Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 2018 Football Preview
Opening Statement: There is a stark reality at Western Kentucky that the needle is now pointing in the wrong direction. Year one under Mike Sanford resulted in a -5 on the win total column, and he insisted on running a run heavy offense, when his personnel was built for the spread. He had one of the nation's best college QBs in Mike White, and he simply neutered his ability to move the football based on his insistence on running an offense that his roster was not built for. If this continues, all the good that the past few head coaches have done will be undone in a great big hurry.
Breakdown Offense: Drew Eckels finally gets his shot at QB as a senior, but attempted just 11 passes last fall. I am guessing that he understands at this point that he will not run the offense he was recruited to run, but that is largely beside the point. Experience at the position is at a minimum with White having moved on. Steven Duncan is the backup. Kevaris Thompson, the first ever 4 star recruit at WKU, will also have a shot in camp to win the starting job.
The run game, which was supposed to be a Sanford staple, was the worst run game in the nation last fall, averaging just 60.8 yards per game. In retrospect, the run game was much stronger using the spread. D'Andre Ferby returns as the starter, but ran for just 373 yards last fall. Marquez Triggs and Jakairi Moses will try to find some way to get this run game up from rock bottom, but the returns don't look promising right now. Moses mmissed spring football with a knee injury. Joshua Samuel is another name to look for.
The receiver corps is largely in rebuild mode this fall, as not one starter returns. Lucky Jackson, Quin Jernighen, and Jacquez Sloan will all be trying to work their way into the system this fall. Jackson was the leader of this group last season with 39 receptions for 600 yards and 3 scores. The Toppers will lose 4 of their top 7 receivers from last season. Look for Xavier Lane to have some input into playing time. Devin nixon will return as a junior, but caught just one pass last fall.
Mik'Quane Dean is the starter at TE for the Toppers this fall. He caught 11 passes as the backup last season. Kyle Fourtenberry could find himself in the battle to start as well, but either way, he should see plenty of reps after catching 8 passes last season.
The line returns 3 starters, all from C to right. Dennis Edwards (C), Miles Pate (RG), and Cole Spencer (RT) are all back. Parker Howell (LT) and Tyler Witt (LG) figure in as the new starters. Jordan Meredith will push Witt in fall camp. Seth Joest adds depth inside at OG, but depth overall is not incredible.
Breakdown Defense: The line returns 2 starters for WKU in Julien Lewis (DT) and Evan Sayner (DE). The bad news is that this duo combined for just 5.5 TFLs last fall, and that will not get it done again. Carson Jordan is expected to win the open DE spot, while Jeremy Darvin is penciled in at DT. Darvin played in 8 games as a freshman. DeAngelo Malone and Heath Wiggins could both push for starting jobs at DE as well. Jaylon George will back up inside, while Nick Coffey will back up at the DE spot.
Masai Whyte is the lone returning starter at LB. He totaled 63 tackles, but did little to nothing behind the line last fall, with just one TFL. Ben Holt, a junior, is projected to start as well. He totaled 34 tackles and 2.5 TFLs. Der'Quione Mobley will provide some depth, but not much of it, as he totaled 6 tackles last fall, all assists.
The secondary should be solid, as 4 starters return in DeAndre Farris (CB), Ta'Corian Darden (NB), Devon Key (S), and Drell Greene (S). Farris led the team last fall with 13 PBUs, but he finished with just one INT. Darden totaled 6 PBUs last fall and added 71 tackles. Key totaled 94 tackles, and Greene totaled 2 INTs and 74 tackles and 2 PBUs. Roger Cray, a sophomore, figures in at the open CB spot. He played in all 13 games as a freshman last fall. Antwon Kincade figures in as the 3rd corner. Kyle Bailey is the 3rd Safety.
Breakdown Special Teams: Ryan Nuss is back at PK, but he has to do more than he did in 2017, when he hit just 10/16 FG attempts.
Jake Collins is back at Punter as well, and skidded into a 40.14 yards per punt average.
A new KR man must be found in camp, and the PR job is open as well.
Final Analysis: The simple truth is that I am not a fan of what is going on at WKU heading into the season. I am never a fan of a coach coming in and applying his system based on what he wants to do when the personnel that is set up is designed to work in a completely different scheme. It's simply self defeating. Good coaches run a system based on the on hand talent, and can admit that they may have to shelve their wants based on what they have to work with. Sanford did not do that last season, and largely wasted Mike White as a senior, which is borderline criminal. The talent level coming back still does not match what Sanford wants to do, as this same group of backs finished last nationally in rushing. He still does not have the QB he needs to run a rush heavy offense, unless Thomas wins the job. His line is designed for a different style. The defense is not built as well as it was a year ago, either. In short, I would not be shocked to see Western Kentucky slide further still in the CUSA East. The division is not great, and that is their only hope of exceeding these expectations, but a 4th place finish is as good as anyone can hope for.
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