Boise State Broncos (10-3) vs. Oregon Ducks (7-5)
Breaking Down Boise State: The big controversy to outsiders this season was the insistence on using both Mark Rypien and Montell Cozart in games, something that makes little sense because of how differently you have to play offensively depending on who is in the game. At times, it feels downright disjointed.
The Broncos score 32.1 points per game on the season, but passing is down over 40 yards per game from last season with the dual QB system. Rypien, the more sensible fit in the offense, passed for 2515 yards and 14 scores to just 4 INTs, while Cozart has passed for 10 scores and one pick on the year.
Alexander Mattison is the main threat in the run game for a Broncos team that averages 145.92 yards per game rushing and just 3.91 yards per carry. Mattison has rushed for 10 scores on the yearon 1074 yards rushing. He averages 5.14 yards per carry. Cedrick Wilson was the big star in the passing game, as he caught 73 passes for 1290 yards and six TDs on the year, while averaging over 17 yards per reception. TE Jake Roh is a real red zone threat, as he caught nine TDs on the year as well.
Defensively, Boise State crunched down to allow just 22.5 points per game. They allow 210.8 yards passing per game, while allowing just 125.85 yards rushing.
Junior Leighton Vander Esch had a huge season at LB, making 129 tackles, 81 of which were solo tackles. Kekoa Nawahine also registered 96 tackles from his spot in the secondary, while fellow sophomore DB DeAndre Pierce recorded 81. The defense is fairly efficient, as they are only forced to make just over 66 tackles per game.
The unit averages 5.39 tackles for loss per game, with freshman LB Curtis Weaver piling up a team leading 11. Weaver recorded nine sacks on the season, which also leads the team. The Broncos only average 2.31 sacks per game, which is something to watch. If they cannot get pressure up front against Oregon's speed offense, this could get interesting in a hurry.
The defense has 13 team INTs on the season, averaging one per game, with Nawahine and Vander Esch recording three each.
Tyler Horton leads the team with 11 PBUs on the season in a unit that recorded 51 PBUs as a team. Freshman Avery Williams added eight.
The unit also forces and average of one fumble per game.
Haden Hoggarth was solid at PK this season, hitting 17/21 FGs, and all 52 of his PAT attempts. The Broncos also use two punters, with both Quinn Skillin and Joel Velazques hitting their punts for just over 40 yards per attempt.
Cedrick Williams and Avery Williams are both decent kick return guys, with each going for just over or a shade under 25 yards per return. Avery Williams is a serious threat on punt returns, averaging 11.96 yards per return, with two returns for scores.
Breaking Down Oregon Ducks: Oregon is, once again, one of the more explosive teams in the nation offensively, averaging 36.7 points per game. They average just 186.3 yards per game passing, but seemingly are as healthy as they have been all year at QB. They rush for a booming 268 yards per game as well.
Justin Herbert is back and healthy at QB, and if he gets loose, he can do a lot of damage. He completes 66.5% of his passes, and had 13 TD passes in a shortened season, with just 3 INTs. Braxton Burmeister is not remotely as dangerous as Herbert, so keeping him healthy and on the field is massively important.
Royce Freeman is a beast at RB for the Ducks, and will be playing in his final game. He has rushed for 1475 yards and score 16 times. He averages over 6 yards per carry, and once in the open field, is very difficult to catch up with. Kani Benoit, the key reserve, also rushed for 10 scores, and is also a senior in his final game. He averages over 7 yards per carry, and is equally as dangerous once in the open field.
The ducks are not particularly deep in the receiving corps when it comes to production, as only two receivers have caught as many as 30 passes. Dillon Mitchell and Jacob Breeland have been the scoring options, as they have caught a combined 9 TD passes, but Charles Nelson, also a senior, leads the team with 392 yards. Breeland averages over 18 yards per grab.
Teams have managed to score on the Ducks this season, as they allow over 28 points per game. Teams have managed to throw for 222 yards per game against the defense, while they do tend to clamp down against the run, allowing only 129 yards per game against the rush.
Sophomore LB Troy Dye is the big production guy, as he leads the team with 103 tackles on the season. No other Duck defender has over 55 tackles. Oregon is decently efficient, only being forced to make 68.67 tackles per game.
Oregon also makes plays in the backfield, as Dye, Jalen Jelks, and Justin Hollins all registered double figure TFLs this season. As a team, Oregon has made 88 TFLs, or 7.33 per game. The Ducks have also arranged to make 32 sacks on the season, with Jelks leading the way with 6.5.
Thomas Graham and Ugochukwu Amadi are tied for the lead with 3 picks each for a team that has recorded 13 INTs and 63 PBUs. Senior DB Arrion Springs recorded 17 total PBUs on the season.
Aidan Schneider was hardly the busiest kicker in the nation, but did manage to hit 9/12 FG attempts. Adam Stack struggled as the Punter this fall, averaging just 38 yards per punt.
Tony Brooks-Jones and Nelson are decent in the kick return game, both averaging over25 yards per return, while Dillon Mitchell averages 8.33 yards per punt return.
Boise State Win If: They keep to their game, play efficient containing defense, and do not let the Oregon speed game erupt. Containment will be paramount, and they must force the Ducks to throw to win.
Oregon Wins If: The run game blows up, Herbert stays on the field and plays efficiently, and the ducks avoid troubles in the punting game, where they have allowed two scores on returns this season. The defense will need to be blinding coming off the edge, and must force opportunities on turnovers from the QBs, who have combined for just 5 INTs all season.
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