Oregon Ducks 2018 Football Preview
Opening Statement: Oregon is on their 3rd football coach in 3 years with Mario Cristobal being promoted from line coach to head coach after Willie Taggart played a one and done deal on the Ducks after a 7-5 season in 2017. Taggart is off to Florida State now, but Cristobal returns after coaching the Ducks in a 38-28 Las Vegas Bowl loss to Boise State. The major coup for Cristobal was in retaining DC Jim Leavitt, who almost went with Taggart to FSU. Cristobal had the full support of the players on the team, and keeping him as coach went a long way to creating a continuity that would have been lacking here had they went elsewhere. The Ducks have talent on hand, and are finally ready to break back out again, but the national title chasing Ducks under Chip Kelly may not be heard from again for some time. The Ducks just have to get stable, for now.
Breakdown Offense: Justin Herbert probably returns to the Ducks as the best starting QB in the PAC-12, with all due respect to Khalil Hill of Arizona. Herbert passed for 1983 yards in 8 games last fall, and tossed 15 TDs to just 5 INTs, and completed 67.5% of his passes on the season. His major issue is staying healthy and on the field, as he missed another 5 games last fall, after missing a chunk of the 2016 season as well. Herbert added another 183 yards and 5 scores as a runner. Braxton Burmeister is the backup, but tossed 6 INTs to just 2 TD passes in relief last season. Freshman Tyler Shough could push for the backup spot in camp.
With Royce Freeman and Kani Benoit moving on, Tony Brooks-James becomes the starting RB after rushing for 498 yards and 2 scores last fall. With the departures, the Ducks lose 26 rushing TDs in production. Darrian Felix is the projected backup this fall, but depth is a major issue.
Dillon Mitchell and Johnny Johnson are back to start at WR. Mitchell caught 42 passes for 517 TDs and 4 scores, while averaging 12.31 yards per catch. Johnson caught 21 passes as a freshman last fall, and averaged 14.24 yards per catch. Brendan Schooler is slated to be the 3rd starter at WR, and caught 20 passes last season. Malik Lovette, Jaylon Redd, and Daewood Davis are the backups, but this group, like the RB corps, is not deep in production.
Jacob Breeland is back as the starter at TE. He caught 18 passes last season in 12 games played. Cam McCormick caught 6 passes as a freshman last season, and will be the primary backup.
The line returns 4 players with starting experience, but only 3 who finished the season as starters in Shane Lemieux (LG), Jake Hanson (C), and Calvin Throckmorton (RT). Brady Aiello, a junior, is slated to try and replace Tyrell Crosby at LT, while Jacob Capra is penciled in to start at RG. Logan Bathke and Alex Forsyth (freshman) are the backups at the Tackle spots, while Sam Poutasi and Charlie Landgraf are the backups at OG. Ryan Walk (freshman) is the backup at Center.
Breakdown Defense: Leavitt improved Oregon's total defense by 80 spots nationally in one season in Eugene last fall. He gets 2 of 3 starters back on the line in DE Jalen Jelks and NG Jordan Scott. Jelks led the Ducks with 15.5 TFLs last season, and is one of the best ends in the nation. He totaled 6.5 sacks, 58 tackles, 7 PBUs, 4 QB hurries, and a blocked kick. Scott totaled 4.5 TFLs last fall, and added 2 sacks and 34 tackles. Austin Faoliu is the projected starter at the open DE spot. He totaled 2.5 TFLs in 12 games as a freshman last fall. Gary Barker and Gus Cumberlander are the projected backups at DE, Malik Young is still awaiting to hear about his eligibility at this time for an additional year. Popo Aumavae is the backup at NG.
Troy Dye and Justin Hollins are back at LB this fall. Dye led the Ducks with 107 tackles last fall, and added 13.5 TFLs, 4 sacks, 4 PBUs, a QB hurry, and a forced fumble. Hollins recorded 59 tackles, 11.5 TFLs, 3.5 sacks, 3 QB hurries, 3 forced fumbles, and a blocked kick. Isaac Slade-Matautia is projected to win the JACK spot this fall. He is a freshman. Kaulana Apelu is the backup at Slade-Matautia, Keith Simms backs up Dye, and Bryson Young backs up Hollins.
The secondary gets 2 starters back in CB Thomas Graham and S Ugochukwu Amadi. Graham finished with 4 PBUs as a freshman last fall, and tied for the team lead with 3 INTs. Amadi broke up 8 passes, and also had 3 INTs. He also totaled 43 tackles. Deommodore Lenoir is expected to be the new starter at CB, while Mattrell McGraw is the new starter at S.
Breakdown Special Teams: Aidan Schneider is gone at PK, so expect Adam Stack to take over as both the PK and Punter this fall. That may not be the best news, as Stack struggled punting the ball, averaging just 38.37 yards per punt last season.
Brooks-James is back and should be returning kicks once again after averaging 25.71 yards per return last fall. He took one back for a score as well. Dillon Mitchell averaged 8.09 yards per return on punts last fall, and also returns to the role.
Final Analysis: The Ducks have some weapons on offense, but the key to success will be whether or not Herbert can stay healthy or not. They thrive with him, and die on the vine without him. Oregon averaged just 15 points per game when he was not available to them last fall. There are questions about depth and overall talent at RB and WR, and the offensive line is a bit in flux, and lacks overall experience and depth. The defense, on the other hand, could actual continue to improve, and has some stellar talent in the front seven with Jelks on the line, and Dye and Hollins at LB. I expect good things from that side of the football. It all comes down to kep players producing and staying healthy. I am not certain that Oregon is in the kind of shape they need to be just yet to win the PAC-12 North, but if they stay healthy, they can make it interesting.
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