Week 5 FCS Picks

Here are my week 5 winners for all FCS games:

Colgate over Georgetown
Charleston Southern over Charlotte
Jacksonville over Butler
Lehigh over Monmouth
North Carolina A&T over Howard
San Diego over Marist
Fordham over Holy Cross
VMI over Mercer
South Carolina State over Hampton
Villanova over Penn
Indiana State over Liberty
Western Carolina over Furman
Montana over Northern Colorado
Norfolk State over Morgan State
Central Arkansas over Nicholls State
James Madison over Delaware
Central Connecticut State over Rhode Island
St. Francis over UV-Lynchburg
Bethune-Cookman over Florida Tech
Sacramento State over Idaho State
Montana State over North Dakota
Northern Iowa over Tennessee Tech
Prairie View over Grambling
Southern over Alcorn State
Alabama A&M over Mississippi Valley State
Albany over Columbia
Cornell over Bucknell
New Hampshire over Dartmouth
Harvard over Brown
Campbell over Valporaiso
Alabama State over Texas Southern
William & Mary over Stony Brook
Princeton over Davidson
Lafayette over Wagner
Citadel over Gardner-Webb
Delaware State over Savannah State
Northern Arizona over Cal Poly
Southern Illinois over Western Illinois
Tennessee State over Florida A&M
UT-Martin over SE Missouri State
Jackson State over UA-Pine Bluff
Maine over Towson
Chattanooga over Samford
Jacksonville State over Murray State
Coastal Carolina over Elon
McNeese State over Arkansas Tech
Wofford over UV-Wise
SE Louisiana over Incarnate Word
Illinois State over Austin Peay
Sam Houston State over Lamar
Abilene Christian over Houston Baptist
Southern Utah over Weber State
Eastern Washington over UC-Davis

College Football 2014: Week 5 Story Lines and Picks

Here are the best story lines heading into week five of this 2014 season. Once again, we are left with a largely lackluster slate of games, especially during the first half of the day Saturday, where there may only be two games worth watching. Thursday night's UCLA-Arizona State is an intriguing early PAC-12 match, but there may not be many heavy hitting games played. Let's look at the best of the bunch:

UCLA at Arizona State (Thursday)
Taylor Kelly is out at QB against the Bruins, but you can bet your last buck that Brett Hundley will start for the Bruins after recovering from his elbow injury two weeks ago at Texas. ASU knocked the Bruins off of their South perch last fall, and the Bruins are looking to return the favor in the desert. UCLA has historically played well at ASU, and heads in as the favorite this week.
My Pick: UCLA

Middle Tennessee at Old Dominion (Friday)
MTSU has been up and down in the first month, which is hardly unusual for the Blue Raiders. What is surprising is the early run that ODU has made in their first season in CUSA play. The Monarchs opened conference play with a win over Rice, and a home win here has them 2-0 in conference play and in the early driver's seat.
My Pick: Old Dominion

Tennessee at Georgia
The Vols would certainly love to get between the hedges and upset the Bulldogs, which would strangely place the Vols in the early perch position in the SEC East. The Bulldogs are likely going to have something to say about that, and should bounce back from their loss to South Carolina in conference play behind their power run game.
My Pick: Georgia

Maryland at Indiana
Not a marquee game on name alone, but this game has some early indicators that will be presented when it is over. Maryland has largely been playing better than most people expected, and Indiana has been up and down, losing to Bowling Green before beating Missouri last week. Whomever wins may get a pretender tag temporarily removed.
My Pick: Maryland

Minnesota at Michigan
Mentioned only for the sake that this will be yet another high pressure game for Brady Hoke. Most media folk have Brady already fired at Michigan, but the Wolverines can control the tempo this week. Minnesota has been winning, but has done so rather flatly. The Wolverines will likely bench Devin Gardner at QB, a smart move.
My Pick: Michigan

Florida State at NC State
Jameis Winston returns at QB, like it or not, but the shit storm that is him will follow FSU into Raleigh, a place which has been a thorn in their ass for some time now. The Wolf Pack is 4-0, but albeit against week competition overall. They will likely get up for this game, and that could mean trouble for the distracted Seminoles.
My Pick: NC State (Upset Alert!)

 Arkansas at Texas A&M
The Razorbacks have been majorly improved, but Texas A&M has not fallen off the grid minus Johnny Football. Kenny Hill has done an outstanding job at QB for the Aggies, and they will probably prevail here this week, but they cannot afford to overlook Arkansas anymore.
My Pick: Texas A&M

Stanford at Washington
Sure Stanford has slipped some in 2014, but didn't I tell you they would? Washington is trying to put on their big boy pants at 4-0, and show Stanford that they are the runner up to Oregon in the North, but Stanford is still good enough defensively to ruin the Huskies' day.
I Pick: Stanford

Cincinnati at Ohio State
The Bearcats are riding high after two wins, but struggled against lowly Miami (Ohio), a traditional rival of theirs. The Buckeyes need to show who owns the state, but Cincinnati won't lay down just because. If Ohio State plays less than their best, as they did against Virginia Tech, the Bearcats could lay an upset trap.
My Pick: Ohio State

Missouri at South Carolina
The Tigers and Gamecocks took it down to the wire in Columbia in 2013, and it should be another fight to the end. The Gamecocks are coming in emotional after their win against Georgia, while Missouri is reeling after losing to Indiana. Who knows who will show up Saturday night in Columbia, South Carolina?
My Pick: South Carolina

Duke at Miami
The Blue Devils were my surprise pick in the ACC for a ten win season. Miami is reeling, and the mob is outside with torches and pitchforks demanding Al Golden's firing after the loss at Nebraska dropped Miami to 2-2. Duke has something to prove, and Miami is playing scared. This is a must win game for Miami, but will they get it?
My Pick: Duke

Memphis at Ole Miss
who would've thought that this would be one to watch. The Tigers are a vastly improved football team, and the Rebels are one of the ten best football teams in the country right now. That being said, there is always a trip up game for the Rebels waiting, and this could be it.
My Pick: Ole Miss

Washington State at Utah
Utah is 3-0 after beating Michigan in Ann Arbor, but how strong are the Utes really? Based on early readings of my new QWPI (Quality Win Performance Index), Utah is ranked 15th in the nation. Washington State gave Oregon all they could handle late Saturday night, but do they have enough in the tank to take the Utes down?
My Pick: Utah

Oregon State at USC
Oregon State is playing good football right now, and USC, well, isn't. The Trojans were embarrassed by Boston College on the road, and Oregon State has a history of causing problems for the Trojans. OSU is traveling, and USC is good and pissed. Should be a fun night.
My Pick: Oregon State (Upset Alert!)

Ten Picks Against the Spread

UCLA -3 Arizona State
Fresno State -3 New Mexico
Boston College -2.5 Colorado State
TCU -27.5 SMU
Notre Dame -13 Syracuse
Stanford -4.5 Washington
Duke +5.5 Miami
NC State +27.5 Florida State
UL-Monroe 5.5 Troy
Nevada -1 San Jose State

2014 FBS PRS Rankings: Week 4

Sunday, September 21, 2014
Rank	Points	Team	Record	Score	Opponent
1	992	Oklahoma	3-0	W, 45-33	Def. West Virginia 45-33
2	964	Mississippi State	3-0	W, 34-29	Def. Louisiana State 34-29
3	930	Alabama	3-0	W, 42-21	Def. Florida 42-21
4	925	Brigham Young	3-0	W, 41-33	Def. Virginia 41-33
5	877	Arizona	3-0	W, 49-45	Def. California 49-45
6	872	Texas A&M	3-0	W, 58-6	Def. Southern Methodist 58-6
7	852	Penn State	3-0	W, 48-7	Def. Massachusetts 48-7
8	801	Marshall	3-0	W, 48-17	Def. Akron 48-17
9	783	Mississippi	3-0		Bye
10	752	Nebraska	3-0	W, 41-31	Def. Miami (FL) 41-31
11	750	Duke	3-0	W, 47-13	Def. Tulane 47-13
12	741	Oregon	3-0	W, 38-31	Def. Washington State 38-31
13	706	North Carolina State	3-0	W, 42-0	Def. Presbyterian 42-0
14T	700	Georgia Tech	3-0	W, 27-24	Def. Virginia Tech 27-24
14T	700	Auburn	2-0	W, 20-14	Def. Kansas State 20-14
16	687	Notre Dame	3-0		Bye
17	670	Washington	3-0	W, 45-14	Def. Georgia State 45-14
18	658	UCLA	3-0		Bye
19	609	Baylor	3-0		Bye
20	576	Arizona State	3-0		Bye
21	525	Utah	2-0	W, 26-10	Def. Michigan 26-10
22	505	Boise State	2-1	W, 34-9	Def. Louisiana-Lafayette 34-9
23	460	Oregon State	2-0	W, 28-7	Def. San Diego State 28-7
24	450	South Carolina	2-1	W, 48-34	Def. Vanderbilt 48-34
25	447	Florida State	2-0	W, 23-17 OT	Def. Clemson 23-17 OT
26	423	Arkansas	2-1	W, 52-14	Def. Northern Illinois 52-14
27	420	Cincinnati	1-0	W, 31-24	Def. Miami (OH) 31-24
28	392	East Carolina	2-1	W, 70-41	Def. North Carolina 70-41
29	383	Georgia	1-1	W, 66-0	Def. Troy 66-0
30	378	Louisville	2-1	W, 34-3	Def. Florida International 34-3
31	377	Pittsburgh	3-0	L, 24-20	Lost to Iowa 24-20
32	371	Northern Illinois	3-0	L, 52-14	Lost to Arkansas 52-14
33	358	Maryland	2-1	W, 34-20	Def. Syracuse 34-20
34	340	Ohio State	2-1		Bye
35	333	Missouri	3-0	L, 31-27	Lost to Indiana 31-27
36	332	Southern California	2-1		Bye
37	324	Louisiana State	3-0	L, 34-29	Lost to Mississippi State 34-29
38	322	Florida	2-0	L, 42-21	Lost to Alabama 42-21
39	314	Old Dominion	2-1	W, 45-42	Def. Rice 45-42
40	302	Rutgers	2-1	W, 31-24	Def. Navy 31-24
41	270	Texas-El Paso	2-1		Bye
42	266	Boston College	2-1	W, 40-10	Def. Maine 40-10
43T	254	Illinois	2-1	W, 42-35	Def. Texas State 42-35
43T	254	Tennessee	2-1		Bye
45	243	Minnesota	2-1	W, 24-7	Def. San Jose State 24-7
46	237	Texas Christian	2-0		Bye
47	221	Iowa	2-1	W, 24-20	Def. Pittsburgh 24-20
48	188	Louisiana-Monroe	2-1		Bye
49	178	Michigan State	1-1	W, 73-14	Def. Eastern Michigan 73-14
50	177	Wyoming	2-1	W, 20-19	Def. Florida Atlantic 20-19
51	173	Wisconsin	1-1	W, 68-17	Def. Bowling Green State 68-17
52	170	California	2-0	L, 49-45	Lost to Arizona 49-45
53	163	Western Michigan	1-1	W, 45-14	Def. Murray State 45-14
54	146	Memphis	1-1	W, 36-17	Def. Middle Tennessee State 36-17
55	145	Air Force	2-1		Bye
56	143	Temple	1-1	W, 59-0	Def. Delaware State 59-0
57	142	Indiana	1-1	W, 31-27	Def. Missouri 31-27
58T	134	Alabama-Birmingham	2-1		Bye
58T	134	Colorado State	2-1		Bye
60	115	Oklahoma State	2-1		Bye
61	106	Kentucky	2-1		Bye
62	104	Navy	2-1	L, 31-24	Lost to Rutgers 31-24
63	97	Louisiana Tech	2-1	L, 30-27	Lost to Northwestern State 30-27
64	88	Ohio	1-2	W, 36-24	Def. Idaho 36-24
65	87	Colorado	1-2	W, 21-12	Def. Hawaii 21-12
66	84	Syracuse	2-0	L, 34-20	Lost to Maryland 34-20
67	83	Kansas State	2-0	L, 20-14	Lost to Auburn 20-14
68	80	Georgia Southern	1-2	W, 28-6	Def. South Alabama 28-6
69	74	North Carolina	2-0	L, 70-41	Lost to East Carolina 70-41
70	72	Stanford	2-1		Bye
71	65	Nevada	2-1		Bye
72	61	Michigan	2-1	L, 26-10	Lost to Utah 26-10
73	48	Texas Tech	2-1		Bye
74	9	Kansas	1-1	W, 24-10	Def. Central Michigan 24-10
75	7	Western Kentucky	1-2		Bye
76	-19	West Virginia	2-1	L, 45-33	Lost to Oklahoma 45-33
77	-32	Middle Tennessee State	2-1	L, 36-17	Lost to Memphis 36-17
78	-38	Miami (FL)	2-1	L, 41-31	Lost to Nebraska 41-31
79	-57	New Mexico State	2-1	L, 38-35	Lost to New Mexico 38-35
80	-69	Houston	1-2	W, 47-14	Def. Nevada-Las Vegas 47-14
81	-70	North Texas	1-2	W, 77-3	Def. Nicholls State 77-3
82	-91	Virginia Tech	2-1	L, 27-24	Lost to Georgia Tech 27-24
83T	-92	Wake Forest	1-2	W, 24-21	Def. Army 24-21
83T	-92	Arkansas State	1-2	W, 21-14 OT	Def. Utah State 21-14 OT
83T	-92	Bowling Green State	2-1	L, 68-17	Lost to Wisconsin 68-17
86	-99	Utah State	2-1	L, 21-14 OT	Lost to Arkansas State 21-14 OT
87	-100	UTSA	1-2		Bye
88	-106	Virginia	2-1	L, 41-33	Lost to Brigham Young 41-33
89T	-112	Toledo	1-2	W, 34-23	Def. Ball State 34-23
89T	-112	Army	1-1	L, 24-21	Lost to Wake Forest 24-21
91	-125	Central Michigan	2-1	L, 24-10	Lost to Kansas 24-10
92	-132	Purdue	1-2	W, 35-13	Def. Southern Illinois 35-13
93	-144	Texas	1-2		Bye
94	-154	New Mexico	0-2	W, 38-35	Def. New Mexico State 38-35
95	-199	Southern Mississippi	1-2	W, 21-20	Def. Appalachian State 21-20
96	-201	Tulsa	1-2		Bye
97	-212	South Alabama	1-1	L, 28-6	Lost to Georgia Southern 28-6
98	-226	Clemson	1-2	L, 23-17 OT	Lost to Florida State 23-17 OT
99	-230	South Florida	1-2	W, 17-14	Def. Connecticut 17-14
100	-239	Appalachian State	1-1	L, 21-20	Lost to Southern Mississippi 21-20
101	-250	Texas State	1-1	L, 42-35	Lost to Illinois 42-35
102	-259	Iowa State	1-2		Bye
103	-260	San Diego State	1-1	L, 28-7	Lost to Oregon State 28-7
104	-262	Central Florida	0-2	W, 41-7	Def. Bethune-Cookman 41-7
105	-285	Florida Atlantic	1-2	L, 20-19	Lost to Wyoming 20-19
106	-301	Buffalo	1-2	W, 36-7	Def. Norfolk State 36-7
107	-311	San Jose State	1-1	L, 24-7	Lost to Minnesota 24-7
108	-338	Akron	1-1	L, 48-17	Lost to Marshall 48-17
109	-359	Northwestern	0-2	W, 24-7	Def. Western Illinois 24-7
110	-401	Washington State	1-2	L, 38-31	Lost to Oregon 38-31
111	-443	Idaho	0-2	L, 36-24	Lost to Ohio 36-24
112	-451	Vanderbilt	1-2	L, 48-34	Lost to South Carolina 48-34
113	-478	Tulane	1-2	L, 47-13	Lost to Duke 47-13
114	-493	Rice	0-2	L, 45-42	Lost to Old Dominion 45-42
115	-507	Hawaii	1-2	L, 21-12	Lost to Colorado 21-12
116	-508	Fresno State	0-3	W, 56-16	Def. Southern Utah 56-16
117	-510	Georgia State	1-2	L, 45-14	Lost to Washington 45-14
118	-511	Louisiana-Lafayette	1-2	L, 34-9	Lost to Boise State 34-9
119	-530	Nevada-Las Vegas	1-2	L, 47-14	Lost to Houston 47-14
120	-546	Ball State	1-2	L, 34-23	Lost to Toledo 34-23
121	-547	Connecticut	1-2	L, 17-14	Lost to South Florida 17-14
122	-568	Eastern Michigan	1-2	L, 73-14	Lost to Michigan State 73-14
123	-602	Kent State	0-3		Bye
124	-622	Southern Methodist	0-2	L, 58-6	Lost to Texas A&M 58-6
125	-679	Florida International	1-2	L, 34-3	Lost to Louisville 34-3
126	-687	Massachusetts	0-3	L, 48-7	Lost to Penn State 48-7
127	-782	Miami (OH)	0-3	L, 31-24	Lost to Cincinnati 31-24
128	-862	Troy	0-3	L, 66-0	Lost to Georgia 66-0