Finally, we have a position in this draft that may have some value. The receiver class has some serious clout at the top, but where the issue is, even with this group, is that it is not necessarily deep. When you look at a draft, and you are investing a great deal of money and time in talent, one has to be able to provide impact. The days of sitting and developing and learning are gone. One has to jump in and make something happen, or else you are done at by the time you are 24 in this game. This group may provide some of that impact.
My Top Ten WRs
1. Amari Cooper, Alabama
2. Kevin White, West Virginia
3. DeVante Parker, Louisville
4. Jaelen Strong, Arizona State
5. Sammie Coates, Auburn
6. Devin Smith, Ohio State
7. Devin Funchess, Michigan
8. Nelson Agholar, USC
9. Jamison Crowder, Duke
10. Tyler Lockett, Kansas State
Biggest Impact Potential
Amari Cooper
Biggest Bust Potential
Dorial Beckham-Green, Oklahoma/Missouri
Best Small School Prospect
Deamin Lewis, Central Arkansas
Best Value Pick
Devin Funchess
Amari Cooper
Alabama
6-1, 210
4.52 40 Time
Overview: Though not a consensus top pick at WR, Cooper may be the most prepared of this class to be the first receiver picked, and could also be one of the most impactful out of the gate. When looking at his intangibles on paper, nothing jumps out at you, but when you watch his tape, Cooper knows how to play this game. Cooper busted 100 grabs and broke 1500 yards last season, and scored 14 TDs. In short, Cooper is as much a sure thing as anyone in this draft.
Pros: Cooper, despite not having top shelf speed, is more elusive and quick than speedy. Once in the open field, no receiver in this class is tougher to catch there. He can hit top speed quickly out of the snap, and shakes off jams like a pro already. The word of the day with Cooper is fluid. He runs well, hits his routes perfectly, and just knows how to get open. He knows how to read zones and can find the seam and hang in open space. Cooper has excellent hands, and can make good plays out of bad.
Cons: Despite having great hands, he still drops too many footballs, and that may be more of a concentration thing at times than a hands issue. He can create when routes break down, but sometimes he overdoes it a bit, and that can take a QB out of rhythm. He needs to find consistency, and just go with the play as it is drawn more often. Cooper has decent, but not great speed by any means, and his build on paper isn't perfect.
Final Thoughts: Cooper is ready for the next level, despite some rawness in his game, which seems to be mostly mental. He may be ready to step in and bring amazing impact right away. He is not Julio Jones, but he's close, and with the right coaching, he can get there. Despite all of that, I consider him an absolute top five pick.
Projection: 1st Round
Kevin White
West Virginia
6-3, 210
4.49 40 Time
Overview: White may be better than Cooper, and some think so, while some don't. I am split, and consider the two a 1A and 1B type of duo in this draft. Each brings intangibles that are impossible to ignore, and both play differently. For me, what makes White my second WR in the class is the West Virginia offensive system, which does not really relate to the pro game. After a subpar 2013 season, White worked his tail off and exploded in 2014. With a bit of adjustment and coaching, White could be the most valuable receiver in the draft, he will just take a bit more work than Cooper.
Pros: The size/speed combo that White offers is top shelf. He is physically the most imposing WR in this group, and with some refinement, can be one of the best receivers in the game sooner than lower. He has the height to go up and get to balls thrown high, and has highly efficient hands. He has the ability to shake coverage and beat jams at the line, and uses his body as a shield to get to the ball. He's a great in stride receiver, and can catch footballs without stopping or slowing and flow through in stride. He is very creative in space, and if he gets by you, or gets away in the open field, he's gone.
Cons: If there is one fault, it's that he goes down too easily. He will not shake a defender off once contact is made after the catch. If he gets hit, he stops. Again, like Cooper, he can be mentally inconsistent. He still has room to grow, and the WVU spread didn't do him favors getting ready for the next level. He also has to get better playing without the football.
Final Thoughts: I wouldn't be able to easily pick between White and Cooper, but both could be top five quality picks. Of course he has work to do, and needs to develop this offseason. I believe that while he may not be as immediate as Cooper, he is going to be possibly great in short order. You can't go wrong picking either of them.
Projection: 1st round
DeVante Parker
Louisville
6-3, 209
4.48 40 Time
Overview: Parker is a guy who can dominate a game, and despite missing over half of the 2014 season to injury, Parker came back and tore up the ACC, averaging 150 yards per game. Parker is a potentially surprising player in this draft, and may provide major impact over the big picture, but has to stay healthy to do so.
Pros: Parker has amazing size/speed intangibles, and had he not missed so much of last season, he may very well have been right up there with Cooper and White. He certainly has their ability, including White's ability to extend and go up for high throws and get to them. He has solid hands, and gets to the ball with ease. He works the sideline like a pro, and can shake coverage to the inside as well. He is a pro at running routes, and should be able to step into a system and have immediate impact, while becoming a starter down the road.
Cons: Parker lacks skills in the blocking game, and seems to fade when the ball isn't coming to him. He's more quick than fast, and can get jammed at the line, and will have to add bulk to offset this issue, which may slow him down. He can be outmuscled down the field, and won't fight as hard as he needs to for the ball. He lacks consistent concentration, and will drop a few. Another guy who has had some serious injury issues during his college career.
Final thoughts: Parker has a few issues that can be ironed out, but he needs the right coaching to make that happen. He also needs to tone down the rhetoric, and will sometimes be his biggest fan on the field. All that said, Parker can be coached up to be one of the better young WRs in the NFL in a couple of seasons, and in the right situation, that could happen sooner. He's not a sure early first rounder, but has enough potential to draw a mid first round pick.
Projection: 1st Round
Jaelen Strong
Arizona State
6-3, 215
4.55 40 Time
Overview: Strong became one of my favorite receivers in college football last fall, and has a knack for making big, timely plays, such as the huge Hail Mary grab that beat USC. Strong is a tall receiver with sticky hands that just seems to outplay his otherwise average logistics when it comes to the eyeball test.
Pros: Strong is a fighter in the passing game, and will use his physical strengths to go after the ball. He is a fairly big guy, and shields the ball very well. He is very smart, and reads film well, and has a knack for pre snap breakdown on defenses he is facing. He won't go down easy and fights through tackles. Makes solid cuts in the open field, and will block like an animal without the ball.
Cons: He gets a little too physical at times and welcomes contact more than you would like. He often gets a bit lazy running routes, and will take shortcuts, which will sometimes leave his QB hanging high. His speed isn't great, and he will not outrun anyone in the NFL. More of an over the middle threat than deep ball threat.
Final Thoughts: Despite lacking intangibles in the speed game, Strong is an excellent prospect when it comes to possession receivers. If you need that big first down conversion, Strong is an excellent target. If you are looking for a burner, he is not your guy. The lazy route thing can be worked out through coaching, but all in all, Strong has really good value in the late first or early second round. He may be the next Ed McCaffery.
Projection: 2nd Round
Sammie Coates
Auburn
6-2, 201
4.36 40 Time
Overview: Coates was probably one of the more underutilized receivers in the nation with the weak armed, run first Nick Marshall playing QB. When you look at his season numbers the last two seasons, they aren't anything special, which is why I have him ranked 5th in class this year. What we have not seen is what Coates can do in a passing offense where his skills would be more appreciated.
Pros: Coates is a true burner in the straight line sprint game. He can flat out fly when unhindered. Adding to his speed is his top shelf size, which makes him a dark horse eventually to be a number one in someone's offense. He can be very physical when he needs to be, and will use his body to make the catch. If you miss him after the catch, he can be gone in a second. He will get to the football, and often enough has to slow down to catch badly thrown balls. HE will dive for balls, and will go get it no matter what it takes.
Cons: Due to the lack of a pro passing game at Auburn, Coates still has so much to learn. He is used to the college game, and may need some time for development, and so may not be as impactful as you like in year one. He loses concentration, and will drop too many balls because he is always thinking of where he is going next before he makes the play. His lack of knowledge shows when running routes, which are often sloppy. Football smarts may not be up to snuff, and doesn't read coverage well yet. Irrelevant as a blocker.
Final thoughts: Coates has some innate skills that make him an interesting prospect, but he needs a ton of work to be the guy that he should be. It's not all his fault, because he was often wasted by the Auburn coaching staff. He is a high risk/high reward guy.
Projection: 3rd round
The Next Five
Devin Smith, Ohio State
Smith is a speedy slot guy on the next level who can produce a bunch in the right offense. He may fit best in a Patriot or Bronco offense type that rewards the slot receiver on the next level. He has the downfalls that many kids coming out of college has, and that's bad habits in route running and staying consistent with the football. If he can be physical off the snap, he's the kind of guy who gets lost in coverage and get deep unnoticed. Not only will he give you value on passing downs, but on special teams as well. He could have very good early round value in the right spot.
Projection: 3rd round
Devin Funchess, Michigan
A former TE for the Wolverines, Funchess moved to WR, and became an instant hit lining up outside. He could still move back inside and play TE in the NFL, but he is a size mismatch on the outside, and can score big time against smaller DBs. He is still learning how to play the position, however, and lost developmental time at WR due to an ankle injury that killed his 2014 season. A developmental type right now, Funchess has some serious potential as a possession receiver later on down the line, but don't expect too much too quickly.
Projection: 3rd Round
Nelson Agholar, USC
Agholar is a guy who often got lost in the muck that was USC QB play the last couple of seasons, but clearly had an improvement run in 2014 when Cody Kessler broke through. He has excellent hands, and even better body control in traffic, making him a solid threat. Great route runner, especially underneath, and does not fear being physical. Breaks through sloppy tackling, and hits the open field. The drawback is that he is overly physical and takes too many unnecessary hits. He will, however, provide extra value as a punt returner, which he excels at. Overall speed is average, at best.
Projection: 3rd Round
Jamison Crowder, Duke
Crowder became a star for the Devils during a rise in the programs success, and much of it on offense was due to his ability. The problem at large with Crowder is a lack of top flight size, speed, and hand size. Crowder has raw ability despite his downgraded areas, and plays better than he is on film. .Crowder broke away big time, picking up three straight 1000 yard seasons, and may be better than he looks. It's hard to overlook productivity.
Projection: 4th Round
Tyler Lockett, Kansas State
Lockett served as a highlight reel during his career with the Wildcats. Lockett is best served as a slot guy and punt/kick return man on the next level because of his overall grit and speed that overlies his lack of size. Despite ideal size, Lockett is still a fighter and will scrap with defensive players, and often enough, he gets them to overcompensate for his toughness and he burns them deep. Lockett is basically one of the more exciting players in this class, and could surprise many.
Projection: 4th round
The Rest
Dorial Green-Beckham, Missouri/Oklahoma...Off the field train wreck who wasted on field talent.
Phillip Dorsett, Miami...Super speed, but a work in progress. Has never had effective QB.
Rashad Greene, Florida State...Small and weak, can get muscled off of routes easily.
Josh Harper, Fresno State...Limited as an athlete, smallish in size. Low ceiling.
Tony Lippett, Michigan State...Still learning offense. Played DB until 2012. Project guy.
Breshad Perriman, UCF...Big receiver with raw talent. Needs development on technique.
Justin Hardy, East Carolina...Would've gone early a year ago. Small system receiver.
Ty Montgomery, Stanford...Limited athletically, seems stiff running the field.
Vince Mayle, Washington State...System guy who may be more suited to TE. Still learning the game.
Dres Anderson, Utah...Great potential on paper, serious concerns in reality. Injury history is bad.
Stefon Diggs, Maryland...Lackluster route runner who lacks overall size.
Austin Hill, Arizona...Talent level is top shelf, but injuries have derailed him. Big risk player.
Deontay Greenberry, Houston...Injury risk, lackluster overall skill set.
Tre McBride, William & Mary...Best small school prospect, but limited athletically.
Dezmin Lewis, Central Arkansas...Big receiver that can line up wide, but limited after that.
Antwan Goodley, Baylor...Another system guy, lacks size, limited to slot.
Kenny Bell, Nebraska...Late round steal potential, was a game changer for Huskers.
Devante Davis, UNLV...Was bright spot on bleak UNLV squad. Late round diamond in rough.
Levi Norwood, Baylor...Another system guy who may have trouble fitting in on next level.
Everything College Football from Scott Bilo, National Football Foundation and Football Writers Association Member. CFB Hall of Fame voter. Contributor on ESPN Las Vegas, ESPN Jackson, MS, and VSiN on Sirius. Keith Harding Lead Statistician Co-Editor, Dina Bilo Social Networking Director, Co-Editor. Contact us at powerratedsports@yahoo.com Married to Dina (15 years), Dad to Evelyn, Elvis, Trixy, and Steve! SUBSCRIBE TO POWER RATED PREMIUM PICKS NEWSLETTER NOW!
Saturday, April 18, 2015
Saturday, April 4, 2015
2015 NFL Draft Prospectus: Running Backs
Running Back is a position that has been highly devalued in the pro game. Since the NFL has gone on to pass happy spread offenses, RB has simply been taken down a notch, and this season, we could see a draft in which a RB is not even taken in the first round. That is both a slam on the talent level available, but is also a slam on how far the position has fallen in the scheme of things. If you want a direct comparison, in 2015, RBs are the new TEs.
Top Ten
1. Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
2. Todd Gurley, Georgia
3. Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska
4. Jay Ajayi, Boise State
5. Duke Johnson, Miami
6. Tevin Coleman, Indiana
7. TJ Yeldon, Alabama
8. Jeremy Langford, Michigan State
9. Mike Davis, South Carolina
10. David Cobb, Minnesota
Most Likely to Surprise
Jay Ajayi, Boise State
Most Likely to Flop
Todd Gurley, Georgia
Best Small School Prospect
Davod Johnson, Northern Iowa
Melvin Gordon
Wisconsin
6-1, 207
4.52 40 Time
Overview: The second back in a row that busted the 2000 yard barrier in FBS football. Gordon rushed for over 2500 yards, and seemed like nobody could tackle him at times. He emerged from an annual tradition of Wisconsin using a tandem of backs, and became a serious leader in a deep group of Badger backs during the 2014 season. Gordon should be, by far, the first back picked in this draft.
Pros: Gordon is a solid between the tackles runner who picks out holes brilliantly, and gets through them with a solid burst. He runs with a low center of gravity, and is great with his hands while carrying the ball. He plays smart, follows blocks, and knows when to make his breaks. He breaks tackles easily, and runs through sloppy tackle technique, and even drives through the good hits.
Cons: While Gordon has great burst, he lacks top shelf speed, and underwhelmed while running his 40 at the combine. When you see him on the field, you can't help but wonder how he drives through hits, being that he just looks small. If Gordon ends up on a team with a less than ideal line, you have to consider that he may become an easy target, as he doesn't often create his own lanes. He doesn't fit every offense, but could fit a few quite well, like Dallas.
Final Thoughts: Ten to fifteen years ago, Gordon would have been a consensus top ten pick, but the game has changed so much, and RBs don't go like they used to. Gordon needs to go to a traditional run offense where he can get 25 carries per game, and that is rare these days. I'm not saying that Gordon cannot cut it on the next level, because I believe he can, but I am saying that he needs to find that right spot to land in to have the most of his abilities made use of.
Projection: 2nd Round
Todd Gurley
Georgia
6-1, 226
4.52 40 Time
Overview: Gurley is an enigma for me. He has the talent to be a top shelf back, but he has been injured and has lost chunks of time. He was the best back in the nation halfway through the season, and then got popped for taking pay for autographs. He then came back from that suspension, and then blew his ACL. This kind of thing is always a bad deal for me, because Gurley knew he was leaving UGA after the season, and didn't have the character to hang in there for another season when he would obviously be paid well for his services. He has the skills, but does he have the maturity and lack of selfishness enough to succeed? Can the knee hold up?
Pros: When healthy, Gurley is an all purpose type back that looked all-world before his suspension, and had he stayed on the field, could have rivaled Gordon for the top spot on this list. It is his raw ability that keeps him second. He can catch the ball out of the backfield, and shows great promise as a third down option. He runs hard, follows block, and breaks like a pro already. He has solid size, and looks like a beast physically. He can break it outside, and also punches through between the tackles. He looks the part.
Cons: Gurley has had problems staying on the field for two years now. He injured his ankle in 2013, and the knee injury came after a suspension in 2014, and he was lucky to get back after the suspension. Injuries are one thing, but for a guy who was supposedly driven to succeed and hit the NFL running, he seemed slow to get back. The suspension for taking money really bothers me, because it makes him look like he lacks discipline. That takes all the physical skills that he has, the raw talent, and flushes it for me.
Final Thoughts: Gurley has all of the tools to succeed, and knows how to play this game. When he is on his A game, he is one of the better backs I have seen in twenty years. That being said, Gurley lacks conviction, and the injuries have been problematic. In reality, I should have dropped him some in my projections, but I know that the NFL is full of suckers, and some sucker is going to fall for this act. Just hope it's not your team that does.
Projection: 2nd round
Ameer Abdullah
Nebraska
5-8, 198
4.48 40 Time
Overview: Abdullah was a game changing back for Nebraska during his career with the Huskers, and closed out his career with over 1600 yards in 2014, and he single handedly saved the Huskers from what would have been a devastating loss at home against FCS McNeese State. When Abdullah kicks his game into overdrive, there were few backs in college that could keep up with him. Only the legendary Mike Rozier finished with more yards than Abdullah did.
Pros: Excellent field of vision, and is explosive in the open field. Runs like the wind, and once he's in the open, you can forget about chasing him. He is excellent with his hands, and plays receiver out of the backfield with the best of them. Can move in motion and line up in the slot if necessary, and can take advantage of mismatches. Runs with authority between the tackles, and has amazing after burn cutting outside. Loves to take hits, and lowers the pads to run through lazy tackles. He is elusive in tight spaces, and runs with a solid level of gravity.
Cons: The major knock on Abdullah is his lack of great size, but he certainly does not look like a scat back. His lack of build, however, is a concern, and he could be susceptible to injury if hit too many times. Due to his lack of size, he seems like a back that would see his carries limited per game. He doesn't block well in the passing game, and is basically not useful picking up the blitz at all.
Final thoughts: If Abdullah had Todd Gurley's size, he'd be a top five pick. He is that good at what he is able to do, and his size really is his only major flaw. The blitz issue can be coached up, but his size limits his ability to be a great pass blocker. If he lands in the right situation, he could be a bargain pick, because he has the heart to work through his shortcomings and succeed. His teammates will probably love the guy.
Projection: Late second round
Jay Ajayi
Boise State
6-0, 216
4.54 40 Time
Overview: Ajayi really came on at Boise State the last two seasons after a less than stellar start to his career. He lost his first season due to an injury and an arrest for theft, and then blew his knee. He came back buried on the depth chart his second season, and then earned his way as a starter in his junior season. He really became a prospect midway through the 2013 season, and continued to progress in 2014, and may now be one of the more intriguing prospects in this draft.
Pros: Ajayi has molded himself into a crafty runner, and has worked hard to learn how to control his feet in the run game. He is a solid cutter, and knows how to read a defense pre snap. He knows where the holes will develop, and follows instinctively. He runs low, and absorbs hits. He runs through tackles, and teams usually have to gang up to tackle him. He is an excellent pass catcher, and can move out in motion.
Cons: While he runs hard, and sometimes is tough to bring down, he doesn't run that way consistently always. He will spend too much time running east and west, rather than being decisive and punching it north and south. His speed is lacking amongst elite runners, and lacks break away speed. He also has some issues with fumbles, and can get the dropsies on occasion.
Final thoughts: Ajayi has some serious flaws, but somehow, when you look at what he can do, one has to be intrigued. He had a big season in 2014, and was solid the year before. He seems to have overcome his need for a five fingered discount, and has built his character since his freshman season, so that issue seems quite distant. I think, that with the right coaching, he can overcome his flaws and become a very good starting back. His flaws will drop him in the draft, but with the right attitude, and the right coaching, Ajayi could overcome and be the best of this group. The one bad draw is that you cannot coach speed.
Projection: 3rd round
Duke Johnson
Miami
5-9, 206
4.42 40 Time
Overview: Johnson is an interesting back who may have been better off in a stronger program. I have to wonder that if was in the SEC, or Florida State, how great he could have been. Johnson is a frustrating guy in the way that while he displays some serious skill at tines, he has shown a lack of consistency.
Pros: Speed, speed, and more speed. Johnson is one of the fastest guys in this draft, and can run like a rocket. He has amazing burst in the open field, and really burns off of the corner. He has great cut ability, and follows blocks with flourish. Elusive, and makes himself small in space. Can catch the ball with skill out of the backfield.
Cons: Johnson lacks ideal size, and is a bit short. He also has a major injury history, and even when he started a game healthy, he failed to finish in several of those games. He has had a myriad of injuries, and that is a serious concern when considering drafting him. He will never be an every down back in the NFL, and may be limited to a 3rd down role. Being undersized, he cannot be depended upon in the pass blocking game, so if you have him in on 3rd down, you had better use him as a target.
Final thoughts: Johnson is a frustrating back who has some skills, but seemed limited by a lack of size, and by his frail nature. Johnson seems to lack a certain drive, and doesn't play hurt at all. His limitations are just too many for me to get enticed by his top flight speed. I'd stay way on draft day.
Projection: 4th Round
Tevin Coleman
Indiana
6-0, 210
4.59 40 Time
Overview: Coleman was another 2000 yard rusher in 2014, and was the lone bright spot on an Indiana offense that really did little else than run the ball well. He ran for 2036 yards, the only season of his three at IU where he ran for over a thousand yards. Coleman may be a bit of a one hit wonder, but spent that hit by garnering All-Big Ten honors.
Pros: Strong point of contact runner, who plows his own holes at the line. Runs hard and aggressive, and takes extra yards buy always making sure to fall forward. Always uses his legs to stride forward. He has some skill as a pass catcher. One of his solid skills is what others lack this year, and he is a solid pass blocker who picks up blitzes.
Cons: While he can break free and score on long runs, he hardly has top shelf speed. He also has a tendency to run too upright, and leaves him open to too many hits. He's not overly big, and looks a bit small, which could be an issue. He doesn't run with abandon, and lacks secondary moves. He also has fumble tendencies that could prove to be a major problem.
Final thoughts: Coleman is not a top flight prospect for me, and seems like a one hit wonder. He was never able to do what he did in other season but his last. If he had better production over a longer time frame, I would be a fan, however, he lacks overall career production that makes me believe what he did last season was sustainable, and so I see major flop potential here.
Projection: 4th round
TJ Yeldon
Alabama
6-2, 221
4.46 40 Time
Overview: Yeldon has the ability to make it on the next level, but there are inconsistencies that make him a huge risk at this point, and it is not certain that he will ever perform to his expectations. Yeldon had fumble issues at Alabama, and the Tide has had a recent history of busts coming from this position.
Pros: Speed is a plus with Yeldon, and he uses that speed with a power combo on occasion. Can elude arm tackles and hit the open field in a hurry. If he gets loose, you are not going to catch him. He has solid size and build, and cuts with ease. Will hit the hole quickly at times.
Cons: Is not a creator when the holes don't open for him, and will wait all day for someone else to make something happen for him. H eruns upright, and that creates issues for fumbles, which he does too often. Despite his size, he is not an adept pass blocker, and will get run over. He is not a great between the tackles runner, and despite his size, prefers to play finesse rather than power football.
Final thoughts: Yeldon is maddening in that on paper, he looks like all pro material, but in reality, he doesn't measure up. Between his lack of between the tackle skills, and his turnover capacity, he just has bust written all over him on the next level.
Projection: 5th round
Other of Interest
Jeremy Langford, Michigan State
Langford is a speedy, hard working, underrated back who could be the steal of the class. Nobody in this group has worked as hard as Langford to overcome his lacking areas of play, and he has blossomed with each passing season. Langford has the edge to run power, but also has the finesse to bounce out. HIs drawback is that he lacks ideal size, but so did Le'Veon Bell when he went to the Steelers, and look at how well he does. One of my favorite, more underrated athletes in this draft.
Mike Davis, South Carolina
A dinged up, undersized effort lacking back, Davis has never lived up to his billing, and quite frankly mailed it in for most of 2014 in a disappointing overall season for the Gamecocks. Davis was expected to be a center piece, but spent more time nursing nagging injuries than performing to a large degree. He may be drafted, but I would not be surprised to see him not be.
David Cobb, Minnesota
Cobb gets a look simply because this is a weak draft. He is not a special athlete, and certainly lacks top end athleticism. He may be a backup or special teams guy, however he will have to work much harder than most to crack a roster. I don't see it, personally.
Others
Buck Allen, USC: Not a special back, and not a guy who can go full time.
David Johnson, Northern Iowa: Lacks speed, but had a nice FCS career. Pounder up the gut.
Josh Robinson, Mississippi State: Resume is a little bit short, with only one quality season.
Michael Dyer, Louisville: Character issues, injuries derailed him long ago.
Karlos Williams, Florida State: Speed/size combo checks out, overall effort does not.
Zach Zenner, South Dakota State: Three straight 2000 yard seasons in FCS.
Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn: Could be a rotation back, but not a front line guy.
Kevin Parks, Virginia: Would have been better coming out last year. Dipped as a senior.
John Crockett, North Dakota State: Three big seasons, three titles for Bison.
Jahwan Edwards, Ball State: A bit hard to overlook due to production. Could get an invite.
Tyler Varga, Yale: Had a big senior year, but that is it. Could get a camp invite.
Thomas Rawls, Central Michigan: Came out of nowhere in 2014. Could earn a look.
Top Ten
1. Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
2. Todd Gurley, Georgia
3. Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska
4. Jay Ajayi, Boise State
5. Duke Johnson, Miami
6. Tevin Coleman, Indiana
7. TJ Yeldon, Alabama
8. Jeremy Langford, Michigan State
9. Mike Davis, South Carolina
10. David Cobb, Minnesota
Most Likely to Surprise
Jay Ajayi, Boise State
Most Likely to Flop
Todd Gurley, Georgia
Best Small School Prospect
Davod Johnson, Northern Iowa
Melvin Gordon
Wisconsin
6-1, 207
4.52 40 Time
Overview: The second back in a row that busted the 2000 yard barrier in FBS football. Gordon rushed for over 2500 yards, and seemed like nobody could tackle him at times. He emerged from an annual tradition of Wisconsin using a tandem of backs, and became a serious leader in a deep group of Badger backs during the 2014 season. Gordon should be, by far, the first back picked in this draft.
Pros: Gordon is a solid between the tackles runner who picks out holes brilliantly, and gets through them with a solid burst. He runs with a low center of gravity, and is great with his hands while carrying the ball. He plays smart, follows blocks, and knows when to make his breaks. He breaks tackles easily, and runs through sloppy tackle technique, and even drives through the good hits.
Cons: While Gordon has great burst, he lacks top shelf speed, and underwhelmed while running his 40 at the combine. When you see him on the field, you can't help but wonder how he drives through hits, being that he just looks small. If Gordon ends up on a team with a less than ideal line, you have to consider that he may become an easy target, as he doesn't often create his own lanes. He doesn't fit every offense, but could fit a few quite well, like Dallas.
Final Thoughts: Ten to fifteen years ago, Gordon would have been a consensus top ten pick, but the game has changed so much, and RBs don't go like they used to. Gordon needs to go to a traditional run offense where he can get 25 carries per game, and that is rare these days. I'm not saying that Gordon cannot cut it on the next level, because I believe he can, but I am saying that he needs to find that right spot to land in to have the most of his abilities made use of.
Projection: 2nd Round
Todd Gurley
Georgia
6-1, 226
4.52 40 Time
Overview: Gurley is an enigma for me. He has the talent to be a top shelf back, but he has been injured and has lost chunks of time. He was the best back in the nation halfway through the season, and then got popped for taking pay for autographs. He then came back from that suspension, and then blew his ACL. This kind of thing is always a bad deal for me, because Gurley knew he was leaving UGA after the season, and didn't have the character to hang in there for another season when he would obviously be paid well for his services. He has the skills, but does he have the maturity and lack of selfishness enough to succeed? Can the knee hold up?
Pros: When healthy, Gurley is an all purpose type back that looked all-world before his suspension, and had he stayed on the field, could have rivaled Gordon for the top spot on this list. It is his raw ability that keeps him second. He can catch the ball out of the backfield, and shows great promise as a third down option. He runs hard, follows block, and breaks like a pro already. He has solid size, and looks like a beast physically. He can break it outside, and also punches through between the tackles. He looks the part.
Cons: Gurley has had problems staying on the field for two years now. He injured his ankle in 2013, and the knee injury came after a suspension in 2014, and he was lucky to get back after the suspension. Injuries are one thing, but for a guy who was supposedly driven to succeed and hit the NFL running, he seemed slow to get back. The suspension for taking money really bothers me, because it makes him look like he lacks discipline. That takes all the physical skills that he has, the raw talent, and flushes it for me.
Final Thoughts: Gurley has all of the tools to succeed, and knows how to play this game. When he is on his A game, he is one of the better backs I have seen in twenty years. That being said, Gurley lacks conviction, and the injuries have been problematic. In reality, I should have dropped him some in my projections, but I know that the NFL is full of suckers, and some sucker is going to fall for this act. Just hope it's not your team that does.
Projection: 2nd round
Ameer Abdullah
Nebraska
5-8, 198
4.48 40 Time
Overview: Abdullah was a game changing back for Nebraska during his career with the Huskers, and closed out his career with over 1600 yards in 2014, and he single handedly saved the Huskers from what would have been a devastating loss at home against FCS McNeese State. When Abdullah kicks his game into overdrive, there were few backs in college that could keep up with him. Only the legendary Mike Rozier finished with more yards than Abdullah did.
Pros: Excellent field of vision, and is explosive in the open field. Runs like the wind, and once he's in the open, you can forget about chasing him. He is excellent with his hands, and plays receiver out of the backfield with the best of them. Can move in motion and line up in the slot if necessary, and can take advantage of mismatches. Runs with authority between the tackles, and has amazing after burn cutting outside. Loves to take hits, and lowers the pads to run through lazy tackles. He is elusive in tight spaces, and runs with a solid level of gravity.
Cons: The major knock on Abdullah is his lack of great size, but he certainly does not look like a scat back. His lack of build, however, is a concern, and he could be susceptible to injury if hit too many times. Due to his lack of size, he seems like a back that would see his carries limited per game. He doesn't block well in the passing game, and is basically not useful picking up the blitz at all.
Final thoughts: If Abdullah had Todd Gurley's size, he'd be a top five pick. He is that good at what he is able to do, and his size really is his only major flaw. The blitz issue can be coached up, but his size limits his ability to be a great pass blocker. If he lands in the right situation, he could be a bargain pick, because he has the heart to work through his shortcomings and succeed. His teammates will probably love the guy.
Projection: Late second round
Jay Ajayi
Boise State
6-0, 216
4.54 40 Time
Overview: Ajayi really came on at Boise State the last two seasons after a less than stellar start to his career. He lost his first season due to an injury and an arrest for theft, and then blew his knee. He came back buried on the depth chart his second season, and then earned his way as a starter in his junior season. He really became a prospect midway through the 2013 season, and continued to progress in 2014, and may now be one of the more intriguing prospects in this draft.
Pros: Ajayi has molded himself into a crafty runner, and has worked hard to learn how to control his feet in the run game. He is a solid cutter, and knows how to read a defense pre snap. He knows where the holes will develop, and follows instinctively. He runs low, and absorbs hits. He runs through tackles, and teams usually have to gang up to tackle him. He is an excellent pass catcher, and can move out in motion.
Cons: While he runs hard, and sometimes is tough to bring down, he doesn't run that way consistently always. He will spend too much time running east and west, rather than being decisive and punching it north and south. His speed is lacking amongst elite runners, and lacks break away speed. He also has some issues with fumbles, and can get the dropsies on occasion.
Final thoughts: Ajayi has some serious flaws, but somehow, when you look at what he can do, one has to be intrigued. He had a big season in 2014, and was solid the year before. He seems to have overcome his need for a five fingered discount, and has built his character since his freshman season, so that issue seems quite distant. I think, that with the right coaching, he can overcome his flaws and become a very good starting back. His flaws will drop him in the draft, but with the right attitude, and the right coaching, Ajayi could overcome and be the best of this group. The one bad draw is that you cannot coach speed.
Projection: 3rd round
Duke Johnson
Miami
5-9, 206
4.42 40 Time
Overview: Johnson is an interesting back who may have been better off in a stronger program. I have to wonder that if was in the SEC, or Florida State, how great he could have been. Johnson is a frustrating guy in the way that while he displays some serious skill at tines, he has shown a lack of consistency.
Pros: Speed, speed, and more speed. Johnson is one of the fastest guys in this draft, and can run like a rocket. He has amazing burst in the open field, and really burns off of the corner. He has great cut ability, and follows blocks with flourish. Elusive, and makes himself small in space. Can catch the ball with skill out of the backfield.
Cons: Johnson lacks ideal size, and is a bit short. He also has a major injury history, and even when he started a game healthy, he failed to finish in several of those games. He has had a myriad of injuries, and that is a serious concern when considering drafting him. He will never be an every down back in the NFL, and may be limited to a 3rd down role. Being undersized, he cannot be depended upon in the pass blocking game, so if you have him in on 3rd down, you had better use him as a target.
Final thoughts: Johnson is a frustrating back who has some skills, but seemed limited by a lack of size, and by his frail nature. Johnson seems to lack a certain drive, and doesn't play hurt at all. His limitations are just too many for me to get enticed by his top flight speed. I'd stay way on draft day.
Projection: 4th Round
Tevin Coleman
Indiana
6-0, 210
4.59 40 Time
Overview: Coleman was another 2000 yard rusher in 2014, and was the lone bright spot on an Indiana offense that really did little else than run the ball well. He ran for 2036 yards, the only season of his three at IU where he ran for over a thousand yards. Coleman may be a bit of a one hit wonder, but spent that hit by garnering All-Big Ten honors.
Pros: Strong point of contact runner, who plows his own holes at the line. Runs hard and aggressive, and takes extra yards buy always making sure to fall forward. Always uses his legs to stride forward. He has some skill as a pass catcher. One of his solid skills is what others lack this year, and he is a solid pass blocker who picks up blitzes.
Cons: While he can break free and score on long runs, he hardly has top shelf speed. He also has a tendency to run too upright, and leaves him open to too many hits. He's not overly big, and looks a bit small, which could be an issue. He doesn't run with abandon, and lacks secondary moves. He also has fumble tendencies that could prove to be a major problem.
Final thoughts: Coleman is not a top flight prospect for me, and seems like a one hit wonder. He was never able to do what he did in other season but his last. If he had better production over a longer time frame, I would be a fan, however, he lacks overall career production that makes me believe what he did last season was sustainable, and so I see major flop potential here.
Projection: 4th round
TJ Yeldon
Alabama
6-2, 221
4.46 40 Time
Overview: Yeldon has the ability to make it on the next level, but there are inconsistencies that make him a huge risk at this point, and it is not certain that he will ever perform to his expectations. Yeldon had fumble issues at Alabama, and the Tide has had a recent history of busts coming from this position.
Pros: Speed is a plus with Yeldon, and he uses that speed with a power combo on occasion. Can elude arm tackles and hit the open field in a hurry. If he gets loose, you are not going to catch him. He has solid size and build, and cuts with ease. Will hit the hole quickly at times.
Cons: Is not a creator when the holes don't open for him, and will wait all day for someone else to make something happen for him. H eruns upright, and that creates issues for fumbles, which he does too often. Despite his size, he is not an adept pass blocker, and will get run over. He is not a great between the tackles runner, and despite his size, prefers to play finesse rather than power football.
Final thoughts: Yeldon is maddening in that on paper, he looks like all pro material, but in reality, he doesn't measure up. Between his lack of between the tackle skills, and his turnover capacity, he just has bust written all over him on the next level.
Projection: 5th round
Other of Interest
Jeremy Langford, Michigan State
Langford is a speedy, hard working, underrated back who could be the steal of the class. Nobody in this group has worked as hard as Langford to overcome his lacking areas of play, and he has blossomed with each passing season. Langford has the edge to run power, but also has the finesse to bounce out. HIs drawback is that he lacks ideal size, but so did Le'Veon Bell when he went to the Steelers, and look at how well he does. One of my favorite, more underrated athletes in this draft.
Mike Davis, South Carolina
A dinged up, undersized effort lacking back, Davis has never lived up to his billing, and quite frankly mailed it in for most of 2014 in a disappointing overall season for the Gamecocks. Davis was expected to be a center piece, but spent more time nursing nagging injuries than performing to a large degree. He may be drafted, but I would not be surprised to see him not be.
David Cobb, Minnesota
Cobb gets a look simply because this is a weak draft. He is not a special athlete, and certainly lacks top end athleticism. He may be a backup or special teams guy, however he will have to work much harder than most to crack a roster. I don't see it, personally.
Others
Buck Allen, USC: Not a special back, and not a guy who can go full time.
David Johnson, Northern Iowa: Lacks speed, but had a nice FCS career. Pounder up the gut.
Josh Robinson, Mississippi State: Resume is a little bit short, with only one quality season.
Michael Dyer, Louisville: Character issues, injuries derailed him long ago.
Karlos Williams, Florida State: Speed/size combo checks out, overall effort does not.
Zach Zenner, South Dakota State: Three straight 2000 yard seasons in FCS.
Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn: Could be a rotation back, but not a front line guy.
Kevin Parks, Virginia: Would have been better coming out last year. Dipped as a senior.
John Crockett, North Dakota State: Three big seasons, three titles for Bison.
Jahwan Edwards, Ball State: A bit hard to overlook due to production. Could get an invite.
Tyler Varga, Yale: Had a big senior year, but that is it. Could get a camp invite.
Thomas Rawls, Central Michigan: Came out of nowhere in 2014. Could earn a look.
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