With the NFL Draft upon us this week, we can now start to take some time to analyze the upcoming 2018 college football season. I start with looking at schedules, conference by conference, and looking at win totals that I have set for each team. I begin with the AAC, in alphabetical order:
Cincinnati Bearcats
The non-conference schedule is not a wood chipper for UC this season. Wins should come against Alabama A&M and Miami (Ohio), but I do project losses against UCLA in the opener, and Ohio in the non con finale.
Where trouble sets in, is during AAC play, where I only can project wins against U Conn in the conference opener, and against East Carolina in the season finale. I project losses at home to Tulane, Navy, and USF, while I see road losses to U Conn, Temple, SMU, and UCF.
Win Total: Four wins projected
East Carolina Pirates
I have such little hope for ECU until they finally admit they made a mistake in hiring Scotty Montgomery. I project one lone non con win over North Carolina A&T in the season opener, but that will be no lock. I project losses to North Carolina and Old Dominion on the road, and to Virginia Tech on the road as well.
In AAC play, I project road losses to USF, Temple, and Tulane, and Cincinnati while I project home losses to UCF, Houston and Memphis.I will project a home win over U Conn.
Win Total: Two wins projected
Houston Cougars
Houston under performed in 2017, and will be looking for a rebound in year two under Major Applewhite.
I project non con wins over Rice, Texas Tech, and Texas Southern, and will give a slight edge to the Cougars at home over Kevin Sumlin and the Arizona Wildcats.
In AAC play, I can project home wins over Tulsa, Temple, and Tulane, while projecting road wins over East Carolina and Memphis. I Project conference losses against Navy, USF, and SMU.
Win Total: Nine wins projected
Memphis Tigers
With some heavy personnel losses this season, Memphis is primed to take just a step back in 2018, but Mike Norvell could have some things up his sleeve heading into fall camp.
I project non con wins over Mercer, Georgia State, and South Alabama, with a loss coming against Missouri on the road.
In AAC play, I project win over Tulane, U Conn, East Carolina, and Tulsa, with losses projected against Navy, UCF, SMU, and Houston.
Win Total: Seven wins projected
Navy Midshipmen
Again, Navy skidded a bit last season, and they look to bounce back in 2018. I project wins in non con play over Hawaii, Lehigh, and Air Force. I also project a snapping of Army's two game win streak in the series. I do project a non con loss to Notre Dame, putting Navy at 4-1 in non con play.
In AAC play, I project wins over Memphis, Temple, Houston, Cincinnati, Tulsa, and Tulane. I project losses to SMU and UCF.
Win Total: Ten wins projected
SMU Mustangs
The Sonny Dykes era began in a terrible bowl loss for the Mustangs, but a bounce back is in order to a degree in 2018.
I see a 2-2 non con run with wins over North Texas and Houston Baptist, but losses to TCU and Michigan.
In AAC play, I project wins over Navy, Tulane, Cincinnati, U Conn, Memphis and Tulsa. I project losses to UCF and Houston.
Win Total: Eight wins projected
Temple Owls
Geoff Collins got his era started as head coach last season to mixed results. With five games in September, it will be imperative to get off to a fast start.
Temple should find wins against Villanova, Buffalo, and Tulsa at home that first month, while losses could come against Maryland and Boston College on the road.
There are just three games in October, with a bye week to close out the month. Home should be friendly that month as well with wins projected against East Carolina and Cincinnati, while I will project a road loss to Navy.
The final month of November will tell the tale for Temple, and it could be a tough month, I project the Owls to start the month off at 0-3 with losses to UCF and Houston on the road, and a loss to USF at home. Temple should be able to rebound to finish the month with a win at U Conn.
Win Total: Six wins projected
Tulane Green Wave
Tulane should be an interesting team in year three under Willie Fritz. This is a year where they should be pushing for a bowl bid.
There are five games on the bill between August 30th and the end of September. I project an opening loss to Wake Forest, followed by wins over Nicholls State and UAB, and losses to Ohio State and Memphis to close out with a 2-3 start.
Tulane has three dates in October, and could get a rebound with wins over Cincinnati and Tulsa, but a loss could come to SMU, which would lead to a 4-4 record with everything on the line heading into November.
November is a meat grinder, and upsets will have to happen to get bowl eligible, as I project losses to USF, Houston, and Navy, with the lone projected win coming on 11/10 against East Carolina.
Win Total: Five wins projected
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
There is no other way to describe 2017 than it being a train wreck. With two wins last season, Tulsa will be scrambling to find their place in the AAC race in 2018, and it could be a tough slog.
There are four games in September, with an opening win over Central Arkansas likely. Tulsa could then peel off three straight losses to Texas, Arkansas State, and Temple to close out the first month at 1-3.
There are four October dates, and things do not get any easier for Tulsa. I project a winless month with losses coming against Houston, USF, Arkansas, and Tulane.
A second win for the season is possible to start the final month, with U Conn coming to town to open November. Tulsa then should be a road dog the next two weeks with likely losses to Memphis and Navy, and a home loss to could wrap the season against SMU.
Win Total: Two wins projected
UCF Knights
The magic of 2017 has moved on, as has the coaching staff, but there is still plenty of potential left for new head coach Josh Heupel and QB McKenzie Melton.
UCF has five games on the docket in the opening month, and they should be favored to win against U Conn in the opener, followed by likely wins over South Carolina State, North Carolina, FAU, and Pitt. FAU is the one game worth watching in that opening frame, as the Owls will be looking to pull some magic of their own.
In October, UCF will have three games lined up. Again, the Knights should be favored in all three, with projected wins against SMU at home, and Memphis and East Carolina on the road.
November will be the great test for the Knights, as they should be favored in all four games once again with wins over Temple, Navy, Cincinnati, and USF projected, but watch out for those games against Navy and USF.
Win Total: 12 wins projected
U Conn Huskies
Round two of the Randy Edsall era has not been a fun watch, and things could be dicey once again in 2018.
The Huskies should have a mixed bag in the opening month with five games on the schedule. I project losses to UCF and Boise State to open the year, but then a win should come against Rhode Island in game three. I see a loss to Syracuse, before the Huskies have a shot against Cincinnati in the finale, but I could see a loss coming there as well.
October has a three game set, with a lone win coming against U Mass in the final game of the month. I project losses to Memphis and USF.
U Conn could only be favored in a single game in November as well, with a projected win against East Carolina, but losses should come against Tulsa, East Carolina, and Temple.
Win Total: Three wins projected
USF Bulls
The Bulls should have an interesting year in season two under Charlie Strong, and could push UCF and Navy as AAC favorites in 2018.
There are four games to open the season in September for the Bulls, and they should be projected to win games against Elon, Illinois, and East Carolina. I will narrowly project a loss to Georgia Tech, but I am thinking of that more as a swing game than anything.
There are four games in October, with wins projected against U Mass and Tulsa on the road, and U Conn at home. There is a trip up game to close the month against Houston on the road, where I could see some road fatigue slipping in, so I will call the Cougars a narrow favorite for now.
November presents a case for a strong close for the Bulls, with projected wins against Tulane at home, and Cincinnati and Temple on the road. I project a season ending loss to UCF, but agains, USF could challenge there.
Win Total: Nine wins projected
Final Win Totals Projected For Each Team
Cincinnati 4
East Carolina 2
Houston 9
Memphis 7
Navy 10
SMU 8
Temple 6
Tulane 5
Tulsa 2
UCF 12
U Conn 3
USF 9
Projected Bowl Teams (6): Houston, Memphis, Navy, SMU, Temple, UCF, USF
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