New Mexico Lobos 2018 Football Preview
Opening Statement: The Lobos basically bottomed out in several areas last season, finishing just 3-9, and they enter the 2017 season on a 7 game losing streak, a streak that should be broken when the Lobos open the season against FCS member Incarnate Word from the Southland Conference. It gets bad in week 2, however, as the Lobos have to pull up stakes and head to Madison to take on Wisconsin. With off-field issues clouding things (Bob Davie was suspended for alleged player abuse), and a financial situation that is limiting the program, it's hard to see a way out of this tail spin, and is even harder to see a future where Bob Davie coaches this program after his current deal ends.
Breakdown Offense: The option game gave out last fall, and like many option teams, once you get down a littlem you cannot throw your way out of it, and UNM ranked 122nd out of 129 teams in passing yards per game last fall. As a result, they finished 113th in scoring offense at just 20.7 points per game. They were held to under 20 points 8 times last season. Calvin Magee was hired after being let go along with Rich Rodriguez at Arizona, and he will be tasked with keeping the current scheme, while finding a way to diversify it at the same time.
Tevaka Tuioti is back at QB, but he had a tough go of it as a passer, as he tossed more INTs (6) than TD passes (4). He passed for just 705 yards and completed just 48.3% of his passes as a freshman. He did not explode as a runner, either, as he totaled just 142 yards in 9 games, and scored only once. Colton Gerhart, a senior, may push him in camp. He passed for just 180 yards and one score, while tossing 2 picks. He is slightly more accurate, as he completed 58% of his passes in limited action. Lamar Jordan, who began last season as the starter before injuries took hold, is gone.
Tyrone Owens is back as a starter at RB, but he only rushed for 770 yards and 4 scores. He averaged 5.54 yards per carry, however, so he has potential. THe Lobos brought in JC transfer Ahmari Davis, who rushed for 123.5 yards per game and scored 17 times last fall. He will be relied upon to spark the unit. There is not a ton of proven depth, so the unit could be in trouble if injuries settle in, or production stalls out as it did last fall.
Jay Griffin IV led the team with just 393 yards on 29 receptions last season, but is the returning starter in the unit. Delane Hart-Johnson caught 15 passes last fall, and also returns, as this may be the deepest unit on the roster, offensively speaking. Hart-Johnson averaged 20.67 yards per reception last fall. Patrick Reed and Q' Drennan bring depth, as they combined for 14 receptions last fall. Aaron Molina, a senior, caught 2 passes, and returns as well.
Zahneer Shuler is projected to take over at TE this fall, but should still get a push from Marcus Williams. They combined for 6 receptions last fall. Aaron Overacker and Daniel Peabody are the only other TEs on the roster, and Williams is severely undersized for the position.
RG Aaron Jenkins is the only returning starter on a very thin line. Teton Saltes (LT), Charlie Grammel (LG), Beau Hott (C), and Chris Estrella (RT) are the expected new starters. Depth, like I said, is incredibly non-existent.
Breakdown Defense: New Mexico allowed 31.8 points per game in 2017, and ranked 70th nationally in total defense. With the offense looking as thin as it does, this unit could end up beleaguered once again.
Only one starter returns on the line in DE Cody Baker, and he totaled just 2 TFLs last season for the Lobos. Nahje Flowers is expected to win the open DE job, while Aaron Blackwell starts in the middle at NT in the 3-3-5 defensive set. Blackwell played in 11 games as a sophomore, and totaled 3.5 TFLs. Emmanuel Joseph, a sophomore, could fight it out for the open DE spot with Flowers. Jermane Conyers is the backup at NT.
Alex Hart is the lone starter back at LB, and will play in the middle. He totaled 58 tackles, 5.5 TFLs, one sack, 3 PBUs, 5 QB hurries, and one forced fumble. He may be flanked by Jordan Flack on the strong side. Flack finished last season with 22 sacks, one sack, and a pick. On the weak side, Sitivani Tamaivena is penciled in to start. He totaled 20 tackles as a junior. Rhashaun Epting may push Flack on the strong side in camp. Evahelotu Tohi will add some depth in the middle.
The secondary had a rough year in 2017, but 3 starters return looking for redemption. Jalin Burrell and D'Angelo Ross are back at the CB spots. Burrell had 53 tackles with 10 PBUs last fall, while Ross totaled 28 tackles and 11 PBUs. Corey Hightower is back as the 3rd CB, but again, depth is thin after that.
Bijon Parker is back to start at Safety. He totaled 23 tackles last fall and added 3 PBUs. The Lobos lost their two best defenders last fall in Jake Rothschiller and Jacob Girgle, and must replace them. Michael Sewell is slated to take over at SS, while Kameron Miller is penciled in at FS. Stanley Barnwell could push for one of those spots in camp, while Gabe Ortega could provide some depth.
Breakdown Special Teams: The PK job is headed to the hands of freshman Stephen Ruiz this fall, as Jason Sanders has moved on after a fairly uneven season.
The Punter will also likely be in the hands of a freshman, as John Mitchell takes over for Corey Bojorquez, who was one of the best Punters in the nation last fall, as he averaged 47.31 yards per punt. That will be a huge set of shoes to fill.
Both return jobs will be open and fought out in camp.
Final Analysis: New Mexico is in bad shape right now. The coaching future of Davie seems to be bleak, finances are not amazing, and the roster is full of holes, and Davie went the massive JC transfer route to help with it, and that almost never works. The offense, especially at QB, is lacking any star power, and finding anyone who can step up has been difficult. The line is a mess as well.
Defensively, the Lobos cracked under the pressure of having a non-existent offense last fall, and fell apart when it mattered. They lost 3 games by a total of 8 points last season, and if you cannot win the close ones, you find yourself in a hole. Without a strong passing ability to counter the option ground game, the Lobos figure to stay down in the Mountain West Mountain Division basement once again.
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