Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Frisco Bowl Preview

Louisiana Tech (6-6) vs. SMU (7-5)

Breaking Down Louisiana Tech: For Louisiana Tech to win this game, they will have to find a way to get passed the fact that they are struggling to throw the football under QB J'Mar Smith in 2017. Smith's efficiency rating is not a glowing thing at 123.98, and he has only tossed 13 TD passes on the season, while completing just 55.4% of his passes. If the Bulldogs are to have a shot tonight, he has to overcome all of this and find a way to be a star in the making.
Louisiana Tech also has to get something out fo their run game, which has averaged over 175 yards per game. Boston Scott has rushed for 937 yards on the season and has scored 8 times, and averages solidly over 5 yards per carry. Jarred Craft is a credible reserve to Scott, but is not the game breaker one would want him to be. Smith is the third leading rusher, so SMU will have to work on containing him, and force him to be a pocket presence, rather than a dual threat.
Teddy Veal is the guy to watch in the passing game, as he leads the Bulldogs with 69 catches for 832 yards on the year. He averages just over 12 yards per reception, so look out for him on all of the under stuff in the passing game. Rashid Bonnette is the only other receiver who has caught 30 or more passes this season.
Tech allows 26.7 points per game, and that may be an issue going up against a high powered offense like that of SMU tonight. The Bulldogs average 67.25 tackles per game, but there are no standouts in this unit.
Tech also only picks up 4.58 TFLs per game, and are not applying much by up front pressure. Jaylon Ferguson is the leader in that area with 8.5 TFLs, including 6 sacks. This is not what I would call a seriously active front seven.
The Bulldogs have, despite the lacking play up front, converted 16 INTs this season, led by Amik Robertson with 4. On the other hand, they have created just 33 PBUs on the season, one of the lower totals nationally.
Jonathon Barnes has gotten a lot of work in at PK this season, but has been inconsistent, at best. He has hit just 22/29 FG attempts on the season, and has missed 3 PATs. The Bulldogs struggle in the punting game as well, as both Brady Farlow and Davan Fryer have averaged just 37.25 yards per punt combined, with neither going over 40 yards individually.
Jaqwis Dancy averages 27.38 yards per return in the kick return unit, but as a group, the Bulldogs average just over 20 yards per return, so it would be foolish of SMU to kick to him. Veal averages 6.71 yards per punt return, and has brought one back for a score.

Breaking Down SMU: Ben Hicks may not be the most accurate passer in the nation, but he has come a long way. He passes for 286.8 yards per game, and has tossed 32 TDs to just 9 INTs on the season, all despite completing just 58.7% of his passes. SMU will win this game based on what he can do in spreading the field, and he has weapons to do so aplenty.
Coutland Sutton is one of the best receivers in the nation, and Trey Quinn ha supped his game to match. If you add in James Proche, the three have combined for 202 receptions on the season for 3034 yards and 30 scores. This is one of the most dangerous units in the nation.
SMU, as an added bonus, also averages 185 yards rushing per game as a team. Xavier Jones rushed for 1019 yards this season, while Ke'Mon Freeman scored 11 times. Jones added another 9 rushing scores on the season for a Mustangs offense that averages over 40 points per game.
SMU averages 67 tackles per game as a defensive unit, led by sophomore DB Mikial Onu with 93. SMU boasts a very aggressive front, averaging 7 TFLs per game, led by Justin Lawler and Kyran Mitchell, who combined for 30 total TFLs on the season. SMU finished with 30 sacks as a team, with Lawler leading the way off the edge with 9.5.
Jordan Wyatt makes the most of mistakes by opposing QBs in this secondary, as he has picked off a team leading 4 passes, taking 2 back for scores. Rodney Clemson has 10 PBUs on the year, while Wyatt finished with 8.
Josh Williams is not a sure thing at PK. He managed to hit just 13/19 FG attempts on the season, while also missing 5 PATs. Jamie Sackville was decent as the punter, averaging 40.75 yards per try this season.
SMU does not boast a virulent return game, averaging just over 18 yards per kick return, and 3.71 yards per punt return.

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