North Carolina Tar Heels 2018 Football Preview
Opening Statement: One thing was painfully obvious last fall for UNC, and that is the Branden Harris experiment at QB was an abject failure. Harris, a transfer from LSU ended up benched after he tossed just one scoring pass to 8 INTs. It was one big piece of a season that eventually went off the rails in every measurable form. Make no mistake, this is a make or break season for Larry Fedora, a coach who I have never been high on to begin with. Fedora has never really built anything. He has inherited talent everywhere he has gone, and rode the train out to the next stop before he had to deal with bottoming out. He has no such exit strategy available to him now. 2018 will tell his tale and fate.
Breakdown Offense: Chazz Surratt returns at QB, and while there were flashes with him, there are also questions about his overall ability. He played in 9 games last fall, and passed for 1342 yards with 8 scores and 3 INTs, but he averaged just 149.1 yards passing per game, and completed just 58.5% of his passes on the season. He ran for 5 more scores, but was not always effective as a runner, averaging just 2.47 yards per carry. Obviously, improvements have to be made. Nathan Elliott is back if Surratt falls short after passing for 926 yards in 5 games. He tossed 10 TDs, but also was picked off 5 times, and was far less accurate, completing just 51.4% of his passes. Manny Miles, a senior, is likely headed for the 3rd team slot.
The Heels were not exactly breaking down doors with the run game, either. They ranked 88th nationally in rushing yards per game, and are trying to kick things up a notch or four in camp. Jordan Brown is back at RB, as he rushed for 613 yards and 4 scores, while averaging 4.44 yards per carry. He carried the ball just 11.5 times per game last fall, and that will not cut it for a starter. Michael Carter will absolutely push him after a 558 yard season that saw him score 8 times, while averaging 5.75 yards per carry. Again, he was severely underutilized, as he carried just 8.82 times per game. There is not much in the way of overall depth here.
Anthony Ratliff-Williams is the lone starter returning in 2018 at WR. He led the team with 35 catches for 630 yards and 6 scores, and averaged 18 yards per catch. A big key this season will be to get the ball in his hands more than 2.9 times per game. Dazz Newsome and Thomas Jackson are in line to start this fall. Newsome caught 18 passes last fall off the bench, while Jackson played in just 3 games, catching 7 passes last fall. Roscoe Johnson and Beau Corrales are expected to add some depth off the bench, as they combined for 18 catches last season.
Brandon Fritts returns at TE after catching 25 passes last season, with 4 of them going for scores. Jake Bargas returns to back him up, and Carl Tucker is expected to see some work as well.
The line is in trouble, as only one player returns who started the season finale in 2018. RT Charlie Heck is that lone returning starter from a line that was always jumbling last fall. William Sweet (LT), Nick Polino (LG), Jay-Jay McCargo (C), and Jonathon Trull (RG) are expected to gain starting jobs in camp. Mason Veal can provide support at OG and OT, but there is no depth behind that. Consider this to be one of my red flag positions for this team, as there are others as well.
Brewakdown Defense: Only 5 starters return from a defense that finished ranked 99th in the nation last fall, and ranked just 112th against the run Improvements will have to start up front, where 2 starters return on the line in DT Aaron Crawford and DE Malik Carney. Carney is the best edge defender on the team, as he finished with 12 TFLs last fall. He also led with 5.5 sacks, and added 5 QB hurries, 2 PBUs, and 2 forced fumbles. Crawford was good for 5 TFLs, 3 sacks, and 6 QB hurries.
Tomon Fox is slated in as the starter at the open DE spot, while Jalen Dalton is penciled in at DT. Fox played in all 12 games as a freshman last fall, and totaled 23 tackles, a solid number for a rotational end. Dalton was a force last fall, finishing with 8 TFLs, but he played in just 9 games die to injury. He is an excellent addition back into the lineup if he can stay healthy.Allen Cater returns to add some depth at DE, while Jeremiah Clarke adds depth inside. Jason Stowbridge adds depth on a swing basis, as he can cover all 4 spots.
Cole Holcomb is the only returning starter at LB. He is a big returnee, as he led the team with 93 tackles last fall at SLB. He was not incredibly active behind the line, however, as he added just 2.5 TFLs. Jonathon Smith (MIKE) and Dominique Ross (WILL) are the projected new starters at LB, but look for former Tennessee commit Matthew Flint to get in on some action as a freshman this fall. He was an early enrollee. Depth is incredibly thin here, making this yet another red flag position.
The secondary was actually the strength of the defense last season, ranking 63rd nationally against the pass. Myles Dorn and JK Britt are both back at Safety. Dorn totaled 5 PBUs last fall and finished 3rd on the team with 71 tackles. He also tied for the team lead in INTs with 2. Britt finished with 53 tackles, but did not do a ton in pass coverage, and is more of a threat against the run. Again, depth is an issue.
KJ Sails returns at CB this fall after posting a rock solid 13 PBUs last fall. He ended up empty handed on INTs, so he has to start turning some of those plays on balls in the air into turnovers this fall. He totaled 30 tackles. Myles Wolfolk is expected to step int the opposite CB job. He played in 10 games as a freshman last fall. Patrice Rene is the only real depth on the roster at the position.
Breakdown Speical Teams: Freeman Jones returns at PK after a mostly uneven season. He hit only 9/14 FG attempts on the year, and was 37/38 on PAT tries.
The Tar Heels got a bit of a jolt when Australian Punter Tom Sheldon quit football after averaging 45.8 yards per punt. Luckily, Hunter Lent is still around, and averaged 44.88 yards per punt on 5 attempts last season.
Ratliff-Williams is a dangerous KR man, and averaged 26.32 yards per return, and took 2 back for scores. The Heels need to find a new PR man in fall camp.
Final Analysis: North Carolina was abysmal as a second half team last fall, and got crushed when closing out in losses. They also dropped 3 leads in the 4th quarter of games last season. Learning how to close out with leads is imperative, but coming out of the locker room strong is even more so. The defense is thin, the offensive line is a mess in flux, and running the football was a joke last fall. The QB situation still is not ironed out either. With all of these issues not really resolved heading into the fall, I project another long, uneven season for UNC, and that could be bad news for Fedora , who is just 43-34 in 6 years.
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