Texas Longhorns 2018 Football Preview
Opening Statement: Expectations at Texas are never for 6 or 7 win seasons, and that is exactly what the Longhorn faithful got in year one under Tom Herman and staff at Texas in 2017. Certainly, losing to a Texas Tech team on the skids in the regular season finale could not have sit too well either. Texas had 4 losses of 4 points or less last fall, and finished ranked 95th in the nation in rushing. Historically, when Texas fails to run the football with consistency and dominance, they lose. Can the Longhorns patch up the lackluster rushing attack, and patch up a pass defense that ranked 109th, all while trying to become relevant again in the Big 12 race?
Breakdown Offense: Sam Ehlinger likely becomes the starting QB in fall camp, but that decision never came to fruition in spring camp, with Shane Buechele hanging on for dear life in a two man battle. Buechele cannot stay healthy for an entire season, but Ehlinger cannot pass with enough consistency and accuracy, and the best you can hope for is him not making game changing mistakes with the football. This duo managed to toss 11 INTs last fall, against just 18 TDs. I expect to see both in action at points again this fall.
The run game was a mess, and injuries on the line and at TE did not help. Daniel Young projects as the starter at RB, but he rushed for just 373 yards last fall. Texas needs to find a front line back that can carry the load, because having Ehlinger as the leading rusher is not going to get it done again. Toneil Carter, Kyle Porter, and Tristian Houston all return, but someone has got to step up and be a star, and they may not have that guy on the roster.
Collin Johnson and Lil'Jordan Humphery both return as starters at WR this fall, while Devin Duverney tries to take the open 3rd receiver spot. Johnson caught 54 passes for 765 yards, but scored just 2 times on the year. Humphery caught 37 passes for 431 yards, but he also struggled to score, as he found the end zone just once. Duvernay caught just 9 passes last fall. Joerrod Heard likely pushes into the starting lineup in camp, and could push Humphery to 2nd team status. John Burt and and Jordan Puncey could also be looking for serious reps in camp as well.
Andrew Beck returns from injury, and will likely start at TE. Freshman Reese Leitao could move into the 2nd TE spot, while Cade Brewer brings in another young player for the role that saw some work last fall.
Only 2 starters return on the line in Patrick Vahe (LG) and Zach Shackleford (C). Calvin Anderson was one of the top transfer targets in the nation, and fills in a need at LT after moving over from Rice. Elijah Rodriguez (RG) and Derek Kerstetter (RT) are penciled on on the right side. Mikey Grandy could be pushing for the job at RG in camp. Depth is a mixed bag across the unit, especially at C, where the position is thin.
Breakdown Defense: The defense was strong against the run, as they ranked 8th nationally, allowing just 106.8 yards per game. The good news on that front is that 2 starters are back on the line in DE Charles Omenibu and NT Chris Nelson. They combined for 10 TFLs last fall, and should provide some solid play to replace Poona Ford, who moved on the the NFL. Breckyn Hager is the starter at the open DE spot, and totaled 9 TFLs last fall. Jamari Chisholm and Ta'Quon Graham add depth at the DE spots, while Gerald Wilbon backs up inside.
There is plenty of skill returning at LB this fall, as the unit is led by the return of Gary Johnson at ROV. Johnson finished with 60 tackles last season, and totaled 6 TFLs. Anthony Wheeler also returns to start after totaling 47 tackles. Replacing Malik Jefferson will be a huge task, and that falls to Malcolm Roach, who totaled 37 tackles off the bench. Jeffrey McCulloch and Edwin Freeman will be the backups outside, while Ayodele Adeoye backs up in the middle spot.
The secondary was torched last season, allowing 258.8 yards passing per game. The unit finished 108th in passing yards allowed per game. PJ Locke III is back at CB after totaling just 2 PBUs last fall, while Brandon Jones returns at Safety. Jones finished with 61 tackles, but is also limited in pass coverage. Davante Davis works out at CB for now, as he finished with 3 PBUs in 10 games last fall, while Chris Brown is penciled in at the open Safety spot. Anthony Cook and Eric Cuffee are the backups at CB, but neither has much experience. Caden Sterns is a freshman, and will back up one Safety spot, while another freshman, BJ Foster, is the backup at the other.
Breakdown Special Teams: Can Joshua Rowland get his confidence back at PK? That is a huge question, as he hit just 11/18 FG attempts last season, and visibly started to doubt himself. There were 3 kickers in spring camp, and it may be best if one of them was ready to make a push for the job.
Ryan Bujcevski is the likely punter as a freshman this season after the loss of All World Punter Michael Dickson to the NFL. His will be massive shoes to fill.
Kris Boyd and Kyle Porter return on KR duties, and both are dangerous options for opponents to kick to. A new PR man needs to be identified in camp, as Reggie Hemphill-Mapps did not return to Texas after his freshman season, and enrolled at Trinity Valley CC.
Final Analysis: The Longhorns are in for another tough slog this fall, as 3 of their first 4 games are against Maryland on the road, who should be very much improved over last fall, and then USC and TCU in weeks 3 and 4. If they can survive the first 4 weeks with a split, that would be fortunate. That first month will set the tone moving forward, but the hype over Tom Herman, thus far, has not amounted to a ton between Houston and Texas. It will be a free pass year once again, but 2019 will really tell the tale.
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