Wednesday, September 3, 2014

College Football Week One Pass/Fail Report and Week Two Picks

With week one closed out, we now get a chance to evaluate who were the big winners and big losers of the week in our weekly Pass/Fail Report. Let's see who made the biggest gains, and the biggest losses of the week that was:


Pass/Fail Week One


Thursday


It all started with Georgia State, who received a PASS on Wednesday night on the FBS front, as the Panthers won their first game after losing all 12 in 2013. The Panthers trailed FCS member Abilene Christian by nine heading into the final quarter and pulled out a thriller with three seconds on the clock, as the game winning FG sealed the deal in a 38-37 win. Even though GSU should have won by more, despite me picking them to lose, a win is a win in Atlanta these days. Nick Arbuckle also gave the Panthers a QB to lean on while passing for 413 yards and four scores.
We switched to Thursday night, and the season began in earnest with folks in College Station getting a chance to say "Johnny Who?" Kenny Hill got the start for Texas A&M (PASS) and eclipsed Manziel's single game passing record with 511 yards on the night. Hill completed 44/60 passes on the night, shredding South Carolina, who gets a FAIL, as their secondary couldn't stop a herd of starving people from a girl scout cookie table. The Gamecocks, who were supposed to be an SEC title contender, and a player on a national level, now are behind a huge eight ball in SEC play. Mike Evans may be gone for the Aggies, but Malcolm Kennedy's 14 catches for 137 yards eased the pain.
In a low key game, Wake Forest (Fail) started out miserably by picking up just 93 yards of offense in a morbid 17-10 loss to UL-Monroe to kick off Dave Clawson's career. Clawson said it wouldn't be easy turning Wake around, and it seems as if he isn't kidding. Wake still hasn't found a dependable QB, and there may not be one on the roster.
New Mexico State earns a PASS as well, as any time the Aggies get a win, they should get all the credit in the world. Besides, it may be one of their only wins all season, as they took out Cal Poly 28-10 in Las Cruces.
Ole Miss barely gets a PASS, as they led Boise State by a meager 7-6 score heading into the 4th quarter before pulling away for a 35-13 win. Boise State largely gets a FAIL, kicking off Bryan Harsin's era as head coach by largely flubbing the game offensively. Neither team played up to their overall ability in Atlanta.
More than give Rutgers an outright PASS, I give Washington State's defense a massive FAIL, as they failed their highly effective offense by giving up 496 yards to the Big 10's worst program going. Connor Halliday passed for 532 yards and five scores, and therefore should be given a shot to kick each and every defender squarely in the ass this week. Rutgers scored a 41-38 win in Seattle in a neutral site game. WSU should never play in Seattle again under the banner of home game.
Vanderbilt gets the biggest FAIL of Thursday night, as they turned the ball over seven times in a 37-7 home loss to Temple, starting out Derek Mason's career on the wrong foot.


Friday
BYU got a huge PASS after suspending both starting CBs, RB Jamal Williams, and traveling almost 3000 miles only to trounce U Conn in East Hartford. Taysom Hill looks like a smarter and more mature QB in 2014, if that were to be possible. Bob Diaco gets a FAIL in the home opener, but he has one hell of a job to do in rebuilding, or just building, the Husky program.
Syracuse gets a FAIL even in winning, 27-26, over Villanova. The Wildcats took the Orange to double OT, and nearly took down SU in the Carrier Dome. The Orange look to be a major mess heading into the ACC season.
Michigan State gets a PASS for luck, as Connor Cook looked like he was going down for considerable time after taking a shot to the knee. He bounced back, however, and had an almost perfect showing against the FCS Gamecocks in a 45-7 win. Next up, Sparty travels to Eugene to meet up with the Oregon Ducks.
Western Kentucky (PASS) is the team of Friday night, as they blasted Bowling Green and Dino Babers 59-31. QB Brandon Doughty had the game of the night, unleashing for 569 yards and six scores on what was supposed to be a MAC title contending Falcon squad. BGSU receives a huge FAIL for giving up 708 yards on the night, and looks like they are as vulnerable as ever.
Colorado State gets a big PASS by beating arch rival Colorado (FAIL) in Denver. The Rams came off of a big bowl win, and Jim McElwain has the Rams heading in the right direction. The Buffaloes, on the other hand, were supposed to be largely improved this season. This was not a good loss.
UTSA gets a huge PASS on the road by defensively mauling Houston (FAIL) as the Cougars opened their new stadium. The Roadrunners forced John O'Korn into four INTs, making him look positively human, which is no easy feat. UTSA rode that win to a ranking of 11th in our first PRS Ranking of the new season.
Arizona absolutely crushed UNLV (FAIL), as the Wildcats earned a huge PASS. Anu Solomon looked competent at QB for the Cats, and UNLV looked anything but the entire evening. UNLV was coming off of their first bowl in 20 years, but played largely like a two win football team on the night. I see complete regression all over the field. Arizona gets a huge road challenge this week in visiting a rising UTSA program in the Alamo Dome.


Saturday
Idaho gets a PASS as they were saved from an ass whooping by Florida. Even God thought this was a bad matchup, and sent a massive thunderstorm to cancel out the game.
Penn State (PASS) started out the James Franklin era in a huge way by taking out UCF late in Dublin. This was a game that the Lions could have lost, and they very well could have.
UCLA gets a pretty big FAIL, as they looked largely lost in a 28-20 win over Virginia. The Bruins O line looked a mess, and they were lucky enough to get three defensive scores on the day, which saved their asses. Myles Jack was in on almost every defensive play, but strangely enough, when the run game barely registered a blip, he saw no action on offense, making me wonder how stupid OC Noel Mazzone really is.
When you beat anyone 62-0, that's a PASS, and Pittsburgh earned that in their win over Delaware.
Michigan (PASS) proved that lightning doesn't strike twice in the same spot, as they crushed Appalachian State 52-14. Not only did they avoid a second straight loss to the Mountaineers, but they found a big time run game. Can they sustain as the season progresses?
Iowa State earns a huge FAIL, even though I picked the Cyclones to fall to North Dakota State, what the Cyclones did was prove that they are by far the worst team in the Big 12 by falling 34-14 to the FCS champs, and Paul Rhoades ought to start packing his bags.
Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana all earned major FAIL grades by barely beating Northern Iowa, Youngstown State, and Indiana State in that order. It was not a great showing by Big Ten teams playing against the Missouri Valley Conference.
Ohio State struggled for three quarters against Navy, but earns a PASS for not falling upset victim to the Middies in Baltimore. The buckeyes got a solid game from JT Barrett, and the Buckeyes pulled away in the fourth quarter.
UAB and Bill Clark earned a huge PASS by blowing out Troy (FAIL) 48-10, not only earning Bill Clark his first win as UAB coach, but also showing that UAB won't be a pushover this fall, much like they have been for years. Troy coach Larry Blakeney has been stale for some time. It's time for him to retire.
Sometimes, even when you lose, you get a PASS, and that is the case with Georgia Southern, as the Eagles and QB Kevin Ellison nearly pulled off an upset over NC State before falling late 24-23. The Eagles may be better than I gave them credit for, and it's obvious what an impression that one of my favorite coaches in football (Willie Fritz) has already had.
Nebraska and Bo Pelini needed a huge win in the opener over a weak FAU squad, and certainly earned the PASS, as they crushed the Owls 55-7. Tommie Armstrong showed that he has matured, passing for 271 yards in the win. Ameer Abdullah rushed for 232 yards in the win.
In a huge road win, California (PASS) proved that they are a better football team in 2014, as they beat a union on the brain Northwestern (FAIL) team 31-24 in Evanston. The Bears may not get too many wins this fall, but they are certainly ahead of where we thought they'd be.
Notre Dame earns a big PASS, but nobody more so than QB Everett Goulston, who accounted for five TDs in his return from academic suspension in a 48-17 win over Rice.
Auburn handled Arkansas, but earns a split PASS/FAIL grade for not holding Nick Marshall out of the entire game. They played him but didn't start him after a suspension for pot possession. The punishment was weak, to say the least.
Georgia and Todd Gurley both earn massive PASS grades after the Bulldogs crushed Clemson between the hedges. Gurley definitely blew up and started a Heisman campaign.
FIU earned a huge FAIL by falling to FCS member Bethune-Cookman 14-12. This may have been the beginning of the end for head coach Ron Turner.
Speaking of FAIL, Texas Tech had to scrape to survive in a 42-35 win over Central Arkansas. Maybe we can get by this Kliff Kingsbury GQ thing and start realizing that maybe he has some issues coaching the Red Raiders on a week by week basis.
USC gets a great big PASS in a 52-13 win over Fresno State (FAIL). Cody Kessler passed for 394 yards and four scores on a bad toe.
Florida State looked positively human in a scraping 37-31 win over Oklahoma State. Jameis Winston passed for 370 yards, but he also tossed only one TD to two picks, something that isn't normal for him by a long shot.
Give Wisconsin props, but they certainly collapsed late against LSU, and the Badgers failed to make a QB change when it was necessary. Can Gary Anderson win a close game ever? We know that the mad grass eating hatter Les Miles sure can.
Washington will get Cyler Myles back at QB this week, and they sure can use him after narrowly escaping Hawaii (FAIL) 17-16. As a matter of fact, both teams earned FAIL grades Saturday night. Washington looked awful, and Hawaii can't win close games as they fall to 4-21 under Dead Pooler Norm Chow.


Sunday
Tennessee (PASS) was largely expected to be upset by Utah State (FAIL), but Chuckie Keeton couldn't outplay Justin Worley, and the Aggies found themselves in a 14-0 hole early en route to a 38-7  loss to the Vols.
Baylor got a PASS, but it was the defense that starred in a 45-0 shelling of SMU. The Bears did see Bryce Petty miss the second half due to injury, but he says he will be back against Northwestern State this week.


Monday
New Louisville QB Will Gardner, and the Cardinal D both earned rave reviews and a huge PASS in a 31-13 win over Miami. Both teams had new starters, but Miami Freshman Brad Kaaya looked exactly like a freshman.


And now, my picks for week 2! My overall record is 128-21


Thursday
UTSA over Arizona


Friday
Pitt over Boston College
Washington State over Nevada


Saturday
Tennessee over Arkansas State
Buffalo over Army
Alabama over FIU
Nebraska over McNeese State
Missouri over Toledo
Oklahoma over Tulsa
U Conn over Stony Brook
North Texas over SMU
Kansas State over Iowa State
Western Kentucky over Illinois
Penn State over Akron
Purdue over Central Michigan
Rutgers over Howard
Wisconsin over Western Illinois
Clemson over South Carolina State
Navy over Temple
South Alabama over Kent State
Mississippi State over UAB
Georgia State over New Mexico State
Fresno State over Utah
California over Sacramento State
Colorado over U Mass
Eastern Washington over Washington...FCS UPSET ALERT!!!
Stanford over USC
Miami (Ohio) over Eastern Kentucky
Bowling Green over VMI
Kentucky over Ohio
Northern Illinois over Northwestern
Maryland over USF
Iowa over Ball State
Minnesota over Middle Tennessee
Oklahoma State over Missouri State
Virginia over Richmond
Georgia Tech over Tulane
Florida over Eastern Michigan
Arkansas over Nicholls State
Ole Miss over Vanderbilt
Appalachian State over Campbell
NC State over Old Dominion
Wagner over FIU...FCS UPSET ALERT!!!
Georgia Southern over Savannah State
Michigan State over Oregon
Wake Forest over Gardner-Webb
Kansas over SE Missouri State
Louisville over Murray State
Miami over Florida A&M
Duke over Troy
South Carolina over East Carolina
Arizona State over New Mexico
Auburn over San Jose State
UL-Lafayette over Louisiana Tech
Marshall over Rhode Island
Southern Miss over Alcorn State
UL-Monroe over Idaho
Texas A&M over Lamar
LSU over Sam Houston State
Florida State over Citadel
BYU over Texas
West Virginia over Towson
Baylor over Northwestern State
Notre Dame over Michigan
Ohio State over Virginia Tech
North Carolina over San Diego State
Houston over Grambling
Utah State over Idaho State
UNLV over Northern Colorado
UCLA over Memphis
Wyoming over Air Force
Colorado State over Boise State
Oregon State over Hawaii
Texas Tech over UTEP


FCS


Thursday
Texas Southern over Texas College


Saturday
Charlotte over Johnson C. Smith
Lehigh over James Madison
St. Francis over Clarion
Bryant over Merrimack
Dayton over Georgetown
Holy Cross over Morgan State
Alabama A&M over Tuskegee
Tennessee Tech over Indiana State
South Dakota over William Penn
Fordham over Villanova
Liberty over Norfolk State
Tennessee State over Alabama State
NC Central over Elizabeth City State
Montana over Central Washington
Lafayette over Sacred Heart
Jacksonville State over Chattanooga
Furman over Mercer
Charleston Southern over Newberry
Coastal Carolina over North Carolina A&T
Delaware over Delaware State
William & Mary over Hampton
Central Connecticut State over Albany
Bucknell over Marist
Morehead State over Pikeville
Cal Poly over South Dakota State
Robert Morris over North Dakota
Northern Arizona over Abilene Christian
Central Arkansas over UT-Martin
Stephen F. Austin over Incarnate Word
Presbyterian over Bluefield
Southern Illinois over Eastern Illinois
UA-Pine Bluff over Concordia (AL)
Jackson State over Virginia-Lynchburg
Southern over Central Methodist
Truman State over Drake
Davidson over Catawba
Stetson over Florida Tech
Butler over Wittenberg
Illinois State over Mississippi Valley State
SE Louisiana over Southern Utah
Houston Baptist over McMurry
North Dakota State over Weber State
St. Joseph's over Valporaiso
San Deigo over Western New Mexico
UC-Davis over Fort Lewis
Montana State over Black Hills State
Portland State over Western Oregon


Our Coaches on the Hot Seat, and Coaches Swimming in the Dead Pool pieces will begin next week at the completion of week two.









Monday, September 1, 2014

Week One PRS Rankings: FBS

As week one comes to a close this evening with Louisville's 31-13 win over Miami, we officially close out week one of the 2014 college football season. It's been a great weekend, and often strange, and nothing was stranger than Texas A&M exploding for 52 points in a win over South Carolina, giving the Aggies our number one ranking overall in FBS football for this week. As always, we must remind you that this is not a poll. There are no votes used in this system. We use a combination of numbers based on a formula that we have used for over 30 years. Because of this, you will see some unorthodox results in the first few weeks. Sometimes, those unorthodox appearances are a vision of things to come for those schools as the season progresses.
With that said, please enjoy our week one PRS rankings!


1. Texas A&M 276
2. Georgia 269
3. Temple 267
4. BYU  260
5. Marshall 257
T6. Nebraska 253
T6. Boston College 253
T6. Arizona   253
9. Ohio State  251
10. Mississippi State 248
11. UTSA 247
12. Rutgers 244
T13. Florida State 243
T13. Alabama 243
15. USC 241
T16. Michigan 240
T16. Baylor 240
T18. UTEP 238
T18. California 238
20. Western Kentucky 237
T21. UCLA  236
T21. UAB 236
23. LSU 232
24. Oklahoma 230
25. Penn State 228
26. Ohio    220
T27. Texas 219
T27. Tennessee 219
T27. Notre Dame 219
T27. Auburn 219
31. Washington   218
32. Ole Miss 207
33. Purdue 202
34. Louisville 199
T35. Tulsa 195
T35. Colorado State 195
37. NC State 175
38. UL-Monroe 174
39. Texas State 65
T40. Pittsburgh 62
T40. Memphis 62
42. M. Tennessee 54
43. Northern Illinois 52
44. Oregon   49
T45. Stanford 45
T45. Maryland 45
T45. Kentucky 45
T45. East Carolina 45
49. Utah  42
50. Akron 41
T51. UL-Lafayette 39
T51. Kansas State 39
T51. Duke 39
54. Michigan State 38
T55. Toledo 34
T55. TCU 34
57. San Jose State 32
T58. San Diego State 31
T58. State 31
60. Air Force 28
T61. North Carolina 27
T61. Arkansas State 27
63. Virginia Tech 25
64. Charlotte 24
65. Minnesota 22
T66. Missouri 20
T66. Ball State 20
68. Georgia Tech 19
T69. New Mexico State 18
T69. Indiana  18
71. Oregon State 15
72. Old Dominion 13
73. Illinois  11
74. Buffalo 10
75. Nevada 9
76. Iowa   8
77. Texas Tech 7
T78. Wyoming 5
T79. USF 5
80. Central Michigan 4
81. Eastern Michigan 3
T82. Syracuse 1
T82. Georgia State 1
T84. South Alabama 0
T84. Kansas   0
T84. Idaho 0
T84. Florida   0
T84. Cincinnati 0
T84. Army 0
90. Washington State -115
T91. Western Michigan -125
T91. Oklahoma State -125
93. Tulane -126
T94. UCF -128
T94. Georgia Southern -128
96. Wisconsin -130
97. West Virginia -137
T98. Wake Forest -147
T98. Bowling Green -147
T100. Clemson -153
T100. Arkansas -153
102. Miami   -155
103. Boise State -159
104. Rice -164
105. Louisiana Tech -166
T106. Utah State -174
T106. North Texas -174
T106. Appalachian State -174
T106. Fresno State -176
110. Troy -178
111. UNLV -182
112. Northwestern -183
113. Hawaii -185
T114. Virginia  -188
T114. Miami (Ohio) -188
116. Kent State -189
117. New Mexico   -190
118. Florida Atlantic -191
119. SMU -195
120. South Carolina -196
121. Colorado -197
122. Southern Miss -199
123. Navy  -200
124. Houston -213
125. U Conn -215
126. U Mass -216
127. Vanderbilt -223
128. FIU -290
129. Iowa State  -306

Week One PRS Rankings: FCS

The season begins!


1. North Dakota State(1-0)   354     

2. Bethune-Cookman (1-0) 316
3. Sacramento State (1-0) 282
4. Eastern Washington (2-0) 259
5. Richmond (1-0) 250
6. Eastern Kentucky (1-0) 248
7. Coastal Carolina (1-0) 246
8. Missouri State (1-0) 241
T9. Texas Southern (1-0) 239
T9. Wagner (1-0) 239
T11. Central Connecticut (1-0) 235
T11. SE Louisiana (1-0) 235
13. Western Illinois (1-0) 234
14. Monmouth (1-0) 233
T15. Fordham (1-0) 231
T.15 North Carolina A&T (1-0) 231
17. Bryant (1-0) 219
18. Lamar (1-0) 207
19. Sacred Heart (1-0) 199
20. Bucknell (1-0) 196
21. Jackson State (1-0) 177
22. Furman (1-0) 173
23. Albany (1-0) 165
24. Maine (1-0) 164
25. Sam Houston State (1-1) 96
26. SE Missouri State (1-0) 77
27. South Carolina State (1-0) 63
28. Davidson (1-0) 56
T29. Charleston Southern (1-0) 52
T29. Tennessee State (1-0) 52
31. Alcorn State (1-0) 48
32. Murray State (1-0) 47
33. Southern Illinois (1-0) 45
34. Tennessee Tech (1-0) 26
35. Mississippi Valley State (1-0) 25
36. Stetson (1-0) 19
37. Mercer (1-0) 3
T38. Houston Baptist (0-0) 0
T38.Abilene Christan (0-1) 0
T38. Austin Peay (0-1) 0
T38. Brown (0-0) 0
T38. Butler (0-0) 0
T.38 Cal Poly (0-1) 0
T38 Campbell (0-1) 0
T38. Central Arkansas (0-1) 0
T38. Chattanooga (0-1) 0
T38. Colgate (0-1) 0
T38. Columbia (0-0) 0
T38. Cornell (0-0) 0
T38. Dartmouth (0-0) 0
T38. Dayton (0-0) 0
T38. Delaware (0-1) 0
T38. Duquesne (0-1) 0
T38. Eastern Illinois (0-1) 0
T38. Elon (0-1) 0
T38. Hampton (0-1) 0
T38. Harvard (0-0) 0
T38. Howard (0-1) 0
T38. Idaho State (0-1) 0
T38. Illinois State (0-0) 0
T38. Indiana State (0-1) 0
T38. Jacksonville State (0-1) 0
T38. James Madison (0-1) 0
T38. Lafayette (0-0) 0
T38. Lehigh (0-0) 0
T38. Liberty (0-1) 0
T38. McNeese State (0-0) 0
T38. Montana  (0-1) 0
T38. Montana State (0-1) 0
T38. Morgan State (0-1) 0
T38. NC Central (0-1) 0
T38. New Hampshire (0-1) 0
T38. Nicholls State (0-1) 0
T38. North Dakota  (0-1) 0
T38. Northern Arizona (0-1) 0
T38. Northern Colorado (0-0) 0
T38. Northern Iowa (0-1) 0
T38. Penn (0-0) 0
T38. Portland State (0-1) 0
T38. Presbyterian (0-1) 0
T38. Princeton (0-0) 0
T38. Rhode Island (0-0) 0
T38. Samford (0-1) 0
T38. San Diego (0-0) 0
T38. Savannah State (0-1) 0
T38. South Dakota  (0-1) 0
T38. South Dakota State (0-1) 0
T38. Southern  (0-1) 0
T38. Southern Utah (0-1) 0
T38. Stephen F. Austin (0-1) 0
T38. UA-Pine Bluff (0-1) 0
T38. UC-Davis (0-1) 0
T38. UT-Martin (0-1) 0
T38. Villanova (0-1) 0
T38. Weber State (0-1) 0
T38. Western Carolina (0-1) 0
T38. William & Mary (0-1) 0
T38. Wofford (0-1) 0
T38. Yale (0-0) 0
T38. Youngstown State (0-1) 0
101. VMI (0-1) -116
102. Florida A&M (0-1) -138
103. Grambling (0-1) -138
104. Holy Cross (0-1) -138
105. Norfolk State (0-1) -148
106. St. Francis (0-1) -156
107. Gardner-Webb (0-1) -157
108. Delaware State (0-1) -160
109. Alabama State (0-1) -161
110. Marist (0-1) -164
111. Prairie View A&M (0-1) -167
112. Alabama A&M (0-1) -171
113. Towson (0-1) -178
114.Northwestern State (0-1) -180
115. Valporaiso (0-1) -183
116. Morehead State (0-1) -185
117. Citadel (0-1) -199
118. Stony Brook (0-1) -199
119. Robert Morris (0-1) -209
120. Georgetown (0-1) -215
121.  Incarnate Word (0-1) -223
122. Drake (0-1) -301