Oklahoma Sooners 2018 Football Preview
Opening Statement: The Sooners came on one half game short of playing for a national title in 2017, as a second half slow down awarded Georgia that shot instead. The Rose Bowl loss to the Bulldogs had snapped an 8 game winning streak for Oklahoma, and the Sooners lost considerable talent from that roster, but let's not got tied up worrying about that, because the roster is still loaded with talent, and Lincoln Riley is just getting things going under his stamp. Recruiting was strong once again, and the cupboard is certainly not empty. The Big 12 may be a battle at the top once again, but Oklahoma making another run this fall should not be a shock.
Breakdown Offense: Oklahoma finished 3rd nationally in scoring offense last season, averaging 45.1 points per game. The Sooners scored 40 points or more on 10 occasions last fall, and their offense is primed in that direction once again. They passed for 361.8 yards per game, and rushed for another 217.79 yards per contest. They ranked 27th nationally in rushing yards per game, and 3rd nationally in passing. With Baker Mayfield having moved on, there is a chance that the offense could balance out a bit more this fall, and I will explain why in the next paragraph.
Kyler Murray is potentially back as the starting QB for the Sooners, and is one of the better dual threat QBs in the nation looking to grab a starting job. The only question about him is whether or not he will choose baseball or football, when some MLB team is expected to draft him early in their draft this month. Lincoln Riley made a statement within 72 hours of this posting stating that he fully expects Murray to be in pads in fall camp. I expect it as well, but the program is on pins and needles about the prospect. Murray played in 7 games last fall, completing 18/21 passes for 359 yards and 3 scores with zero INTs. He was used in change of pace, wildcat type sets last fall, and he could provide a deep zone read option look for the Sooners that could be better than even Mayfield could provide, and he was not, as they say, half bad. There really is not a QB battle, as some have projected, as it looks like Murray would have a lock on the job. The real battle could be at QB2, where Tanner Schafer and Austin Kendall could have a fight. Schafer made one appearance last fall, completing 3/5 passes, while Kendall played in 2 games during the 2016 season, completing 16/22 passes for 143 yards, with 2 TD passes and zero picks. Connor McGinnis and Reece Clark, a pair of RS juniors, round out the group, with the exception of incoming freshman Tanner Mordecai.
The RB corps may be the deepest in the nation, as 3 of the top 4 backs who had carries in 2017 all return. Rodney Anderson rushed for 1161 yards and 13 scores last fall, while averaging 6.18 yards per carry and 82.93 yards per game. He did that damage all while averaging just 13.43 carries per game. Sophomore Trey Sermon showed plenty of splash last fall, as he rushed for 744 yards and 5 scores, averaging 6.15 yards per carry, all on just 8.64 carries per game. Marcelius Sutton also returns, and carried 22 times last fall, scoring 2 times. Freshmen TJ Pledger and Kennedy Brooks (RS) round out the group.
Marquise Brown is back as a junior this fall, and posted 57-1095-7 last fall to lead the Sooners receiving corps. He averaged 19.21 yards per catch, and is one of the better deep ball threats in the nation. CeeDee Lamb also returns after a rock solid freshman season that saw him catch 46 passes for 807 yards and 7 scores, while averaging an eye popping 17.54 yards per grab. Mykel Jones caught 16 passes as a sophomore and figures into an elevated role this fall. Lee Morris, AD Jones, Myles Tease, Chase Nevel, and Sam Iheke could provide some depth, but the group is largely inexperienced, or has not provided much in terms of production, due to the depth of the group, and 3 more freshmen are coming in as well in JaquayIn Crawford, Jaylon Robinson, and Kundarrius Taylor.
The line loses star tackle Orlando Brown, but again, there is plenty of talent remaining for Oklahoma coming into the 2018 season. Cody Ford could roll into the LT job, but Quinn Mittermeier is also in consideration for the job. RS sophomore Erik Swenson is also in the mix, but looks like the reserve in any eventuality or simulation. Ben Powers projects to start at LG. Marquis Hayes projects as the reserve at LG, but if Ford does not start at LT, some projections have him as backing up at LG, so Hayes potentially has a battle coming on. There is a battle brewing at C that will head into fall camp, with projections there showing Creed Humphery, a RS freshman, battling out with RS senior Jonathon Alvarez. Dru Samia has a lock at the RG spot, with RS freshman Tyrese Robinson projecting as his backup. Bobby Evans also has a lock at RT, with RS freshman Adrian Ealy projecting as his primary backup. The Sooners added 3 incoming freshmen, with a total of 15 linemen already having been at spring camp.
Breakdown Defense: When the Sooners score as often and as quickly as they tend to do, the defense can take a bit of a hit, as they allowed 27.1 points per game last season. Still, when you score as much as they did, this number looks higher and more worrisome than it ever should be, as the Sooners still won games on average by over 18 points per contest. Oklahoma allowed 238.4 yards passing per game, and allowed 156.5 yards on the ground. Talent was lost on this side of the football as well, but fear not, as there is plenty of talent on the defensive side returning as well.
The line loses some star power with Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and DJ Ward, and they took 24.5 TFLs with them when they moved on. There is still plenty to be happy about. Kenneth Mann gets the start at DE, as he finished with 6 TFLs last fall in 13 games. He should have a much bigger role in the defense this fall. Marquise Overton projects at the NG spot, and finished with 3 TFLs last fall in 13 games as a sophomore. Amani Bledsoe also finished with 3 TFLs last fall in 10 games, also as a sophomore. The main concern will be depth behind this unit, as there was not a lot of production that could have come from whomever will win the backup battles. Expect Dillon Faamatau, Neville Gallimore, and Addison Gumbs to all get increased action this fall. The Sooners expected to net 5 new defensive linemen in the recruiting class, and netted all 5 in the process, so some new blood gets infused this fall.
Emmanuel Beal will be missed at LB this fall, as he led the Sooners with 95 tackles last season. Kenneth Murray returns at the MIKE spot, however, and the sophomore should become a star this fall, after he finished 2nd on the team with 77 tackles as a freshman. He added 7.5 TFLs, one sack, 3 QB hurries, and a forced fumble. Mark Jackson, Jr. projects to start at SAM spot, but recorded just 7 tackles as a sophomore last fall. Caleb Kelly projects as the WILL, and finished with 56 tackles last fall. Gumbs could come off the line to start at the JACK spot, but could be in a battle there with Bryan Mead. Of each group for the Sooners, this unit could face the most uncertainty as we head into the 2018 season. Jon-Michael Terry may provide some depth, but the rest of the second and third units are looking like ongoing, fluid situations as we enter the summer.
Tre Norwood and Parnell Motley project to start at the CB spots. They combined for 17 PBUs last fall, and could be one of the best CB duos in the Big 12 this fall. Motley picked off 2 passes last fall, and totaled 63 tackles. Norwood finished with 30. Tre Jordan and Jordan Parker are the backups. Brendan Radley-Hiles and Jordan Broiles could both see times at the Nickel when needed.
The Safety spots seem less settled as we head into the summer. Chanse Sylvie and Radley-Hiles appear locked in a fight for the SS position. Experience will be an issue, with Radley-Hiles being a freshman, and Sylvie being a RS junior who has been blocked on the depth chart. FS has a similar problem, as Kahlil Haughton appears stuck in battle with Robert Branes. This fight will go well into fall camp before settled.
Breakdown Special Teams: It's all good news here with the return of Austin Seibert, who hit 17/21 FG attempts last season, and was perfect on 81 PATs. He could not be a heck of a lot better than he was last season.
Seibert also averaged 42.33 yards per punt, so the news is twice as good.
Sutton averaged over 21 yards per kick return, and will return to that job, while Lamb returns punts once more.
Final Analysis: While there are concerns at LB and S, as far as starting jobs and experience are concerned, the Sooners return enough firepower and talent to overcome those situations. Talent and coaching often go above such circumstances, and they have plenty of that on hand. Offensively, despite the loss of Mayfield and star TE Mark Andrews, look for the Sooners to have plenty left over to go to work with, especially when it comes to the run game. Oklahoma looks strong enough to stave off all challengers for the Big 12 title once again, and I can absolutely see another run for a national title being in the cards. Look for the Sooners to be, at worst, a top 10 program, in what has the makings for yet another strong season in Norman.
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