2014 NFL Draft Prospectus
Running Backs
If you look at the running backs
of 2014, you see where there was a load of productivity in collegiate terms,
and this class even had a rare 2000 yard rusher on the FBS level in Andre
Williams of Boston College. College numbers seldom ever translate to the pro
game when it comes to running backs, and that may prove to be the case with
this group as well.
My red flag radar is pinging
heavily when it comes to this group, especially when it comes to character
issues affecting some of the higher ranking players in the group. Three of the
top five backs in this class have off-field issues that really need addressing
before jumping on the band wagon.
Don’t expect any member of this
class to go too early, as the running back position has been devalued by the
high power spread offenses that have refocused the game on QB play. That’s
probably a good thing, however, as I am not sure that any one of these players
have instant impact on their horizons.
Top 5
Carlos Hyde, Ohio State
Tre Mason, Auburn
Ka’Deem Carey, Arizona
Bishop Sankey, Washington
Jeremy Hill, LSU
Most Overrated
Carlos Hyde, Ohio State
Jeremy Hill, LSU
Lache Seastrunk, Baylor
Devonta Freeman, Florida State
Charles Sims, West Virginia
Most Underrated
Tyler Gafney, Stanford
James White, Wisconsin
Best Small School Prospect
Isaiah Crowell, Alabama State
Terrence West, Towson
Jerrick McKinnon, Georgia Southern
Carlos Hyde, Ohio State
6-0, 235
4.62 40 Time
Projected Pick: 50-55
Hyde was a four year player at
Ohio State, starting in 2010, when he carried the football just eight times on
the season. The power back increased his load in 2011 by rushing 106 times for
566 yards and six scores, averaging 5.34 yards per carry. He really took over
as a primary in 2012, carrying the ball 185 times in ten games, picking up 970
yards, averaging 5.24 yards per carry, and scoring 16 times on the year. He
missed two games to an ankle injury. In 2013, Hyde carried the ball 208 times
for 1521 yards and 16 scores, while averaging 7.31 per carry in 12 games, but
dealt with a suspension in 2013 due to assault charges from an incident the
previous summer.
Pros: Hyde is a typical power back and workhorse who is difficult
to bring down in the open field. He has solid build for a power back at 235
lbs. and can blow through arm tackles with a vengeance. Plays angry, which
helps his drive and makes him take on defenders. Runs like a smaller back at
times, and can take hits while still pumping his legs for extra ground.
Increased his workload yearly, as the staff built up more confidence in his
ability to carry a backfield. Was good for over seven yards per carry as a
senior, keeping the pressure off of his QB to have to make first downs on long
yardage 2nd and 3rd down situations.
Cons: Character issues abound with Hyde, who faced a suspension for
an assault committed the July before his senior seasons. Also had other
off-field issues off and on during his time at Ohio State. Hyde sometimes
thinks that he is a smaller back than he is and trusts in raw skill more than
he should. His conditioning has come into question many times, as he gets
winded often in games and has to be taken out. Hyde will not fit in a spread
offense, and only selective teams can take him and make him work. He doesn’t
have great breakaway speed, with only a 4.62 40 time which is not nearly elite
enough for an NFL back in the open field, where NFL Linebackers will be able to
run with him. Not a olidified receiver out of the backfield, nor is he an elite
blocker.
Final Grade: B-…Hyde improved yearly at Ohio State, and while he
has elite size, he doesn’t have the speed to fit every season.
Final Assessment: To steal a term from Greg Cossell, Hyde is not a
foundation back, meaning that he is not plug and play for every kind of
offense. He is strictly a prototype three yards and a cloud of dust type back,
who stretched his yards per carry average a little bit based on playing some
weaker teams on the Buckeye schedule. Character issues worry me about Hyde, and
his lack of speed worries me more. I feel that he has value form the third
round down personally, but scouts have graded him as second round material. I
feel that is mostly because, like the QBs, this is a thin class this year for
RB help.
Tre Mason, Auburn
5-9, 205
4.48 40 Time
Projected Pick: 40-45
Mason was a three year player for
Auburn, but only carried the ball substantially in 2012 and 2013. In 2011,
Mason carried the football just 28 times for 161 yards and one TD. Mason became
more of a threat in 2012, when he carried the ball 171 times for 1002 yards and
eight TDs in 12 games, averaging 5.86 yards per carry. Mason became a beast in
2013, when he carried 317 times in 14 games, picking up an SEC leading 1816
yards, while scoring 23 TDs on the ground, leading the Tigers to the BCS title
game, where they fell to Florida State late in the game. Mason rushed for 195
yards and a score in the BCS title game, while also rushing for a whopping 304
yards in the SEC title game against Missouri, where he scored four times.
Pros: Solid lower body, reminding me of Maurice Jones-Drew in his
prime days. He is smaller, but doesn’t run like a scat back. He makes quick
decisions, hits the hole, and keeps on driving. Runs with discipline, but can
improvise when needed. Finds his blockers and follows until the block springs
him. Solid speed sets him up nicely as a kick returner as well, which he has
some experience with.
Cons: Again, not a foundation type back right out of the gate,
because he has very little experience as a receiver, and would not fit where he
had to be a safety valve right away. That is coachable, however. He doesn’t
have a solid height advantage, and may be a bit on the short side of 5-9.
Doesn’t look big on film. Plays bigger than his size suggests, and that could
be more of a problem than a help. He could be vulnerable to big hits and
injuries due to his lack of overall size, and the fact that he runs a bit
upright at times. He runs his speed, but doesn’t change speeds all that much,
making him a one dimensional back of sorts. While rushing for a career and SEC
single season high in yardage (breaking Bo Jackson’s record), this was not a
premier year for SEC defenses across the board.
Final Grade: B-…Not a complete back, and can be a little bit one
dimensional.
Final Assessment: Mason had a huge season in what was more of a
down year in the SEC overall. He has the straight line run ability, but right
now, he is of limited use in the passing game, but isn’t quite powerful enough
to make him a perfect power prospect either, making him a man between two
worlds at this stage. He will need coaching to become more of a complete back,
and may have more value as a return man as a rookie than he’d have as a
starting back, making him more of a situational back, like LaMichael James in
San Francisco. If a coaching staff can complete his missing skills, he may be
the best long term investment at RB in the draft.
Ka’Deem Carey, Arizona
5-10, 207
4.53 40 Time
Projected Pick: 55-60
Hardy was by far one of the two
best backs in the PAC-12 over the last two seasons. Carey began his career at
Arizona in 2011, and was a local recruit out of Canyon del Oro High School. In
2011, Carey rushed 91 times for 425 yards and six scores, while averaging 4.67
yards per carry. Carey blew up big
time in 2012, when he rushed for
1929 yards and 23 TDs on 303 carries, and averaged 6.37 yards per touch in 13
games. Carey hit it big again in 2013, rushing for 1885 yards on 349 carries.
Carey scored 19 TDs on the ground, and averaged 5.4 yards per carry on the
season in 12 games.
Pros: Carey is the first true foundation back in this class, as he
comes from an offense that is more capable of spread tendencies, while not
forgoing the ability to become a true power back. Carey has a slight build, but
plays with more power than someone of his body type should be capable of. He
has the makings of a three down back on the next level, and doesn’t seem to
break down late in games. He can hit the hole decisively, and can show burst
coming through the other side. Has the ability to shake off defenders, and looks
a defender off with his open field mechanics. Has fluid pass catching ability
not seen in the first two backs of this class, and is an effective option out
of the backfield or in the slot in motion. Solid pass blocking ability, and is
credible picking up blitzes.
Cons: Carey has some serious character issues, and has had numerous
off-field issues that will affect his draft stock. Carey has an upright running
style that leaves him prone to extra hits, and can drop the football on
occasion. Carey does not have elite size, and his speed is a bit on the average
side. He does not have an extra burst in the open field, so he can be caught
from behind. Carey is athletic enough, and has enough skills to be a solid
starter, but does he have that extra skill set to make him truly elite? No.
Final Grade: B…Could have been an A, but off-field issues, and
lacking elite speed will cost him.
Final assessment: Carey is probably the best RB in this class
overall, but has enough issues to concern an NFL franchise. He has to show that
his character issues can be resolved, and will be. He has to show enough talent
to prove that he can be a three down back. Carey can be impressive in any
system, but he has some work to do.
Bishop Sankey, Washington
5-10, 203
4.49 40 Time
Projected Pick: 60-65
Bishop Sankey finished right
behind Ka’Deem Carey in the PAC-12 rushing race overall during their time in
college, and Sankey will go down as one of the all-time greats in a Husky
uniform. Sankey came to the Huskies out of Spokane and Gonzaga Prep in 2011,
when he carried just 28 times for 187 yards and one score, but he showed
flashes by averaging 6.68 yards per carry in 12 games. In 2012, Sankey’s career
took off, when he carried 289 times for 1439 yards and 16 TDs, while averaging
4.98 yards per carry and 110.69 yards per game. Sankey came into 2013, and
carried 327 times for a rousing 1870 yards and 20 scores on the ground, while
averaging 5.72 yards per carry, and 143.85 yards per game. He proved that he
could be an every down back by averaging 25.15 carries per game.
Pros: Shows great burst through the hole, and has discipline when
choosing his lanes. Follows blocks like a pro. Shows fluid body skills when
shifting out of tackles and evading hits, and can run in tight spaces. Runs
with power and agility, and shows a nice bit of quickness. Has shown some nice
skill as a pass catcher out of the backfield, and can slide out in motion as a
third down slot receiver, where he can beat safeties and linebackers who shift
to cover. Very nice pass blocker on passing downs. Shows nice technique. Sankey
was a team captain and has solid leadership qualities in the field.
Cons: Decent, but not elite size for an every down back. He can be
exposed to fumbles by running upright and doesn’t always keep his body under
control in traffic. While he has been an every down back, he has had a ton of
carries applied to him, and has had some knee injuries to deal with on
occasion, especially as a freshman. He has shown solid recovery since then, but
the questions as to the soundness of the knee must be asked.
Final Grade: B
Final Assessment: Sankey is the darkhorse back in this draft class,
and could be better than his predecessors in the rankings. Being that I rank
players on this list by averages of scouting and write ups other than my own,
if it were my call to make, I may draft Sankey above the others due to his
intangibles. Sankey is a complete back, and the only thing that scares anyone
about him is the early knee injury and the wear and tear, as Washington was
very dependent on him during his stay there. I like Sankey an awful lot, and he
should have a solid career if used in the right system. He is not a full time
power back, but he can be a nice three down back in a spread system.
Jeremy Hill, LSU
6-1, 235
4.56 40 Time
Projected Pick: 70-75
Hill redshirted, and bolted school
after his redshirt sophomore season in 2013. In 2012, Hill rushed for 755 yards
on3 142 carries, averaging 5.32 yards per carry. Hill scored 12 times during
his redshirt freshman season, but only averaged 68.64 yards per game. In his
redshirt sophomore season, Hill rushed for 1401 yards on 203 carries, and
scored 16 times, and averaged 6.9 yards per carry. He increased his yards per
game average to 116.75 per game.
Pros: Has virtually the lowest mileage on his body of anyone in the
draft, as he has only touched the football 345 times in two years, and bolted
school after just his sophomore season. Hill has what I consider elite power
back size, and may be one of the more impressive physical backs available. Runs
with power, and rarely goes down on the first hit. Hits the hole with power,
and is solid in identifying cut lanes. He looks like a receiver on passing
downs, and can pick up gains in the flats. Solid football IQ.
Cons: Hill is a disciplinary train wreck, so much so that he wrote
a letter to all 32 NFL teams pleading his case that he is a changed man, which
has yet to be determined from sources that have no horse in the race with him.
He was never really a full time starter, and played as part of a rotation of
backs at LSU. Will not avoid hits at times, runs upright, and has a tendency to
fumble. Is not a natural tackle breaker, and gets knocked around easily despite
his size. Not a good pass blocker. When he was busted for assault in 2013
(which he plead guilty to), he was already on probation for sex with a minor.
Obviously, he makes poor choices in life, something that may be more engaged
when money comes into play.
Final Grade: D-
Final Assessment: Hill has some skills, but I wouldn’t touch this
guy with Jerry Jones’ money. The character stuff is always a pass for me,
because teams with character issue guys don’t tend to be very cohesive football
teams. The Patriots may be the only team in the NFL that can grab a character
guy and make him behave, but even that old fact doesn’t always hold true
anymore. I would completely pass on this clown and move on to someone else,
because this guy not only has made poor character choices in his life, they
were huge breakdowns in his moral compass, which is something that he might not
even have.
Charles Sims, West Virginia
6-0, 214
4.54 40 Time
Projected Pick: 90-95
Sims played at Houston for three
seasons before transferring to West Virginia for his final season in 2013.
Strangely enough, 2013 was the only season that Sims broke 1000 yards, and he
barely did so, rushing for 1095 yards on 208 carries, and scored 11 TDs. He
averaged 17.33 carries per game, and 5.26 yards per carry. In his three seasons
at Houston, Sims never broke 1000 yards. He rushed for 698 yards in 2009, 821
yards in 2010, and 846 yards in 2012, all fairly average numbers across the
board.
Pros: Sims has a good deal of experience in spread offenses, as
both Houston and WVU have played in that system. Sims has a solid build for an
NFL back, and has decent open field acceleration. Always looking for cut lanes,
and is constantly looking up field for space and blocks. He’s a solid receiver
out of the backfield, especially in a spread offense. Sims can line up wide or
in the slot, and runs routes like a wide receiver. He has a good understanding
of how the passing game works for a back as a receiver. Good pass blocker.
Cons: Not a plug and play guy for any offense. Sims really only
works for a team running a spread offense. He doesn’t run low, and by running
tall, he can be a target for big hits. He isn’t a real every down running back,
and never averaged more than 17 carries per game over an entire season. He may
be a solid 3rd down guy on passing downs, but he will never be a
full time, three down back. Sims was converted from WR to RB at Houston, and
has never fully developed into a true RB, and still plays more like a receiver,
which is where most of his strengths lie.
Final Grade: D+
Final Assessment: Sims isn’t my kind of RB, but scouting services
like him, which is why we have him here. Sims is a spread back at best, and
could never be a RB in a more traditional offense. I feel that his place is on
3rd downs as a receiver out of the backfield, and maybe on special
teams. He has limited value at best.
DeVonta Freeman, Florida State
5-8, 206
4.58 40 Time
Projected Pick: 85-90
Freeman was a three year player at
Florida State. He carried for 579 yards in 2011, 660 yards in 2012, and then
finally broke the 1000 yard barrier in 2013, rushing for 1016 yards, and
managed to score 14 TDs. He averaged 5.87 yards per carry, but only averaged
72.57 yards per game, which was by far a career high.
Pros: Runs strong and has a compact build. Hits the hole with power
and has enough elusiveness to make defenders miss. He can run hard, and take on
tacklers. Never afraid to drop his pads and power forward in traffic.
Understands how to follow his blocks, and shows patience when waiting for plays
to set up. Freeman is a decent blocker on passing downs, and can get out on
pass plays and block downfield.
Cons: Freeman has been limited on experience, and maxed out at
12.36 carries per game for a career high in 2012. He averaged a very pedestrian
72.57 yards per game, which was almost 30 yards higher than his average in 2011
and 2012. That’s not great. He has never been a full time back, and was more of
a committee guy. While his weight is decent, his overall size is not, and his frame
seems maxed out. For a smaller guy, he doesn’t have a ton of speed to make up
for his lack of overall size. He runs in a single gear, and doesn’t have any
real acceleration ability.
Final Grade: D
Final Assessment: Freeman never should have come out of school
after his junior season. He has never been a star back, so I am not sure what
really gives him the idea that he is worthy of a move to the NFL, where he will
be lucky to make a roster, and actually stick. For a guy who has never averaged
even 13 carries per game over a full season, I have to question his over
inflated sense of self to have made such a decision, and I have to ask myself
the sanity of those around him to guide him in this direction. Freeman has bust
written all over him.
Lache Seastrunk, Baylor
5-9, 201
4.51 40 Time
Projected Pick: 100-105
Seastrunk started his career at
Oregon, but after he was tied to scam artist and self-styled college football
consultant Willie Lyles (who was investigated by the NCAA for selling information
on recruits to Oregon) he bailed out and transferred to Baylor. He used the age
old excuse that he wanted to be closer to home, but it seems more likely that
Oregon invited him to find a new home. Seastrunk only played two seasons at
Baylor after transferring. He rushed for 1012 yards in 2012, and 1177 yards in
2013. He carried the ball 158 times in 2013 and 131 in 2012. Seastrunk’s best
carries per game number came in 2013 at 14.36 per season.
Pros: Seastrunk can run with the wind despite a poor time at the
combine. He is an excellent athlete, and looks like a track star. Seastrunk can
hit the hole with power, and has solid shiftiness in the open field. Once
Seastrunk gets out into the open field. He can pull away.
Cons: Seastrunk lacks experience, having played just two seasons,
and never carrying more than just over 14 times per game over two full seasons.
He doesn’t have great vision, and will not do a great job at creating when
lanes close down. He has limited downfield vision, and spends too much time as
a shrine game (east-west) back. He had good, but not great numbers at Baylor,
when the Big 12 is not exactly loaded with premier defenses. He was the best of
a largely average group of backs in the Big 12 in 2013.
Final Grade: D
Final Assessment: Had some questionable affiliations during his
collegiate career. He could have been so much better than he was, but played
more like an elite athlete than an elite running back. He came out of school
early because he had absolutely no desire to be a student athlete, and has
always followed the money. Once again, Seastrunk looks like a guy who has
inconsistent ability, and probably thinks that he is better than he is. He has
too much to learn, and if I am an NFL GM or coaching staff, I really don’t have
enough time to develop him.
Terrence West, Towson
5-9, 225
4.54 40 Time
Projected Pick: 115-120
West was a three year player for
Towson, and was part of an amazing rejuvenation project at a program that was
at the bottom of the Colonial Athletic Association for years, culminating in an
FCS Championship Game appearance in 2013, where the Tigers fell to North Dakota
State. After attending a military academy, West walked on at Towson after
seeking a spot around the ACC. As a freshman in 2011, he rushed for 1296 yards
and an astounding 29 TDs, and earned a scholarship. In 2012, he rushed for 1046
yards and 14 TDs, while only playing in 10 games. In 2013, West really exploded
by rushing for 2519 yards in 16 games, averaging 157.4 yards per game, and
powered forward for a whopping 41 TDs. He averaged 6.1 yards per carry during
the 2013 season as well, earning him the reputation as a front line starting
back.
Pros: West is built like a bowling ball power back, and runs like
one as well. West has very good footwork, and keeps them churning in traffic.
One of the better runners in traffic in this class. West is a solid blocker in
the passing game, and has one hell of a motor. West was central cog in one of
the best program turn around stories in FCS history. He can outright score like
a mad man, having piled up 84 TDs in three seasons. What gives West his rep as
a power back is that he never averaged fewer than 5.4 yards per carry in his
career. Had West attended a bigger school, he would have been rated far higher
in this class. West is one of the best FCS backs to come out in years.
Cons: West does not have elite speed, and has to make up for it
with strength and power. The FCS status may turn someone off to him, but that
may be an overrated issue. It still has to be discussed, as he buried less
talented FCS opponents. West will not likely be a home run threat for long runs
from scrimmage.
Final Grade: B
Final Assessment: If West had played at Clemson or Maryland (he had
sought a spot at both schools), and had elite speed, he may be the best back in
this class. He is certainly underrated, and if teams to avoid him because of
Towson’s FCS status, they’d be making a huge mistake. West is a traditional
power back, and could be a huge surprise as a rookie. I look forward to seeing
West smash the doubters out there.
Andre Williams, Boston College
5-11, 230
4.56 40 Time
Projected Pick: 125-130
Williams was a four year player at
BC, and finished off his career in 013 with a huge bang. In 2010, Williams
rushed for 461 yards, and increased marginally in 2011 to hit 517. In 2012,
Williams rushed for 584 yards. Williams finally arrived in 2013, as he rushed
for a nation leading 2177 yards in 13 games, and scored 18 times, while
averaging 167.5 yards per contest, and 6.1 yards per carry.
Pros: Williams exploded in 2013, and finally showed that he could
be an every down power guy, when he rushed 355 times on the year. He is a true
power back, and is constantly moving forward rather than laterally, and keeps
good balance in traffic and while running through lanes. Williams can take a
few hits, and power through tackles.
Cons: Williams doesn’t have elite speed. While he did have an
amazing season in 2013, he was subpar for three full years before. Why did it
take so long for him to arrive? Williams has some health concerns, and takes
too many hits, leading to injury concerns. He does not condense his body,
leading to more big hits. Williams is absolutely non-existent as a threat in
the passing game, and never caught a single pass in 2013, and has a grand total
of ten career receptions at BC.
Final Grade: C-
Final Assessment: Despite what was an amazing 2013, Williams didn’t
do enough over his entire career to entice me, and seems a bit like a one hit
wonder who lacks diversity in skill sets. He is a bit of a one trick pony who
is always on the verge of breaking a hoof. He missed games in 2011 and 2012,
and it has to be a concern. Williams is a two down back, and has to get the
hell off of the field on third downs, as he brings no value to the field in
long yard situations on second and third downs.
The Next Group
Roderick McDowell, Clemson
Came on strong in 2013, but only
had one season of real productivity.
James Wilder, Jr., Florida State
Big committee back who has never
been a star. Wilder brings little of
value to the table.
Jerome Smith, Syracuse
Regressed in 2013 after a decent
2012 campaign. Has some skill set, but not a great prospect.
Storm Johnson, UCF
Probably the best of the second
tier backs, he rushed for 14 TDs in a banner season for UCF in 2013.
James White, Wisconsin
White is an underrated power back
who ran well despite always being in a committee, which was just Wisconsin’s
system.
Glasco Martin, Baylor
Martin is simply a special teamer,
who has never had a 1000 yard season. Still, he shared the load with Seastrunk.
Damien Williams, Oklahoma
JC star at Arizona Western, but
never lived up to his hype at OU.
Darren Reaves, UAB
Reaves scored 25 TDs in two
seasons for a terrible team. One of the lone bright spots for the Blazers.
David Fluellen, Toledo
Fluellen isn’t elite, but is
productive, as he averaged over 100 yards per game over final two seasons, and
scored 25 times.
Kapri Bibbs, Colorado State
Scored 31 times in his lone season
at CSU after transferring from Snow College. Rushed for 1741 yards that season
as well. Missed 2012 season.
Adam Muema, San Diego State
Completely undraftable, and a
character disaster after walking out of the combine because God told him to.
Found in his hotel room unresponsive, and has completely self destructed during
the post season workout period. Was once a top 15 RB prospect.
Marion Grice, Arizona State
Scored 25 times in two seasons
after transferring from Blinn College. A solid utility back, but will never be
a feature player.
De’Anthony Thomas, Oregon
Has never really adjusted to being
a full time RB, but is one of the fastest players I have ever seen. Kick return
beast, and utility back extraordinaire. More athlete than RB.
Silas Redd, USC
Once a top prospect, Redd really
slid after leaving Penn State for USC, and has health concerns. Always banged
up.
Tyler Gaffney, Stanford
When finally given the chance to
be a primary back, he exploded for over 1700 yards. Gaffney had a tremendous
combine performance, and is supremely underrated. He could make someone very
happy in the mid rounds.
LaDarius Perkins, Mississippi State
Perkins productivity fell off by
almost 50% in 2013. Not sure how much value he has, but none for me.
Henry Josey, Missouri
A small back with a shredded knee,
Josey has too many questions to be drafted. He did come back strong in 2013,
rushing for 111.1 yards per game.
Rajion Neal, Tennessee
Came on strong in 2013, but has a
fumbling issue. That’s a problem.
Antonio Andrews, Western Kentucky
Has rushed for over 3400 yards and
27 TDs since taking over for Bobby Rainey. He’d get better reviews if he didn’t
fumble like he tends to do.
Lorenzo Taliaferro, Coastal Carolina
Ran for 1742 yards and 27 TDs in
2013, but is limited on experience. Could be a sleeper from a strong FCS program.
Tim Flanders, Sam Houston State
Flanders ran for 4700 yards and 53
yards the last three seasons during a strong run at the FCS program. Will crack
a team with strong special teams play.
Isaiah Crowell, Alabama State
30 TDs in the last two seasons,
but topped out at 1121 yards in his only 1000+ yard season. Could be just
tapping his potential, however.
Jerrick McKinnon, Georgia Southern
He dominated the combine after rushing
for over 2800 yards and 32 TDs over the last two seasons. McKinnon was a former
veer QB who is just really learning to be a RB. The biggest enigma at RB in
this draft class. Intriguing prospect.
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