Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Pre-Bowl FBS PRS Rankings

With most regular season and conference championship games now completely in the books (Army plays Navy Saturday), we present our final pre-bowl FBS PRS Rankings.

There are some surprises in the rankings this week. It would seem that our formula has found an interesting turn of events in that we failed to show a final top two that matched the BCS. of course, we never do. To show how our system does not engage personal votes or human interference other than plugging in equations, our final top two pre-bowl teams in the country ended up being Florida State and Ohio State, despite Ohio State losing the Big 10 title game against Michigan State last Saturday.

Our system has always set out to show that the BCS system was inherently flawed, and teams that lost a late season game were penalized (circa UCLA's loss to Miami in 1999), while teams that had lost early games were still rewarded (Florida State that same season, amongst many others, including Alabama and LSU).

This season it came into play with Auburn having lost early in the season, and Ohio State losing late. Don't get me wrong...We actually are happy with Auburn and Florida State in the BCS final this season. There is nothing wrong with how the season ended up, despite the topsy turvy final weeks when it seemed that nobody wanted to take the number two spot and keep it.

When you look at our rankings, most of the numbers seemed to solidify in the final few weeks, and with so many teams losing late season games, leaving a collection of 9 teams with one loss this week, there was little room for separation heading into the bowls.

Looking at the Ohio State/Auburn differential, one starts with point differential in wins by each. Ohio State won their games by an average of 25 points per game, over 300 points totaled in just point differential for the season. Auburn, on the other hand, only averaged a point differential per game of 12.353 points per game, or just under 200 points for the season.

There is one more factor to consider in that Auburn played 8 home games on the year, with Ohio State playing 7. You get higher point totals for road wins in general. Each team played one home game against an FCS opponent, with the Buckeyes crushing Florida A&M 76-0, which picked up a few more points than Auburn with their win over Western Carolina.

The numbers will accumulate through the bowls, with less than 200 points separating Auburn at number five, and Louisville at ten. There will also be available opportunities to move up with upsets to the top five.

Here are our final regular season rankings for 2013:

1 3286 Florida State  13-0 Def. Duke 45-7
2 2601 Ohio State  12-1 Lost to Michigan State 34-24
3 2559 Northern Illinois  12-1 Lost to Bowling Green State 47-27
4 2445 Baylor  11-1 Def. Texas 30-10
5 2370 Auburn  12-1 Def. Missouri 59-42
6 2311 Central Florida  11-1 Def. Southern Methodist 17-13
7 2304 Michigan State  12-1 Def. Ohio State 34-24
8 2298 Fresno State  11-1 Def. Utah State 24-17
9 2295 Alabama  11-1 Regular Season Over
10 2199 Louisville  11-1 Def. Cincinnati 31-24
11 2172 Stanford  11-2 Def. Arizona State 38-14
12 2064 Missouri  11-2 Lost to Auburn 59-42
13 1997 Oregon  10-2 Regular Season Over
14 1907 Oklahoma  10-2 Def. Oklahoma State 33-24
15 1905 Oklahoma State  10-2 Lost to Oklahoma 33-24
16 1863 Ball State  10-2 Regular Season Over
17 1818 Rice  10-3 Def. Marshall 41-24
18 1770 Bowling Green State  10-3 Def. Northern Illinois 47-27
19 1725 Arizona State  10-3 Lost to Stanford 38-14
20 1708 South Carolina  10-2 Regular Season Over
21 1657 Clemson  10-2 Regular Season Over
22 1637 UCLA  9-3 Regular Season Over
23 1516 East Carolina  9-3 Regular Season Over
24 1512 Marshall  9-4 Lost to Rice 41-24
25 1506 Duke  10-3 Lost to Florida State 45-7
26 1482 Wisconsin  9-3 Regular Season Over
27 1400 Cincinnati  9-3 Lost to Louisville 31-24
28 1370 Louisiana State  9-3 Regular Season Over
29 1323 Miami (FL)  9-3 Regular Season Over
30 1315 Southern California  9-4 Regular Season Over
31 1242 Texas  8-4 Lost to Baylor 30-10
32 1239 North Texas  8-4 Regular Season Over
33 1132 Boise State  8-4 Regular Season Over
34 1087 Washington  8-4 Regular Season Over
35 1075 Notre Dame  8-4 Regular Season Over
36 1068 Georgia  8-4 Regular Season Over
37T 1060 Houston  8-4 Regular Season Over
37T 1060 Texas A&M  8-4 Regular Season Over
39 1037 Louisiana-Lafayette  8-4 Lost to South Alabama 30-8
40 1006 Buffalo  8-4 Regular Season Over
41T 987 Brigham Young  8-4 Regular Season Over
41T 987 Western Kentucky  8-4 Regular Season Over
43 953 Utah State  8-5 Lost to Fresno State 24-17
44 930 Middle Tennessee State  8-4 Regular Season Over
45 903 Iowa  8-4 Regular Season Over
46 869 Nebraska  8-4 Regular Season Over
47 866 Vanderbilt  8-4 Regular Season Over
48 858 Virginia Tech  8-4 Regular Season Over
49 837 Minnesota  8-4 Regular Season Over
50 801 Navy  7-4 Bye
51 788 Michigan  7-5 Regular Season Over
52 674 Penn State  7-5 Regular Season Over
53 668 Kansas State  7-5 Regular Season Over
54 655 Arizona  7-5 Regular Season Over
55 648 Texas-San Antonio  7-5 Regular Season Over
56 621 Texas Tech  7-5 Regular Season Over
57 616 Toledo  7-5 Regular Season Over
58 562 Colorado State  7-6 Regular Season Over
59 558 Mississippi  7-5 Regular Season Over
60 538 San Diego State  7-5 Regular Season Over
61 530 Arkansas State  7-5 Regular Season Over
62 524 Boston College  7-5 Regular Season Over
63 514 Tulane  7-5 Regular Season Over
64 484 Nevada-Las Vegas  7-5 Regular Season Over
65 470 Georgia Tech  7-5 Regular Season Over
66 464 Ohio  7-5 Regular Season Over
67 445 Maryland  7-5 Regular Season Over
68 417 Florida Atlantic  6-6 Regular Season Over
69 343 Oregon State  6-6 Regular Season Over
70 304 South Alabama  6-6 Def. Louisiana-Lafayette 30-8
71 221 Troy  6-6 Regular Season Over
72 191 North Carolina  6-6 Regular Season Over
73 181 San Jose State  6-6 Regular Season Over
74 143 Washington State  6-6 Regular Season Over
75 91 Central Michigan  6-6 Regular Season Over
76 89 Mississippi State  6-6 Regular Season Over
77 68 Texas State  6-6 Regular Season Over
78 63 Pittsburgh  6-6 Regular Season Over
79 62 Rutgers  6-6 Def. South Florida 31-6
80 24 Louisiana-Monroe  6-6 Regular Season Over
81 21 Syracuse  6-6 Regular Season Over
82 -214 Indiana  5-7 Regular Season Over
83 -225 Wyoming  5-7 Regular Season Over
84 -256 Utah  5-7 Regular Season Over
85 -274 Northwestern  5-7 Regular Season Over
86 -289 Southern Methodist  5-8 Lost to Central Florida 17-13
87 -371 Tennessee  5-7 Regular Season Over
88 -393 Akron  5-7 Regular Season Over
89 -584 Texas Christian  4-8 Regular Season Over
90 -601 Florida  4-8 Regular Season Over
91T -642 Kent State  4-8 Regular Season Over
91T -642 West Virginia  4-8 Regular Season Over
93 -653 Nevada-Reno  4-8 Regular Season Over
94 -682 Louisiana Tech  4-8 Regular Season Over
95 -705 Illinois  4-8 Regular Season Over
96 -730 Wake Forest  4-8 Regular Season Over
97 -777 New Mexico  3-9 Regular Season Over
98 -801 Army  3-8 Bye
99 -930 Colorado  4-8 Regular Season Over
100 -951 Tulsa  3-9 Regular Season Over
101 -986 Iowa State  3-9 Regular Season Over
102 -1069 Connecticut  3-9 Def. Memphis 45-10
103 -1098 Memphis  3-9 Lost to Connecticut 45-10
104 -1154 Arkansas  3-9 Regular Season Over
105 -1237 North Carolina State  3-9 Regular Season Over
106 -1260 Temple  2-10 Regular Season Over
107 -1300 Texas-El Paso  2-10 Regular Season Over
108 -1325 Kansas  3-9 Regular Season Over
109 -1475 Alabama-Birmingham  2-10 Regular Season Over
110 -1526 Air Force  2-10 Regular Season Over
111 -1532 Kentucky  2-10 Regular Season Over
112 -1557 Hawaii  1-11 Regular Season Over
113 -1563 South Florida  2-10 Lost to Rutgers 31-6
114T -1624 Eastern Michigan  2-10 Regular Season Over
114T -1624 Virginia  2-10 Regular Season Over
116 -1667 New Mexico State  2-10 Regular Season Over
117 -1793 Southern Mississippi  1-11 Regular Season Over
118 -1813 Western Michigan  1-11 Regular Season Over
119 -1925 Idaho  1-11 Regular Season Over
120 -1966 Massachusetts  1-11 Regular Season Over
121 -1986 California  1-11 Regular Season Over
122 -2060 Florida International  1-11 Regular Season Over
123 -2068 Purdue  1-11 Regular Season Over
124 -2244 Miami (OH)  0-12 Regular Season Over
125 -2440 Georgia State  0-12 Regular Season Over

No comments:

Post a Comment