Troy (10-2) vs. North Texas (9-4)
Saturday, 10:00 PST
Breaking Down The Troy Trojans: Head coach Neal Brown has brought the Trojans to peak performance and efficiency in 2017, leading them to a 10 win season, a Sun Belt title (tied with Appalachina State) Brandon Silvers is the engine that all things run through for Troy, as he passes for 248 yards per game. He has taken on more of a game manager mind set this season, and no longer has to play like he is the be all player as in seasons past. He passed for 13 TDs, but tossed just six INTs all season. Silvers added four more scores on the ground, but is not an incredible threat to take off with the football.
Jordan Chunn is the leading rusher, but missed games against Georgia State and Georgia Southern this season, and fell well short of his totals from last season. He rushed for 774 yards and 10 scores on the year, and still managed to average five yards per carry on the year. Jamarius Henderson is a big play threat in the run game, averaging 8.25 yards per carry, but has just 40 carries on the season. He is a strong leader to be a starter next fall, as Chunn and Josh Anderson both depart.
Five different receivers have caught at least 28 passes in 2017, led by Deondre Douglas with 48 for 628 yards and four scores. Damion Willis is a bigger threat downfield, as he averages over 15 yards per grab, and Tray Eaford averages over 18 yards per grab.
Defensively, Troy was one of the better teams in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 17.5 points per game. With the defense not getting overtaxed, they were only asked to record just over 70 tackles per game, led by sophomore LB Tron Folsom, who finished with 77 tackles on the year. The Trojans recorded 101 tackles behind the line of scrimmage this season, led by Hunter Reese with 11.5. Jamal Stadom, Folsom, Marcus Webb, and Sam Lebbie all finished with 8.5 or more. 12 different Trojans recorded at least one full sack in 2017, and they averaged three sacks per game.
All of that pressure led to creating 15 INTs as a team, led by Blace Brown, who finished with five. The Trojans also borke up 43 passes as a team, led by Brown with six total.
A weak link for the Trojans could come by way of special teams, as three different PKs combined to hit on just 11/19 FG attempts on the season. Punter Tyler Sumpter seems to have taken control of the job, and his hit on 7/9 late in the year. He also averages 40.19 yards per punt.
When kicking off, North Texas must avoid kicking the football to Marcus Jones, as he has returned three kicks for scores this season, and averages 32.88 yards per return, which was good for fourth in the nation. Jones also averages 9.31 yards per punt return.
Breaking Down the North Texas Mean Green: Seth Littrell has done an amazing turnaround job in Denton, and the UNT Mean Green streaked to a Conference USA West title, and an appearance in the CUSA title game, where they were soundly beaten by the FAU Owls. In one season, UNT went from averaging just 24 points per game to averaging 35 points per game.
Mason Fine was rock solid as a sophomore at QB, and has found his groove. He averaged 288.4 yards passing per game, and hit for 28 TD passes to 13 INTs in 13 games. Fine should be one of the national QBs to watch in 2018, and needs to play the game of his life against a tough defensive Troy secondary.
North Texas also added over 40 yards per game to their rushing average in 2017, led by senior Jeffrey Wilson, who blew up for 1288 yards and 16 scores, to go with his 6.46 yards per carry average. Freshman Nick Smith added another 665 yards and six scores, while averaging 5.04 yards per carry. As a team, UNT rushed for 28 TDs in 2017 on 37.85 carries per game.
Seven different receivers caught 24 passes or more in 2017, led by 56 from Michael Lawrence, who went for 749 yards and three scores. Jalen Guyton is more of a field stretcher, and caught 48 passes for 764 yards and nine scores. Rico Bussey, Jr., Turner Smiley, and Jaelon Darden all caught over 30 passes, while TE Kelvin Smith, and Jeffrey Wilson both caught over 20 balls. Smiley is the big play threat, averaging over 18 yards per catch.
Defensively, UNT still has a ton of work to do, as they average allowing 33.8 points per game, which is actually worse than a year ago fractionally.
They allow 208 yards rushing per game, while allowing another 223 yards passing. That will not get it done this week against a Trojans team that can explode from time to time.
Junior LB EJ Ejiya recorded 100 tackles on the season, while Kishawn McClain and Khairi Muhammad added 88 per player. McClain and Muhammad both play in the secondary, so you can see how many plays are allowed to get to the second and third levels before UNT comes up with stops. Ejiya is also the primary play maker behind the kine, piling up 10 TFLs on the season, senior DL Andy Flusche recorded eight. Ejiya recorded a team leading seven sacks as well, but nobody else finished with more than 2.5. The secondary recorded just seven picks all season long, while they defended 42 passes as a team, with Kemon Hall and Eric Jenkins both collecting seven PBUs.
Trevor Moore is solid in the FG game, as he collected 19/21 on the season, giving UNT a solid scoring option when they cannot punch it in. Blake Anderson is the Punter as a freshman after averaging 41.27 yards per punt in his first season in Denton.
UNT will struggle on kick returns, as they average just over 18 yards per return as a team, but Jaelon Darden is a dangerous punt return man, averaging over 12 yards per return.
Troy Wins If: They can take advantage of the leaky UNT defense, and roll out to an early big lead, forcing UNT QB Mason Fine to have to become a hero. If Troy harasses Fine up front and forces him into mistakes, Troy could pull away fairly easily.
North Texas Wins If: They can find a defensive effort unlike any they have played this season. Troy does not provide a ton of turnover opportunities on offense, so UNT will have to force the issue, something they have not been great at doing. If UNT can keep it close, and Darden can break something in the punt return game, this could get interesting. Fine has to be in sink, and the offense has to be able to stay balanced against big odds.
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