2018 NFL Draft Round One Mock

While I am not normally a fan of mock drafts, simply because there are so many fluid situations leading into and on draft day itself. I will attempt to give you the best insight I have on the draft next week, based on the information that I have now, one week out. Here we go...

1. Browns: QB Sam Darnold, USC
During and after his pro day, it was fairly apparent that  owner Jimmy Haslem had completely zeroed on on Darnold, as he attended the pro day personally, and spent a good deal of that day with Darnold and his parents. It would not surprise me to see that a deal has already been worked out, and is just short of a signature on the line. This fits an absolute need for the Browns, and pretty much falls in line with everything I have been told.
My Take On the Pick: I am sold that this is probably the right thing to do for the Browns, and allows Darnold to be an all-in starter in 2019 after playing behind Tyrod Taylor for all of, or most of 2018.

2. Giants: RB Saquon Barkley, Penn State
Now that the Giants have gone all-in with Eli Manning again, QB is much less a pressing need than it may have been last year. Davis Webb is not the answer for the Giants, but with Manning fully back in the saddle, that is not as much an issue. Now you have to give Manning some weapons to play with, and the best overall graded prospect in the draft happens to be a RB with a ton of versatility.
My Take: Barkley is the top graded prospect in this draft, by far, and gives the Giants a major weapon in both the run and pass game. Barkley fits the bill, even if he does not fit the want of the fan base.

3. Jets: QB Josh Rosen, UCLA
I still do not believe that Rosen will be anything more than a mid-level QB in the NFL, as his game is full of flaws as much as it s filled with hyperbole that the sports media conglomerate wants to throw at him. I just cannot see the Jets waiting to see him fall to the Bills, or even the Patriots with all the rumors swirling of them trading up (which I still do not see them doing). Rosen fits a listed team need, but with their free agent signings, the need does not seem as dire. I can also see the Jets drafting Bradley Chubb here as well, but it seems that the percentages are higher in the direction of Rosen.
My Take: I don't love the pick, personally, but could see the rationale of them going that way regardless. The Jets could also go another way and build their defense with Tremaine Edmunds here, but I see Rosen as too much of a carrot to dangle.

4. Browns: OG Quentin Nelson
With Joe Thomas retiring, the Browns have a need to replace some tenaciousness on the line, and Nelson brings all of that. He is the second highest graded prospect in this draft, and everything on film looks as advertised. The best offensive lineman of the draft goes to the team with probably the worst line in the league.
My Take: Nelson starts to repair the issues that the Browns have not been able to get over in a long time, and that is bad line play. With Darnold and Nelson in play, the Browns could be building an offense that can start to play with anyone over the next few seasons. Do not be shocked, as a plan B, if the Browns trade this pick down, but I do not see that being a priority right now.

5. Broncos: QB Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
The QB spot is not listed as an absolute team need after the signing of Case Keenum, but you have to prepare yourself for the issue of Keenum having been a one year wonder with the Vikings last season. Mayfield would be listed as the QB of the future while developing behind Keenum until needed. This pick makes exceptional sense, especially if Nelson and Barkley are already off the board at this point.
My Take: I see Mayfield as the best QB in this class, even if he gets taken behind Rosen and Darnold. Having Keenum hold the reins until Mayfield is ready is the perfect solution to issues that the position has had in Denver for far too long.

6. Colts: DE Bradley Chubb, NC State
The Colts have a ton of options at this spot, because almost all of their need positions and players could still be on the board when they get up to make their pick. Chubb is the best defensive lineman in this draft, and fits a major need for a team that has been starved of edge rush ability.
My Take: Chubb would be a perfect fit for this spot for the Colts, but if Roquan Smith were there, he could fit as well. As could Courtland Sutton or Calvin Ridley at WR, if you wanted to bolster the offense instead. It's a perfect spot for the Colts to be in.

7. Buccaneers: S Derwin James, Florida State
The Bucs added JPP from the Giants to remedy need at the DE position, and Brent Grimes returns at CB for another year. With those needs addressed, Safety became the primary position of need to be filled early, and one of the best defenders in the draft happens to be sitting in prime position for the Bucs.
My Take: James makes perfect sense for the Bucs at this spot, because they should know him well, as he won't have far to travel to report. James fits a primary need, is one of the best graded prospects in this draft, and can flat out play the game.

8. Bears: ILB Tremaine Edmunds, Virginia Tech
The Bears have need on the defensive side of the football, with three of four primary needs coming on that side of the football. Edmunds is the highest graded remaining player left on the board here, so drafting him should make plenty of sense.
My Take: The Bears could go either LB or CB here, and if they do no have access to Edmunds, they go with Denzel Ward of Ohio State, as Derwin James won't slide this far. If Edmunds is there, they have to go with him over Roquan Smith, as Edmunds has more value as far as versatility goes.

9. 49ers: WR Calvin Ridley, Alabama
The Niners have talked about trading up, but if they stay where they are, some interesting options could flow down to them. If the Colts do not move on Ridley, he falls to the Niners in almost every simulation we look at.
My Take: Kyle Shanahan will want to add some toys for his new QB Jimmy G. Ridley is the perfect addition if he falls to them here. If Ridley does not fall, Mnkah Fitzpatrick is sitting there to help the defense. No real need to move around for the Niners.

10. Raiders: LB Roquan Smith, Georgia
The Raiders will love the play of Smith to pair with Khalil Mack at LB. Smith was one of the more productive players at LB in college football last season, and his intensity would be a perfect fit.
My Take: Smith is probably my overall favorite LB in this class, even more so than Edmunds. Bringing his game to the middle of the defense makes every bit of sense and fit. If they cannot get him here, they could go with Vita Vea at DT to shore up the middle of the D line.

11. Dolphins: DT Da'Ron Payne, Alabama
Miami certainly has needs on offense, but the immediate need is on the defensive side of the football, and with Suh gone to the Rams, filling his immense hole will fall to the best prospect on the board that fits, and that would be Payne.
My Take: A few things could happen here. The Dolphins, being ever unpredictable by way of general incompetence, could stick with the plan of rebuilding their defense with Payne, Vea Vita, or Minkah Fitzpatrick, or they could go another way and take Denzel Ward, or draft a QB in Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. This is a wide open situation.

12. Bills: QB Josh Allen, Wyoming
The Bills desperately want to move up and grab Josh Rosen early, but I really don't see anyone acting as an interested trading partner to make that happen. Allen is not the answer right now, and would almost have to be if AJ McCarron is not the right fit or answer, and that is possible.
My Take: The Bills have almost forced themselves into a corner with needing to take a QB here, because they have such little overall ability at the position right now. They would probably be OK with taking Minkah Fitzpatrick here, but, the fan base will erupt if they don't get one of the sought after QBs in this draft.

13. Redskins: DT Vita Vea, Washington
The Redskins could use the versatility and intensity of a new DT for their defensive front, and Vita Vea is that guy for this spot. He is the best remaining DL prospect on the boards at this point of the mock, and he fits a primary listed need perfectly. He gives the Skins the needed push from the interior line, and could line up as a mismatch on the outside as well.
My Take: Washington needs help on both sides of the football, but with Alex Smith and Kevin Hogan on the roster, QB can hold off for a round or two. If they go LB, Leighton Vander Esch could be a solid pick here, or if they address CB, Denzel Ward could still be available.

14. Packers: CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State
Despite drafting Kevin King a year ago, the CB spot is still problematic for the Packers, and if you want the highest graded prospect on the board at this spot, he is it. You have two rather dynamic, young corners if they make this move, and will have them for the long term as well.
My Take: Again, the Packers would do well to stay put at 14 as they should have a small buffet of picks to choose from. If they wanted to go in another direction, Minkah Fitzpatrick fits this need as well, and I could see him as a Packer as well. If they go pass rush help, Harold Landry of Boston College fits here. Courtland Sutton could provide them receiver help immediately, and Mike McGlinchey would fit as well, but would be more of a reach for help at RT.

15. Cardinals: CB/S Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama
If Derwin James is my favorite DB in the draft, Fitzpatrick fits right behind him. They Cardinals need a QB, but anyone who is left would be a reach here, and Lamar Jackson does not fit the style of play. They need a replacement for the eventual retirement of Larry Fitzgerald, but that is not a first round need. With Tyronn Matthieu gone, this is the biggest need they have, and Fitzgerald gives you help at either Corner or Safety. He is the answer.
My Take: Fitzpatrick, if he falls this far, would be the perfect solution to a large problem in pass defense for the Cardinals. They can find a replacement for Bradford at QB and Fitzgerald at WR later, and there should be plenty of O line help to be found in rounds two and three as well.

16. Ravens: LB Leighton Vander Esch
The Ravens have shored up some immediate need by signing RG3 as a backup to Flacco at QB, and have also signed WR Michael Crabtree as another weapon in the passing game, which was much needed. Look for the Ravens to address those areas later in the draft as well. The highest rated need filler for the Ravens left on our mock board here is the wonderfully talented LB from Boise State, who was one of the most productive defensive players in the nation in 2017, and fits an immediate need.
My Take: The Ravens can look for line, QB, and WR help later on and still make out well. Vander Esch should be available here, and they need a play maker like him to bring some fear back into opponents from that side of the field. I can only imagine Vander Esch working out and getting some help from retired legend Ray Lewis. That would be something to see.

17. Chargers: DT Taven Bryan, Florida
With Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram set on the edge, the Chargers need more help in the middle of their line, and they could get an athletic and fierce animal in Bryan here in this spot. He may still be a bit of a work in progress, but he could be a star in the coming years, and could be a key piece in what could be one of the best D lines in the league down the road.
My Take: The Chargers are in a situation that this player has to fall into position here, because based on other primary needs listed, and Bryan being gone, they would have to trade down or make a long reach to get another player that fits their needs at this spot. They could get Rashaan Evans to help at LB, but addressing the middle of their line makes more sense, and they can address other listed needs later on.

18. Seahawks: DE/OLB Harold Landry, Boston College
When Michael Bennett was traded, there were no immediate answers to replace him with. The Seahawks have several areas of extreme need, but the player who falls here, and fits a major need best, is one of the best pass rushing players in this class, and that is Landry.
My Take: Landry fills the most major hole on defense for the Seahawks, but they have more needs that are immediate than many other teams in the league, and with the current roster, I don't see hoow they are a playoff team. Landry helps that cause on defense, but there are needs in the secondary, on the line, and at TE as well.

19. Cowboys: WR Courtland Sutton, SMU
This would be a major reach pick here, but after dumping Dez Bryant, I don't see where a choice to be made is. They have to address their need here, even if Sutton is rated as the 42nd best prospect. Antonio Callaway gets a higher overall grade based on game skills, but he has a ton of red flags that most would be smart to avoid.
My Take: Like the Bills, the Cowboys have pigeon holed themselves here after dumping Bryant with no clear answer as a replacement. Sutton fits the bill, is a hometown guy out of SMU, and pretty much gives a weapon to Dak Prescott that he can actually work with on and off the field. That was not a part of the Bryant/Prescott relationship, and was a major reason that Bryant got dumped.

20. Lions: Marcus Davenport, UTSA
People are all over the place on this prospect, but at the end of the day, Davenport fits a major need for the Lions, as they need big time help off the edge, and Davenport clearly fills that role.
My Take: If they decide to improve play on the line, look for UTEP OG Will Hernandez, or Georgia's Isaiah Wynn as options, or they could go with Derrius Guice or Ronald Jones at RB. All fit need, and all could fit decently at this pick.

21. Bengals: OG Will Hernandez, UTEP
If Hernandez does not go to the Lions, he could absolutely fall to the Bengals, and is the second best guard prospect after Nelson. You may not have heard much about him in college, but he is a rock solid pick for a team that needs interior blocking after averaging just 3.6 yards per carry last season.
My Take: I do not hesitate on this pick. Hernandez is a monster home run for the Bengals if they can get him, and he will likely be a star on the line for years to come. This would be a pick that should be celebrated.

22. Bills: OG/C Isaiah Wynn, Georgia
Cordy Glenn and Eric Wood are both gone, and now that they would have grabbed their QB of the future, building the line becomes a major need. Wynn has talent to play at any spot on the line, but fits best at Guard for now, and could be a starter for years.
My Take: Again, the Bills absolutely have to make this happen. If they can somehow get Hernandez, even better, but line is need based on letting guys go with no clear answers as replacements.

23. Patriots: S Justin Reid, Stanford
The Patriots are highly unlikely to trade their two first round picks, because they just don't do that. They will wait for the right fit, and they were exposed in the secondary against the Eagles in the Super Bowl. Reid will try to fit in and bolster a secondary that is full of holes.
My Take: Yes, the Pats will go QB at some point, but they have to fill immediate need, and that secondary was garbage last season. Reid is a solid fit here, and will help bolster a weak position.

24. Panthers: CB Jaire Alexander, Louisville
The Panthers get a need in the secondary in Alexander, but they could also go with any number of Corners that fall right around his same draft grade. Alexander is a solid fit here, as the Panthers try to bolster their pass defense.
My Take: The Panthers really need a receiver, but there is no value in taking any of the receivers that are left this high in the process. There are no Safeties on the board graded this highly, either, so that takes that option away. CB, in this spot, clearly makes the most sense.

25. Titans: DT Maurice Hurst, Michigan
While the Titans would love to find a play maker at WR here, there is not one to be had that fits the draft spot. They have need for depth on the line, and Hurst has value for the Titans in this spot, and is a player who could have immediate impact for them now.
My Take: Do the Titans stay put and draft Hurst, who fits an absolute need, do they reach, or do they trade the pick? There as many questions as answers here, but Hurst would be a solid get in this spot, and fits a need in a big way with a big time player.

26. Falcons: TE Mike Gesicki, Penn State
The Falcons have talked about adding more play making weapons in this draft to help Matt Ryan and Julio Jones become more effective, and Gesicki fits the mold of a play making, pass catching TE that can be a major force on offense. He fits what they are looking for here.
My Take: Gesicki is one of the premier pass catching TEs in a draft close with several to offer. He adds a whole new dimension to the Falcon offense, and looks like a perfect fit at this point in the first round for this team and their needs.

27. Saints: OLB Rashaan Evans, Alabama
The organization has made no secret of the need to improve their edge rush game, and Evans fits the bill at OLB for the Saints. He is the highest rated player left on the board at this point, fits what they absolutely need, and has the resume to help this team right now.
My Take: I struggled with this pick for the Saints, because they have a few bigger needs, but in the end, Evans fit the best for value, and fits a need that Payton has been getting on about publicly. If they go offense, look for Dallas Goedert, the TE out of South Dakota State to be a major player available here. They could also see an opportunity and make a play for Lamar Jackson as a developmental pick.

28. Steelers: RB Derrius Guice, LSU
With the Le'Veon Bell drama ongoing, it would be wise to draft Guice and send a message that the Steelers will not bow down. They could then work on a contract with leverage behind them, and have an heir apparent down the line to work with.
My Take: The Steelers would consider Evans if the Saints pass up on him, but they have needs at ILB and S, and the value is not here with this pick. They could go Safety as well, where Jesse Bates could make sense. WR is also a need, but again, I question value.

29. Jaguars: OT Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame
The Jags have a serious load of needs for this draft, but the highest value comes at RT in McGlinchey. He is most comfortable playing at that spot, and can be dominant from that position, and the need is absolutely there.
My Take: There are so many directions that they can take here. They could look at Lamar Jackson, they could look at Darius Leonard at OLB, they could trade out. So many things make sense here, but again, we look at value and need, and this fits both.

30. Vikings: OT Kolton Miller, UCLA
After signing Kirk Cousins to a massive pay day, they now have to protect him. The best available lineman available that fits that need is Miller.
My Take: Miller continues to rise in the eyes of personnel people, but I am not sure that I see it. That said, they could also go with Connor Williams of Texas at OG, who grades out just about the same. Don't be surprised if they stick close to home and give Cousins another weapon in Dallas Goedert of South Dakota State as well.

31. Patriots: QB Lamar Jackson, Louisville
I have heard several things, but most of it media driven on which QB could go in this spot, and I just believe that taking Mason Rudolph here would be a waste of an early pick. You need someone who fits the need, and with Rudolph receiving a third round grade, that would be an immense reach, and the Patriots are not stupid.
My Take: Jackson will get time to learn behind Brady, who, going against reports of this week, is not going anywhere. Maybe he can develop into something special, maybe not, but we will have time to find out if he lands with New England, which would be a perfect landing spot for him.

32. Eagles: TE Dallas Goedert, South Dakota State
He is a big time receiving threat, and hey, the FCS thing has worked out well for the Eagles as of late. He gives Carson Wentz or Nick Foles another upgraded play maker who can score.
My Take: I love Goedert, and he fits a need, but don't be shocked if the Eagles go with another FCS player to take care of a major need at LB in Darius Leonard of South Carolina State here.