is in the final year of his current deal. He carried just 55 times last fall, and may get pushed in camp. Tavon Austin was added via trade, and will be a multi-purpose player at both RB and WR, and could take work away from Smith. Bo Scarbrough was added in the draft, and could be a punishing short yardage back, but has to earn his way in as a 7th round pick. It would not shock me to see him stick. Trey Williams was stuck on the practice squad last season, and his odds are long. 

Jamize Olawale was acquired via trade with Oakland to take on the FB job, and could be one of the more unsung backs in the league. He should have a solid impact in the run game as the lead blocker. 

Receiver Breakdown
Dez Bryant is gone, and Allen Hurns is probably being leaned on more than anyone else to replace him as a free agent signing. The problem is that Hurns is probably not up to that task all by himself. Hurns is solid, but the role of leading receiver may have to take on several names this season, and depth is not great. Terrence Williams has never really lived up to this billing in Dallas, and he is a free agent after the season. Short of having a huge season, he likely will not be back. Deonte Thompson played in all 16 games last season in Buffalo, but his spot is not locked down on this roster. Cole Beasley also returns, but he took several steps back last season, and could be looking at his final season with the Cowboys short of a huge return to form. The Cowboys upgraded in the draft at the position by adding Michael Gallup and Cedrick Wilson, and both rookies could see extensive playing time. Noah Brown and Lance Lenoir will both need to show something on special teams, but they don't bring much else to the table. 

Breakdown Tight End
With Jason Witten now retired, the Cowboys are resetting at this position. Geoff Swaim could win the job, but he is more of a blocker than a receiver, and that could remove an entire piece from the offense. They may have to use a 2 TE set more often than not, as Blake Jarwin could be used as more of the receiver (H) TE than the blocker (Y) that Swaim is. Dalton Schultz was drafted out of Stanford, and he could have a role this season as a rookie. Rico Gathers may not make the cut, as the team is really questioning his dedication. 

Breakdown Offensive Line
The Cowboys continue to have one of the best lines in football, and there is only one change this fall, with the addition of rookie Connor Williams sliding into the starting LG spot, with the hopes that he will eventually kick out long term to LT. Williams was the Cowboys' first round selection out of Texas, and was considered as a top five lineman by most scouting services. Tyron Smith returns at LT, and is simply one of the best in football. Travis Frederick looks to be an annual pro bowl selection at C, and Zack Martin is a future Hall of Fame candidate at RG. La'El Collins is developing nicely at RT, and the hope is that he will show some major improvement in 2018. 

Marcus Martin is a solid add who will back up at both C and G, while Cameron Fleming will be the top backup at the OT spots. Chaz Green (OT), Kadeem Edwards (OG) and Joe Looney (OG) will be looking for reps in camp as well. Edwards and Green are likely on their last shot to make the roster in camp, as they have not developed as the team would have liked. Martin and Fleming were additions as UFAs from New England, and they have made it harder on Green and Edwards to lock down spots. 

Breakdown Defensive Line
DeMarcus Lawrence is back on the franchise tag and will be working for a long term deal this season, which should eventually be a no brainer for the franchise to get done. He book ends nicely with Tyrone Crawford, who is a solid player, but gets knocked because he signed an elite contract, and while solid, he is not of elite status at DE. Maliek Collins is back at DT, and may see more of a natural rotation as a DT instead of getting stuck at NT. David Irving also returns at DT, but he has not lived up to what he could be thus far, and looks to prove his talent in a contract year. He is not attending camp because of unspecified off-field issues, and that could signal the end for him. 

The Cowboys brought in some depth at DE, and some at DT, but signing Kony Ealy as a UFA from the Jets this off-season. He should see plenty of reps inside and outside, and could be a guy who could push Irving out of a job for the 2019 season if all works out. Taco Charlton was drafted out of Michigan to also add more depth and flexibility up front, but he needs a big year 2 jump to do so to push his way into increased reps. Jihad Ward was acquired in a trade with Seattle, and with Irving out, he could push his way into the starting job at DT. Antwuan Woods was signed to come to camp and compete for time at DT. 

Dorance Armstrong was drafted out of Kansas and could see some reps as a RUSH end. Randy Gregory has also been reinstated by the league office, so look for him to get in on some action at DE. 

Richard Ash (DT), Datone Jones (DT), Lewis Neal (DT), Brian Price (NT), Daniel Ross (DT), and Charles Tapper (DE) could all be camp cut casualties. 

Breakdown LB
The Cowboys drafted Leighton Vander Esch in the 1st round, and he is a beast that receives comparisons to Brian Urlacher. He is a serious threat off the edge, and should be in hunter/killer mode every time he is on the field. He may be a candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year before all is said and done. 

Sean Lee is back once again outside, as he comes off a 118 tackles season. He is simply one of the best in the game at this point, and will be the leader of this defense. 

Jaylon Smith will start at MLB this season, and showed some pop after missing the 2016 season with a knee injury that had happened in college. He is still a work in progress, but is showing the team that he is developing. 

Justin March-Lillard and Damien Wilson are listed as backups outside heading into training camp, but Wilson is in the final year of his deal, and looks to be on the outs. March-Lillard needs to show some pop early in camp to maintain a roster spot. Tre'Von Johnson is the backup at MLB, but again, is no lock to make the cut. 

Joe Thomas was signed from Green Bay, and will push one of the mentioned backups out of a job, as he can work at any of the 3 spots in the unit, and should be able to outplay all of them. Chris Covington is an athletic and rangy rookie out of Indiana, and he, too, will be put into a position to win a job as a backup and special teams ace. 

Breakdown Secondary
The secondary is not as rock solid as in years past. Byron Jones has been moved to CB from Safety, as the staff is still trying to find the best spot for him as he enters year 4 in the league. He will be joined by second year man Chidobe Awuzie, who spent a chunk of his rookie campaign banged up. Awuzie has big cover skills at CB, but now needs to show that it is all more than potential, and that he can do the job and stay on the field this season. 

Xavier Woods is stepping into the FS job, but again, he is more potential than real production at this point. The Cowboys are taking a real chance here. Kavon Frazier is being given a run at SS, but again, is unproven as a full time starter. 

If Frazier does not work out as a starter at SS, he slides over as the backup to Woods, while Jeff Heath and Jameill Showers will then take their shots at SS. Showers is a former QB making the transition to defense, but does not have a guaranteed deal at this time. 

Anthony Brown is a solid backup at CB, and should be considered a lock to break camp. He can cover both sides of the field, and is likely the NB against the SLOT. JOurdan Lewis will likely backup at CB as well, and will have an even shot at NB, and should see time in the DIME as well.

Marqueston Huff (CB) and Duke Thomas (CB) are both on the roster currently, but wil have a tough time making the cut. 

Breakdown Special Teams
Dan Bailey is back at PK, but came back weakly from injury last season, and had a miserable final month. He could be pushed by camp body Brett Maher. 

Chris Jones has no such problem at Punter, as he averaged 44.1 yards per punt, and nailed down 34 punts inside the 20 last season. He is a lock. 

LP Ladouceur is back as the long snapper, but rookie Scott Daly could give him a solid push in camp. 

Rookie Jordan Chunn could see some work at KR in camp, and could join KD Cannon on kickoffs this season. 

Cole Beasley likely sticks to his PR job, but has competition in camp from Lance Lenoir and Marchie Murdock, a rookie out of Iowa State. 

Final Analysis: The Cowboys should bounce back somewhat from a severely disappointing 2017 season, but they do not have enough talent to remove the Eagles as the class of the NFC East. There are issues at WR that must be ironed out, and the 4 TEs who should see a majority of work in camp combined for just 9 catches last season, and with Witten and Bryant both gone, the Cowboys have a huge void to fill in the passing game. Defensively, the Cowboys look solid up front, but depth at LB and in the secondary could come back to haunt them if injuries start to take hold early in the season. The Cowboys are still in the hunt for a trade in training camp, as they were seriously discussing a deal for Earl Thomas with Seattle recently. I am not certain that is the deal that takes place, but they are in the hunt for some help in the secondary, specifically at Safety. All in all, I expect a solid season, but not solid enough to win the Super Bowl, or win the NFC East. A playoff birth will have to suffice. 


Friday, July 20, 2018

Big Sky Conference 2018 Football Preview

The Big Sky is nothing if not ever changing when it comes to the hierarchy of the conference in recent years. Weber State and Southern Utah overachieved last season, with Weber State ending up as co-champs. North Dakota, Eastern Washington, and Cal Poly all fell well short of projections last fall, and are trying to bounce back, while Idaho returns from the FBS ranks to their former home. Here is how we see the Big Sky breaking down in 2018:

1. Weber State
The Wildcats are trying to make a 3rd consecutive trip to the FCS (1-AA) playoff s for the first time in school history, and are coming off a co-championship season in Big Sky play. Coach Jay Hill has this program running in the right direction. Weber State returns 5 all-conference selections, and finished last fall ranked 5th nationally. The goal this fall is to move past the quaterfinals, and break out in the round of 4. Weber State finished last fall with the best special teams unit in the nation, and had the best defense in the conference. That all bodes well for the Wildcats to win the outright league title. The schedule is difficult, so repeating 11 wins may be tough, but as far as returning talent is concerned, the Wildcats are best suited to weather the storm in the Big Sky.

2. Eastern Washington
The Eagles fell well short of where we thought they would be a year ago. With Gage Gubrud returning at QB, and Antoine Custer, Jr. back at RB, the offense should be fully charged to get EWU back into the playoffs, which they missed out on last season. It was just the 2nd time in 22 years that the Eagles fell short of a playoff bid. 17 total starters return this fall, making this team the squad that could push Weber State out of the way at the top.

3. Northern Arizona
The Lumberjacks return QB Case Cookus, who passed for 3413 yards last fall, and may have saved the job of coach Jerome Souers, whowas all set to be fired at the end of the season. Souers is back as well, as is WR Emmanuel BUtler, who missed most of last season, but has 2541 yards receiving for his career. The run game is solid, and the defense is deep. NAU could push forward into a top 2 finish with some extra bounces.

4. Montana
Gone is Bob Stitt, probably before his time, and back in is former coach Bobby Hauck, one of the best coaches in school history. Hauck fell well short as a head coach at UNLV, and has been kicking around the staff at San Diego State, and when the bell rang, he returned to open arms. Montana has struggled a bit in recent seasons, and getting back to the playoffs will be goal number one. Gresch Jensen returns at QB after surprising as a freshman last fall, and the offense should click. Getting sustained pressure up front on defense will be key.

5. Idaho
The Vandals return after more than 2 decades away from the Big Sky. Paul Petrino is back as head coach, but he loses most of his skill players on offense. The defensive side of the football is relatively stable and set, and they may have to carry the team for a bit. The Vandals travel to both Fresno State and Florida out of conference, so this could be a bumpy ride.

6. Southern Utah
The Thunderbirds shocked everyone by winning 9 games and tying for the league title, but they won't be able to sneak up on any one this fall. Demario Warren received a contract extension after last season through 2022, which will stabilize the top of the program, but the defense got shredded with losses from last fall. The run game should be decent, and there is some talent at receiver returning, but finding someone to throw the ball will be paramount. Stopping people will be difficult, however, and I can see SUU falling back to where they should have been last year.

7. Sacramento State
The Hornets are projected all over the place, anywhere from 4th to 8th, coming back in 2018. Jody Sears was named coach of the year in the conference last fall after driving the Hornets to 7 wins, but they still fell just short of a playoff birth, even with a 6-2 record in Big Sky play. Kevin Thompson is back at QB, and Bryant Perkinson leads a rock solid rushing attack, but can the defense slow people down? That's a solid question.

8. Montana State
The Bobcats get Chris Murray back at QB, and he is a huge run threat after rushing for 1124 yards last fall. The line returns 4 starters, which should help the run game to keep moving along. The main issue will be finding play makers on defense, which they struggled to do last fall. The good news is that the Bobcats are coming off of a win against Montana.

9. UC Davis
The Aggies get back star receiver Keelan Doss, and coach Dan Hawkins made waves by winning 5 games last fall for a program that has long struggled since moving up to FCS football. Jake Meier returns at QB after passing for 3669 yards, but the defense could use a boost. It's all about the long term plan, and the Aggies are moving in the right direction.

10. Cal Poly
The Mustangs fell hard in 2017, and are still not in a position to make much of a rebound this season. I, along with many others, had projected this team as a playoff candidate last season. but they never got off the ground. Losing FB Joe Protheroe killed the Mustangs last fall, but losing one FB in a triple option offense should not have had that effect. There are some key roster issues here that need fixing in a hurry.

11. Northern Colorado
There are decent pieces on both sides of the football for the Bears, but there is not enough roster cohesion to win big for Earnest Collins. UNC is coming off of a 3 win season, and they may be lucky to get back tot hat again this fall. WR Alex Wesley leads the offense, while Keifer Morris is the leader on defense at DE after recording 9 sacks.

12. Idaho State
There is plenty of talent on the offensive side, as the Bengals are led by 3 year starter Tanner Gueller, but there is not nearly as much talent defensively, and that could be a problem as the Bengals try to build with coach Rob Phenicie. They won 4 games last fall after back to back 2 win seasons, so there is progress.

13. Portland State
The Vikings were undone by a brutal schedule last fall, but at this point, this program is merely trying to learn how not to lose, and that is a tough task. Look for the Vikings to rely on their ground game on offense, but finding overall play makers on either side of the football will be key in fall camp.

Note: North Dakota has moved on to the Missouri Valley Conference, and was replaced this year by Idaho. 

Thursday, July 19, 2018

College Football Week Zero and One Picks

With college football just 5 weeks away, here is my analysis on the opening week zero and one lines on each game posted by vegasinsider.com. Get my analysis, and all of our picks here:

http://bilosports.blogspot.com/p/power-rated-sports-premium-subscription.html

CFL Week 6 Picks

There are 4 games on the CFL slate this week, including Montreal at Calgary, as the Stampeders try to remain as the last undefeated team in the league this week. Get all of our picks here:

http://bilosports.blogspot.com/p/power-rated-sports-premium-subscription.html

Tuesday, July 17, 2018

2018 College Football Team Previews: Wyoming Cowboys

Wyoming Cowboys 2018 Football Preview

Opening Statement: When I met with both QB Josh Allen and coach Craig Bohl last July at the Mountain West Football Media Summit, I felt, as many did, that Allen was due for a massive season, and that the Cowboys would absolutely push Boise State for the Mountain Division title in the Mountain West Conference. Allen did not have a breakout season, still left anyway, and Wyoming won just 8 games, 5 in conference play, and they finished tied for 2nd in the division. That's not what anyone envisioned a year ago. Now Allen is gone, and a RS freshman could be replacing him. While the offense crumbled to nothing, and Allen coasted through the season on minimal effort, the defense, led by Safety Andrew Wingard and others, played well beyond expectations. This is the season where everything must balance out, because Allen and his immense shadow have moved on, and there is plenty of light to go around.

Breakdown Offense: With Allen, and his half-hearted effort, now in the NFL, the QB position is on reset, and the Cowboys could be a little bit better off with a player who does not have one foot out the door. RS freshman Tyler Vander Waal ended spring ball as the leader here, while Nick Smith, the primary backup a year ago who many felt would move up, is still in that role. Smith still has a solid shot to take the job in camp, so this is far from a settled situation. Anything will be an improvement over the Cowboys of last season, where they ranked 103rd nationally in passing.

The Cowboys run game was a mess last fall as well, as they ranked 117th in the nation in rushing yards per game. Kellen Overstreet has taken over at the top of the depth chart after rushing for 481 yards and 3 scores, while he averaged 4.41 yards per carry. Nico Evans, who only managed to run for an average of 1.73 yards per carry showed some life this spring, and has moved up to the 2nd spot on the depth chart, while Trey Woods, who led the team in rushing with 493 yards last season, has slid to 3rd on the depth chart. Jaylon Watson, a junior, takes over at FB, with Austin Lopez installed as his backup.

The Cowboys were young at WR last season, but a year of experience has payed off, as Austin Conway and James Price both return as experienced starters. Conway caught 61 passes last fall for 549 yards and 3 scores, but averaged just 9 yards per catch. Price caught 20 passes for 282 yards and one score. CJ Johnson should see plenty of reps after catching 7 TD passes to go with 30 receptions for 531 yards. He brings what the others don't...a field stretching capability. He averaged 17.7 yards per catch. Jared Scott backs up Price. Dontae Crow and Ayden Eberheardt will try to add some depth.

Tyree Mayfield also returns to start at TE after catching 11 passes last fall. Austin Fort and Josh Harshman both return after combining for 22 receptions on the season. Wyoming will have perhaps the best TE unit in the conference in 2018.

The line had serious issues last fall, and returns 3 starters in Zach Wallace (LT), Kaden Jackson (RG), and Alonzo Velazquez (RT). Eric Abojei (LG) and Keegan Cryder (C) will be the new starters. Rudy Stofer and Pahl Schwab are the backups at Tackle, while Gavin Rush and Zach Thatcher are the primary backups at OG. Logan Harris will bring more depth at OG, and Patrick Arnold is the backup at C.

Breakdown Defense: Where the offense struggled immensely, the defense was one of the best in the nation last fall. Wyoming ranked 9th in scoring defense, 13th against the pass, and 23rd in total defense. They struggles somewhat against the pass at times, and ranked 60th against the pass.

The line is loaded with 3 starters returning in DE Carl Granderson, NT Sidney Malauulu, and DT Youhanna Ghaifan. Granderson and Ghaifan combine to be one of the best D line combos in the nation. Grandrson totaled 16 TFLs last season, and added 8.5 sacks, while Ghaifan added 15.5 TFLs and 7 sacks. Malauulu was limited to just 7 games last fall, and totaled 1.5 TFLs. Kevin Prosser figures in as the new starter at DE this fall. He should be in line for a breakout season, as he totaled 5 TFLs as a rotational player last fall. Josiah Hall and Garrett Crall are the backups at DE, while Conner Cain and Ravontae Holt are the backups inside. Javaree Jackson adds additional depth at NT.

Logan Wilson and Cassh Maluia are both returning to start at LB, which is even more good news. Wilson led the tea with 119 tackles last fall, and added 8 TFLs. Maluia totaled 74 tackles, and was good for 3.5 TFLs. With the Cowboys employing a 4-2-5 set, this may be one of the best 2 man LB units you will find in college football. Adam Pilapil is a senior, and will back up one spot after totaling 31 tackles as a reserve last fall. Ryan Gatoloai-Faupula, a sophomore, will back up the other spot.

The secondary returns just 2 starters, but they are 2 starters who each enter their 4th year starting together at the Safety spots in Andrew Wingard (SS) and Marcus Epps (FS). Wingard finished second on the team in tackles with 114, and he totaled 8 TFLs, 3 PBUs, and 2 forced fumbles. Marcus Epps totaled 64 tackles, 5 TFLS, 4 PBUs, and one forced fumble. Wingard led the team with 5 INTs, while Epps finished right behind him with 4. Alijah Halliburton backs up Wingard, while Braden Smith backs up Epps.

The Cowboys have to find new starters at CB and NB. CJ Colden and Antonio Hull are penciled in at CB, while Tyler Hall projects to start at NB. Hall finished with 4 PBUs last season, and is the most experienced of the bunch. Sidney Washington and Keyon Blankenbaker are the backups at CB, while Chavez Pownell is the backup at NB.

Breakdown Special Teams: Cooper Rothe returns at PK, and he is as solid as they get. He hit 15/18 FG attempts last fall, and is one of the best you will find in Mountain West play. He was 36/37 on PATs.

Tim Zaleski returns at Punter, and he led the MWC with punts inside the 20, but overall, he struggled to a 39.18 yards per punt average.

Tyler Hall is the primary KR man, averaging a whopping 33.87 yards per return. He scored twice as well, making him one of the more dangerous return men in the nation. Austin Conway is dangerous on PR duty as well, as he averaged 10.36 yards per return.

Final Analysis: Wyoming is one team that you have to look at as a team that has the potential to do some special things, but they have a lot of individual parts that must come together as a machine to make that happen. They have one of the best defensive units that you will find anywhere in the nation, but the offense, with one of the most hyped QBs in history leading it, struggled to find their own way. The Mountain Division is not full of difficult slates this fall, and Wyoming should have more than enough talent to navigate that path, but here's the thing...you can't lose games to San Jose State, as they did in the season finale on the road last fall. If the Cowboys can upset Boise State, as they did in 2016, the Mountain race could get very interesting, but they have to improve the offense, and win games that they should win.

Monday, July 16, 2018

2018 College Football Team Previews: Western Michigan Broncos

Western Michigan Broncos 2018 Football Preview

Opening Statement: Year one under Tim Lester was a huge letdown from the end of the OJ Fleck era, as WMU finished just 6-6 and was left out of the bowl circuit. Considering the year before, 2017 could not have been much more of a disappointment. We should see some improvement in 2018, as 8 starters return on offense, but the defense could cause some issues, as 4 starters return there. Lester is going to have to find some continuity and balance with the roster soon, or else the program could quickly start to slide in the wrong direction, much as it had been doing prior to Fleck's arrival.

Breakdown Offense: Jon Wassink returns at QB for the Broncos, and if he can stay healthy, that would be a huge net gain this fall. He broke his collarbone against Eastern Michigan in week 8, and the season went completely south from there. He passed for 1391 yards and 14 TDs to 4 INTs, and completed 64.2% of his passes. He added 3 more rushing scores to his totals as well. If he is healthy, things look up. Alex Mussat projects as the primary backup, as Reece Goddard is no longer with the program.

Jarvion Franklin has moved on at RB, leaving a massive hole in offensive productivity. Jamauri Bogan is the starter now after rushing for 589 yards as the backup last fall. He scored 3 times, and averaged 5.26 yards per carry.  LeVante Bellamy will likely end up sharing some carries, and is a serious home run back with an average of 8.04 yards per carry last fall. Davon Tucker should fill out the 3rd back role this fall.

Keishawn Watson, Anton Curtis, and D'Wayne Eskridge all return to start at WR, which should let the Broncos open things up a bit in the passing game. Eskridge caught 30 passes for 506 yards last fall with 3 TDs, and an average of 16.87 yards per catch. Watson caught 41 passes and was good for 7 TDs last fall, while Curtis caught 18 passes. Drake Harris, a grad transfer from Michigan, will likely be used in a variety of ways.

Donnie Ernsberger is gone at TE, so look for Giovanni Ricci to take over there, as Odell Miller fills in as the backup.

The line returns 4 starters, and should be the strength of the offense. Mike Caliendo (LG), John Keenoy (C), Luke Juriga (RG), and Zach Novoselsky (RT) are all back in action. Jaylon Moore, a sophomore, projects to start at LT. Jordan Asbury and Mark Brooks back up at the Guard spots, and Spencer Kanz backs up at Tackle. Alex Keys is the backup at C.

Breakdown Defense: The Broncos return just 3 starters on defense, but 2 are at DE. Antonino Balabani joins Eric Assoua as the bookends. Balabani finished with 7 TFLs last fall, while Assoua totaled 5.5. Ralph Holley and Ken Finley figure in at DT as new starters. Finley, a senior, played in just 3 games last fall. DeShawn Foster and Ali Fayad are the backups at DE, but there is no depth inside.

With the loss of Robert Spillane and Caleb Bailey at LB, the Broncos lose a total of 22 TFLs and 152 tackles. The entire unit must be rebuilt. Drake Spears, Treshaun Hayward, and Alex Grace are all penciled in as new starters. Spears is the most experienced, as he totaled 31 tackles last fall. Again, depth is just not there.

The Broncos expected to have Sam Beal back at CB, but he bolted for the NFL Supplemental Draft, and was chosen by the New York Giants. That leaves just one starter returning in the secondary in FS Stefan Claiborne. He totaled 64 tackles last fall, and totaled 2 PBUs. Emanual Jackson is one new starter at CB, while Obbie Jackson now steps in from the NB spot to take over for Beal is the most likely scenario. Justin Tranquill pencils in as the starter at SS. This is going to be a very raw unit with very little overall depth.

Breakdown Special Teams: Josh Grant returns at PK but struggled last fall in hitting just 15/23 FG attempts. He needs to amp up his game as a sophomore.

Isaac Gerkis takes over on Punts this fall as a freshman.

With Darius Phillips gone, the Broncos face a huge void in the return game on both kicks and punts. Phillips left as the all-time leading career scorer on kicks and punt returns in FBS history.

Final Analysis: I think that year 2 under Lester could end up just as bumpy as year one was. While the offense should rebound with Wassink taking snaps, the defense could ultimately implode. There is so little depth, and such a lack of experience among projected starters, that the coming season borders on scary when you think of how bad it can go with the talent on hand, or lack thereof. Western could still make a push for a middle of the pack finish in the MAC West, but anything better than that is just sticking one's neck out much too far. This could be a wild ride, and not for good reasons.

2018 College Football Team Previews: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 2018 Football Preview

Opening Statement: There is a stark reality at Western Kentucky that the needle is now pointing in the wrong direction. Year one under Mike Sanford resulted in a -5 on the win total column, and he insisted on running a run heavy offense, when his personnel was built for the spread. He had one of the nation's best college QBs in Mike White, and he simply neutered his ability to move the football based on his insistence on running an offense that his roster was not built for. If this continues, all the good that the past few head coaches have done will be undone in a great big hurry.

Breakdown Offense: Drew Eckels finally gets his shot at QB as a senior, but attempted just 11 passes last fall. I am guessing that he understands at this point that he will not run the offense he was recruited to run, but that is largely beside the point. Experience at the position is at a minimum with White having moved on. Steven Duncan is the backup. Kevaris Thompson, the first ever 4 star recruit at WKU, will also have a shot in camp to win the starting job.

The run game, which was supposed to be a Sanford staple, was the worst run game in the nation last fall, averaging just 60.8 yards per game. In retrospect, the run game was much stronger using the spread. D'Andre Ferby returns as the starter, but ran for just 373 yards last fall. Marquez Triggs and Jakairi Moses will try to find some way to get this run game up from rock bottom, but the returns don't look promising right now. Moses mmissed spring football with a knee injury. Joshua Samuel is another name to look for.

The receiver corps is largely in rebuild mode this fall, as not one starter returns. Lucky Jackson, Quin Jernighen, and Jacquez Sloan will all be trying to work their way into the system this fall. Jackson was the leader of this group last season with 39 receptions for 600 yards and 3 scores. The Toppers will lose 4 of their top 7 receivers from last season. Look for Xavier Lane to have some input into playing time. Devin nixon will return as a junior, but caught just one pass last fall.

Mik'Quane Dean is the starter at TE for the Toppers this fall. He caught 11 passes as the backup last season. Kyle Fourtenberry could find himself in the battle to start as well, but either way, he should see plenty of reps after catching 8 passes last season.

The line returns 3 starters, all from C to right. Dennis Edwards (C), Miles Pate (RG), and Cole Spencer (RT) are all back. Parker Howell (LT) and Tyler Witt (LG) figure in as the new starters. Jordan Meredith will push Witt in fall camp. Seth Joest adds depth inside at OG, but depth overall is not incredible.

Breakdown Defense: The line returns 2 starters for WKU in Julien Lewis (DT) and Evan Sayner (DE). The bad news is that this duo combined for just 5.5 TFLs last fall, and that will not get it done again. Carson Jordan is expected to win the open DE spot, while Jeremy Darvin is penciled in at DT. Darvin played in 8 games as a freshman. DeAngelo Malone and Heath Wiggins could both push for starting jobs at DE as well. Jaylon George will back up inside, while Nick Coffey will back up at the DE spot.

Masai Whyte is the lone returning starter at LB. He totaled 63 tackles, but did little to nothing behind the line last fall, with just one TFL. Ben Holt, a junior, is projected to start as well. He totaled 34 tackles and 2.5 TFLs. Der'Quione Mobley will provide some depth, but not much of it, as he totaled 6 tackles last fall, all assists.

The secondary should be solid, as 4 starters return in DeAndre Farris (CB), Ta'Corian Darden (NB), Devon Key (S), and Drell Greene (S). Farris led the team last fall with 13 PBUs, but he finished with just one INT. Darden totaled 6 PBUs last fall and added 71 tackles. Key totaled 94 tackles, and Greene totaled 2 INTs and 74 tackles and 2 PBUs. Roger Cray, a sophomore, figures in at the open CB spot. He played in all 13 games as a freshman last fall. Antwon Kincade figures in as the 3rd corner. Kyle Bailey is the 3rd Safety.

Breakdown Special Teams: Ryan Nuss is back at PK, but he has to do more than he did in 2017, when he hit just 10/16 FG attempts.

Jake Collins is back at Punter as well, and skidded into a 40.14 yards per punt average.

A new KR man must be found in camp, and the PR job is open as well.

Final Analysis: The simple truth is that I am not a fan of what is going on at WKU heading into the season. I am never a fan of a coach coming in and applying his system based on what he wants to do when the personnel that is set up is designed to work in a completely different scheme. It's simply self defeating. Good coaches run a system based on the on hand talent, and can admit that they may have to shelve their wants based on what they have to work with. Sanford did not do that last season, and largely wasted Mike White as a senior, which is borderline criminal. The talent level coming back still does not match what Sanford wants to do, as this same group of backs finished last nationally in rushing. He still does not have the QB he needs to run a rush heavy offense, unless Thomas wins the job. His line is designed for a different style. The defense is not built as well as it was a year ago, either. In short, I would not be shocked to see Western Kentucky slide further still in the CUSA East. The division is not great, and that is their only hope of exceeding these expectations, but a 4th place finish is as good as anyone can hope for.

2018 College Football Team Previews: Washington State Cougars

Washington State Cougars 2018 Football Preview

Opening Statement: One cannot help but be concerned, if you are a Cougar fan, that the window that was open for the Cougs to take the PAC-12 North title at some point, has slammed shut. The Cougars lose a large amount of talent of the roster from last fall, and that could be bad news, especially at the QB spot, where the tragic death of Tyler Helinski leaves a gaping void in both terms of his value as a human being, and as a tremendously valued teammate. That event will likely be a rallying point for the Cougars this season, as many are still trying to come to terms with his passing. The Cougars still have talent, and could still be a dark horse in the North, but any mention of them as a potential favorite has faded.

Breakdown Offense: The QB job is still hotly contested heading into fall camp, as Gardner Minshew, the grad transfer from East Carolina, has not yet arrived. Trey Tinsley and Anthony Gordon, both 4th year juniors, are locked in battle, but Minshew could arrive in August and turn everything upside down. This will be a spot worth watching, as Minshew is the most experienced, by far, in this group in terms of field time.

Jamal Morrow is gone, and he represented a big play threat out of the backfield, even though the Air Raid offense does not depend on the run much. He averaged 6.07 yards per carry, while James Williams, the projected starter this fall, averaged just 4.27 by comparison. Gerard Wicks is also gone, so the next experienced back returning outside of Williams carried the ball just 6 times in Keith Harrington. Harrington is projected as the 3rd back in the group, as Max Borghi, a freshman, has passed him on the depth chart. All 3 of these backs can catch the football, so that will be a plus. Williams caught 71 passes last fall at RB.

Kyle Sweet (Y WR) and Renard Bell (H WR) both return as starters. Sweet caught 58 passes for 533 yards and 2 scores, while Bell caught 40 passes for 538 yards and 3 TDs. Tay Martin steps in at the X spot, and caught 31 passes as a backup last fall, while Dezmon Patmon caught 35 passes, and will be the Z WR. Martin finished 2nd on the team with 6 TD receptions as a backup. Rodrick Fisher backs up Martin, while Brandon Arconado is the backup to Bell at the H. Jamire Calvin backs up at Y and Easop Winston is the backup at Z. There is another influx of young talent coming in above this in August, and the Cougars have what is likely the deepest corps of receivers in college football.

The line may be in a bit of flux, as only 2 starters are back in Andre Dillard (LT) and Frederick Mauigoa (C). Josh Watson is penciled in at LG, while Robert Valencia (RG) and freshman Abraham Lucas (RT) are also projected as starters. Liam Ryan adds depth at the OT spots, while Christian Haangana and Noah Osur-Myers add depth at Guard. Brian Greens is the backup at C heading into fall camp. Valencia could kick out and back up at RT as well.

Breakdown Defense: The Cougars had their best overall defense in the Mike Leach era, and have added an element of fierceness on that side of the football the Air Raid teams never seem to have. The Cougs finished 18th nationally in total defense last season, and ranked 9th against the pass.

Nnamdi Oguayo is the lone returning starter on the line at DE. He totaled 7 TFLs last fall and added 4 sacks, and will be the leader up front. He should be joined by Taylor Comfort at NT, and Nick Begg at DT. Both are seniors and are experienced. Will Rogers III is the backup at DE, while Pono Lolohea is the backup at NT. Logan Tago backs up at DT, and is the 3rd senior in this unit.

The Cougars got great news at LB, where Peyton Pelluer received a 6th year of eligibility after breaking his foot last season, which broke a streak of 34 straight starts for him. He totaled 21 tackles in just 3 games before going down last fall. He should be the leader in the middle of the defense this fall. Jahad Woods returns at WLB as a starter from last fall as well, and he totaled 64 tackles, 11 TFLs, and 2.5 sacks. Chima Onyeukwu is the starter at the RUSH spot. He totaled just 4 tackles as a junior last season. There is plenty of depth in this unit, as Justis Rogers and Kendrick Catis are both good enough to start now. Dillon Sherman backs up at MIKE, while Rogers backs up Woods at WLB. Tristan Brock will back up at the RUSH spot, and the staff recruited this position very well, with some serious talent getting ready to walk on campus next month.

There is some solid experience returning in the secondary. Darrian Molton (CB), Hunter Dale (NB), and Jalen Thompson (S) all return. Molton played in 11 games last fall, and needs to crank it up a bit, as he finished with just one PBUs last fall. He totaled 37 tackles. Dale finished with 4 PBUs, 3 QB hurries, and a forced fumble, and added 46 tackles and an INT. Thompson led the Cougs with 4 INTs, 73 tackles, and totaled 2 PBUs. He also added another 5.5 TFLs to the mix. Sean Harper (CB) and Skyler Thomas (S) are projected as the new starters. Isaiah Love is the backup at NB, while Marcus Strong and George Hicks III are the backups at CB. Dylan Axelson and Deion Singleton are the backups at the Safety spots.

Breakdown Special Teams: Erik Powell is gone at PK after hitting 20/24 FG attempts last season. Jack Crane, a sophomore, is slated to take over the job.

Oscar Draguicevich, a sophomore transfer from Incarnate Word (FCS), averaged 42 yards per punt as a freshman at ICU.

The KR job appears open, as Renard Bell did nothing last fall to hold it down heading into this season. The PR job is open as well.

Final Analysis: There is plenty of talent returning for the Cougars in 2018, but there are plenty of questions as well on offense, namely the QB position and the line, and depth at RB is not great. The defense, however, even though they have some holes of their own, could carry the day at times for this team this fall, and has plenty of talent and depth returning. While I felt that the Cougars could have made a push for the North title the last 2 seasons, I would hesitate to say that this fall, but the Cougars could have a say in that race, and I can still stamp the title of dark horse right on them. Leach is one of the best coaches in the nation, and he gets plenty from what he has on tap. This could be a team to watch, especially if Minshew shows up and takes off like a rocket in fall camp.