New Mexico State Aggies 2018 Football Preview
Opening Statements: Sometimes miracles do happen, and the Aggies broke the longest bowl appearance drought in FBS football, as they Beat South Alabama in their season finale to gain eligibility and head to the Arizona Bowl, their first bowl since 1960. The Aggies broke the 7 win plane for the first time since I can remember, and beat Utah State to wrap up the year. Now they have to deal with the aftermath of losing their 3 best players on offense in QB Tyler Rogers, RB Larry Rose III, and WR Jaleel Scott. The defense seems stacked enough, so if they can find some pieces, could we be looking at another bowl run in 2018?
Breakdown Offense: Nick Jeanty takes over at QB for Rogers, and he has started games in the past, but his overall numbers in limited duty last season could be concerning. He passed for 389 yards, and completed 66.7% of his passes, which are decent numbers given playing time, but he tossed 4 INTs to just one TD pass, and that is not a great look. There is zero experience behind Jeanty, so it is all on him.
Finding a replacement for Rose III is paramount to success at RB. Jason Huntley is penciled in there after rushing for 420 yards and a score as the primary reserve to Rose last fall. He averaged 6 yards per carry, and may be ready for a breakout season as a junior. Christian Gibson is the only returning back with any carries last season, and that was all of 4 carries for one yard.
With Scott and Rose gone, that takes 131 receptions from last season off the books. Johnathon Boone and OJ Clark do return, however, as starters. Clark caught 47 passes last fall for 500 yards and 3 scores, and averaged 10.64 yards per catch, while Boone caught 31 passes for 399 yards. Finding a big play receiver to replace Scott will be at issue. Anthony Muse caught 42 passes last fall, but he, too, seems more like a possession receiver type. Drew Dan, and Izaiah Lottie also are looking for more work this fall.
Bryce Roberts caught 9 passes as a freshman at TE last fall, and returns to the role. Xander Yarberough caught 2 passes as a freshman as well, and will be back to add some depth. \
The line could be the best unit on offense for the Aggies this fall, as 4 starters return. Sage Doxtater (LT), Brian Trujillo (LG), Jamin Smith (C), and Isaac McClain (RG) all return to starting roles. JC transfer Eric Pulliam is penciled in as the new starter at RT. Billy Sharmoug could push for time inside at C, while Tony Bello looks for time at OG.
Breakdown Defense: Frank Spaziani, a former Boston College head coach, is transforming what once was one of the worst defenses in the nation annually. The Aggies, under his watch, finished tied for 2nd in sacks nationally last fall, and is one of the more aggressive units you will see.
They return all 3 starters on the line this season in DEs Cedric Wilcots II and Roy Lopez, and NT Myles Vigne. Wilcots led the group in TFLs with 12 last fall, and led the team with 8.5 sacks. Lopez totaled 4.5 TFLs and 2.5 sacks. Vigne plugged up the middle with 2 TFLs as a freshman last fall. Jassavia Reese provides depth, but there is not a lot of eperience or depth after that.
The news is not as good at LB, where only one of 4 starters return. Terrill Hanks is that returning starter, and he totaled 103 tackles last fall and added 15 TFLs. He finished second on the team with 7 sacks as well, and added 6 PBUs, 4 QB hurries, and 2 forced fumbles, while also picking off 2 passes. Javahn Fergurson, Leon McQuaker, and Shane Jackson are the new starters, with Lui Fa'amasino in the mix as well. Billy Nipp returns as a junior to add some depth.
The secondary returns 3 of 4 starters in CB DeMarcus Owens, S Shamad Lomax, and S Ron LaForce. Owens totaled 8 PBUs last fall and picked off 2 passes. Lomax led the team with 4 INTs, and added 7 PBUs and 4 forced fumbles, while LaForce had 3 INTs, and added 5 PBUs. LaForce finished 3rd in tackles with 104, while Lomax added 72. The new starter at CB will likely be Ray Buford, another JC transfer. Austin Perkins could work his way into that spot as well after totaling 4 PBUs. Komotay Koffie and Jared Phipps provide some depth in the secondary as well.
Breakdown Special Teams: Dylan Brown is back at PK after hitting 13/17 FG attempts last fall. He need to find some consistency as he missed 3 PATs.
Payton Theisler was solid at Punter, averaging 41.53 yards per punt. He returns to handle the job.
Huntley is one of the more feared KR men in the game, as he averaged 29.61 yards per return, bringing 2 back for scores last fall. The PR job is open heading into camp, with OJ Clark being the lead target there for now.
Final Analysis: I really would love to see New Mexico State start a bowl streak this season, but when you look at the collective losses they have suffered coming into 2018 at key positions of QB, RB, WR, and LB, it's hard to see a program like this just picking up and running with replacement parts without missing a beat. It will be very difficult for the Aggies to get back to a bowl and survive those losses, especially being that they are no longer affiliated with a conference, as their membership in the Sun Belt ended last season, and they now have to pull their way as an independent. The program may be headed in the right direction, finally, but we have seen this in short spurts before, minus the bowl bid and win. It remains to be seen if what happened last season is sustainable. I hope it is, but there are some serious indicators that it may not be.
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