The Big Sky is nothing if not ever changing when it comes to the hierarchy of the conference in recent years. Weber State and Southern Utah overachieved last season, with Weber State ending up as co-champs. North Dakota, Eastern Washington, and Cal Poly all fell well short of projections last fall, and are trying to bounce back, while Idaho returns from the FBS ranks to their former home. Here is how we see the Big Sky breaking down in 2018:
1. Weber State
The Wildcats are trying to make a 3rd consecutive trip to the FCS (1-AA) playoff s for the first time in school history, and are coming off a co-championship season in Big Sky play. Coach Jay Hill has this program running in the right direction. Weber State returns 5 all-conference selections, and finished last fall ranked 5th nationally. The goal this fall is to move past the quaterfinals, and break out in the round of 4. Weber State finished last fall with the best special teams unit in the nation, and had the best defense in the conference. That all bodes well for the Wildcats to win the outright league title. The schedule is difficult, so repeating 11 wins may be tough, but as far as returning talent is concerned, the Wildcats are best suited to weather the storm in the Big Sky.
2. Eastern Washington
The Eagles fell well short of where we thought they would be a year ago. With Gage Gubrud returning at QB, and Antoine Custer, Jr. back at RB, the offense should be fully charged to get EWU back into the playoffs, which they missed out on last season. It was just the 2nd time in 22 years that the Eagles fell short of a playoff bid. 17 total starters return this fall, making this team the squad that could push Weber State out of the way at the top.
3. Northern Arizona
The Lumberjacks return QB Case Cookus, who passed for 3413 yards last fall, and may have saved the job of coach Jerome Souers, whowas all set to be fired at the end of the season. Souers is back as well, as is WR Emmanuel BUtler, who missed most of last season, but has 2541 yards receiving for his career. The run game is solid, and the defense is deep. NAU could push forward into a top 2 finish with some extra bounces.
4. Montana
Gone is Bob Stitt, probably before his time, and back in is former coach Bobby Hauck, one of the best coaches in school history. Hauck fell well short as a head coach at UNLV, and has been kicking around the staff at San Diego State, and when the bell rang, he returned to open arms. Montana has struggled a bit in recent seasons, and getting back to the playoffs will be goal number one. Gresch Jensen returns at QB after surprising as a freshman last fall, and the offense should click. Getting sustained pressure up front on defense will be key.
5. Idaho
The Vandals return after more than 2 decades away from the Big Sky. Paul Petrino is back as head coach, but he loses most of his skill players on offense. The defensive side of the football is relatively stable and set, and they may have to carry the team for a bit. The Vandals travel to both Fresno State and Florida out of conference, so this could be a bumpy ride.
6. Southern Utah
The Thunderbirds shocked everyone by winning 9 games and tying for the league title, but they won't be able to sneak up on any one this fall. Demario Warren received a contract extension after last season through 2022, which will stabilize the top of the program, but the defense got shredded with losses from last fall. The run game should be decent, and there is some talent at receiver returning, but finding someone to throw the ball will be paramount. Stopping people will be difficult, however, and I can see SUU falling back to where they should have been last year.
7. Sacramento State
The Hornets are projected all over the place, anywhere from 4th to 8th, coming back in 2018. Jody Sears was named coach of the year in the conference last fall after driving the Hornets to 7 wins, but they still fell just short of a playoff birth, even with a 6-2 record in Big Sky play. Kevin Thompson is back at QB, and Bryant Perkinson leads a rock solid rushing attack, but can the defense slow people down? That's a solid question.
8. Montana State
The Bobcats get Chris Murray back at QB, and he is a huge run threat after rushing for 1124 yards last fall. The line returns 4 starters, which should help the run game to keep moving along. The main issue will be finding play makers on defense, which they struggled to do last fall. The good news is that the Bobcats are coming off of a win against Montana.
9. UC Davis
The Aggies get back star receiver Keelan Doss, and coach Dan Hawkins made waves by winning 5 games last fall for a program that has long struggled since moving up to FCS football. Jake Meier returns at QB after passing for 3669 yards, but the defense could use a boost. It's all about the long term plan, and the Aggies are moving in the right direction.
10. Cal Poly
The Mustangs fell hard in 2017, and are still not in a position to make much of a rebound this season. I, along with many others, had projected this team as a playoff candidate last season. but they never got off the ground. Losing FB Joe Protheroe killed the Mustangs last fall, but losing one FB in a triple option offense should not have had that effect. There are some key roster issues here that need fixing in a hurry.
11. Northern Colorado
There are decent pieces on both sides of the football for the Bears, but there is not enough roster cohesion to win big for Earnest Collins. UNC is coming off of a 3 win season, and they may be lucky to get back tot hat again this fall. WR Alex Wesley leads the offense, while Keifer Morris is the leader on defense at DE after recording 9 sacks.
12. Idaho State
There is plenty of talent on the offensive side, as the Bengals are led by 3 year starter Tanner Gueller, but there is not nearly as much talent defensively, and that could be a problem as the Bengals try to build with coach Rob Phenicie. They won 4 games last fall after back to back 2 win seasons, so there is progress.
13. Portland State
The Vikings were undone by a brutal schedule last fall, but at this point, this program is merely trying to learn how not to lose, and that is a tough task. Look for the Vikings to rely on their ground game on offense, but finding overall play makers on either side of the football will be key in fall camp.
Note: North Dakota has moved on to the Missouri Valley Conference, and was replaced this year by Idaho.
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