Tuesday, September 3, 2013

PRS Week One Rankings: FBS Edition

With week one now entirely closed out, it's now time to for the release of our Bilo Power Ranking System for FBS football. Every week from now until the end of the season, we will be releasing our weekly rankings for both FBS and FCS football. For those of you who are not familiar with our rankings, let me explain how they work. We have come up with a set of numeric values for wins, losses, road and home wins and losses, point differentials, and points scored. Since we have never believed in the BCS system, strength of schedule matters only for FBS programs playing FCS schools. We treat every conference the same on each level, with no conferences getting preferential treatment over an others. This is an equal playing field. Keith Harding is our head statistician and research analyst, and I have handed the formula and its management over to him. Every team starts at zero to start the season, and the rankings are cumulative week to week. There is no pre-season "poll", as this is not a standard or traditional poll or ranking system. The top 25 changes wildly during the first month, and calms down traditionally thereafter as teams get into a groove.
Without further delay, we are proud to present our first 2013 PRS Rankings!

1. Florida State (1-0, 269 Points)
Last Week: Defeated Pittsburgh 41-13
This Week: Nevada (0-1)
The Seminoles got an all time great performance out of RS Freshman QB Jamies Winston, and FSU looks to be for real. The game against Nevada ought to be a cake walk for the Noles this week.

2. Alabama (1-0, 260 Points)
Last Week: Defeated Virginia Tech 35-10
This Week: at #25 Texas A&M
The Tide rolled away from an overmatched Hokie squad Saturday night, and as always, Nick Saban has Bama looking like a pro team. This week will bring a challenge against a fired up Aggie team, but I believe that the Tide overcomes this time.

3T. Michigan (1-0, 259 Points)
Last Week: Defeated Central Michigan 59-9
This Week: Notre Dame
Michigan had a huge week against the spiraling Chippewas, and Notre Dame comes in off of their own solid, yet less than amazing win at home against Temple. With this being the last game between the two in the Big House for a while, I look for UM to take it, as they have at home 6 of the last 7 in this series.

3T. Texas Tech (1-0, 259 Points)
Last Week: Defeated SMU 41-23
This Week: Stephen F. Austin
The Kliff Kingsbury era started out with a bang, as Baker Mayfield passed for 413 yards. Tech will not stay here long with a meaningless game against the FCS Lumberjacks coming up. Tech will likely drop out of the top 10 next week.

5. Northwestern (1-0, 258 Points)
Last Week: Defeated California 44-30
This Week: Syracuse (0-1)
Treyvon Green rushed for 2 scores and Collin Ellis returned a pair of picks for scores, and the Wildcats pulled away in the 4th to beat the Bears in Berkeley. Kolter Cain went down to injury (hardly a surprise) and Trevor Siemian sis a serviceable job replacing him, as he made several clutch throws late in the game. Syracuse could be a tough home opener.

6T. Colorado (1-0, 255 Points)
Last Week: Defeated Colorado State 41-27
This Week: Central Arkansas (1-0)
Connor Wood passed for 400 yards, while Paul Richardson caught 12 passes for 208 yards as the Buffaloes won the annual rivalry game in Denver. If you are looking for an upset possibility next week of the FCS vs. FBS variety, Central Arkansas could bring some heat. Win or lose, the Buffaloes fall next week while gaining very few points from a win against an FCS opponent.

6T. Texas (1-0, 255 Points)
Last Week: Defeated New Mexico State 56-7
This Week: At BYU (0-1)
The Longhorns piled up a school record 715 yards, mostly in the second half, to get by a miserable start Saturday night in Austin. David Ashe was picked off twice in the first half, and the Horns trailed the Aggies 7-0 late into the second quarter before the wheels fell off of the wagon for NMSU. Ashe accounted for 5 TDs in the win, and now Texas takes on a beaten down looking BYU squad on the road.

8T. LSU (1-0, 247 Points)
Last Week: Defeated TCU 37-27
This Week: UAB (0-1)
Terrance Magee and Alfred Blue combined for 184 yards rushing and Magee scored twice as LSU held off a strong challenge from TCU in Arlington. The Bayou Bengals should find the going much easier against the rebuilding Blazers this Saturday.

8T. USC (1-0, 247 Points)
Last Week: Defeated Hawaii 30-13
This Week: Washington State (0-1)
The Trojans are the weakest club in this week's top 10 after a non-impressive win against the Rainbow Warriors in Honolulu. Neither Cody Kessler nor Max Wittek took the reins on a still open QB competition, and it was up to the defense to hold the ship together. WSU will be looking for a huge upset opportunity at the Coliseum.

10. UCLA (1-0, 246 Points)
Last Week: Defeated Nevada 58-20
This Week: Idle
Brett Hundley passed for 265 yards and scored 4 total TDs as the Bruins outscored Nevada 41-7 after the half, when the score was just 17-13. Jordan James added 155 yards on the ground, and 12 different Bruins caught passes. The Bruins will slide with no points coming in an off week, and have a huge opportunity to climb high at Nebraska on 9/14.

11. Western Kentucky (1-0, 245 Points)
Last Week: Defeated Kentucky 35-26
This Week: At Tennessee (1-0)
WKU won Bobby Petrino's debut game, and Keyshawn Simpson ran for a pair of scores, while the defense made Kentucky's air raid offense look more like an air fade. The Toppers get another huge crack at a vulnerable SEC opponent in Knoxville.

12. Mississippi (1-0, 243 Points)
Last Week: Defeated Vanderbilt 39-35
This Week: SE Missouri State (0-1)
The Rebels overcame a 21-10 deficit at the half to outscore the Commodores 29-14 after the half in the win on the road. Ole Miss gains very little in which should be an easy romp over FCS member SE Missouri State of the Ohio Valley Conference this week.

13. Louisville (1-0, 241 Points)
Last Week: Defeated Ohio 49-7
Next Week: Eastern Kentucky (1-0)
Teddy Bridgewater tossed 5 TD passes, and the Cardinals jumped out to a 42-0 lead in the rout. The Cardinals will slide this week, with a game against EKU, but Bridgewater may get closer to Heisman consideration with another huge game.

14T. Marshall (1-0, 240 Points)
Last Week: Defeated Miami (Ohio) 52-14
This Week: Gardner-Webb (1-0)
Rakeem Cato tossed 5 TD passes and the Herd broke a 14-14 tie at the half to score 38 unanswered points in quarters 3 and 4. Like many others in this early Power Ranking, they will fall next week by virtue of playing a no value game against the Bulldogs of Gardner-Webb, who defeated Citadel last week.

14T. Wisconsin (1-0, 240 Points)
Last Week: Defeated UMass 45-0
This Week: Tennessee Tech (1-0)
The Badgers started off the Gary Anderson era with a bang over UMass, and should cruise easily again against FCS opponent Tennessee Tech this week. Thank God the Big 10 as a conference has banned FCS opponents moving forward. It's time for Wisconsin to play someone.

16. Oklahoma State (1-0, 239 Points)
Last Week: Defeated Mississippi State 21-3
This Week: At #22 UT-San Antonio (1-0)
The Cowboys defense carried the day, and how often can we say that? UTSA is coming off of a nice win at New Mexico, but beating the Cowboys would be a much higher task than that. OSU should climb a few spots next week.

17. Northern Illinois (1-0, 233 Points)
Last Week: Defeated Iowa 30-27
This Week: Idle
A late pick led to the game winning FG with 3 seconds left, and NIU started off the season with an all important win over the Big 10 on the road. The bye week comes at a bad time, but a win over Idaho on the 14th should have the Huskies moving up quickly again.

18T. Penn State (1-0, 229 Points)
Last Week: Defeated Syracuse 23-17
This Week: Eastern Michigan (1-0)
The opening win at the Meadowlands was more important than many may think, as the Lions got off to a solid start. An easy win against the Eagles next week, and Bill O'Brien's guys are looking good for September. It should be easy next weekend.

18T. Minnesota (1-0, 229 Points)
Last Week: Defeated UNLV 51-23
This Week: At New Mexico State
The Gophers grabbed the lead right before the half and never looked back against UNLV at home. The Gophers get one more patsy this week in Las Crucas, so 2-0 is very real out of the gate right now.

18T. Texas State (1-0, 229 Points)
Last Week: Defeated Southern Mississippi 22-15
This Week: Prairie View A&M (1-0)
The Bobcats jumped out to a 14-3 lead at the half, and then held off the Eagles in the 4th quarter for a quality road win. The top 25 appearance won't last with a no value game at home against the SWAC member Panthers next weekend.

18T. UT-San Antonio (1-0, 229 Points)
Last Week: Defeated New Mexico 21-13
This Week: #16 Oklahoma State (1-0)
Larry Coker's overachievers got a taste of these rankings early last season as well, but this home opener is a meat grinder this week. UTSA came from behind to beat what was supposed to be an improving New Mexico club, so I do not expect them to lie down at home this week, but a win seems too much to ask for.

22. Cincinnati (1-0, 227 Points)
Last Week: Defeated Purdue 42-7
This Week: At Illinois (1-0)
The Tommy Tuberville era got off to a rousing start against Purdue, one of the biggest doormats in the Big 10. There is a bigger doormat, however, in Illinois. The Bearcats should be 2-0 in Big 10 play this week, so too bad they are in the sinking ship known as the AAC.

23. Maryland (1-0, 226 Points)
Last Week: Defeated Florida International 43-10
This Week: Old Dominion (0-1)
The Terps can be happy with a 33 point win against a team that a troupe of girl scouts could roll over. Now it's time to play grown up football, with a rising star program in ODU coming to town this week. Edsell is on the line here, so a loss to the Monarchs would be a disaster.

24. North Texas (1-0, 224 Points)
Last Week: Defeated Idaho 40-6
This Week: At  (0-1)
North Texas got a softball tossed at them with an opener against Idaho, and next week should be tougher with a road trip to Athens to take on what should be a livid Ohio team. This will be a game of who wants it more, and if North Texas wins, they could be the surprise of CUSA early.

25. Texas A&M (1-0, 223 Points)
Last Week: Defeated Rice 52-31
This Week: Sam Houston State
The Owls gave the Aggies all that they could give for about a quarter and a half, and then Manziel came in and blasted them late. Of course the ever head in the game Johnny Football got himself ejected for taunting late, so there's that.

The Next 10

26. Washington (1-0, 220)
27. UCF (1-0, 219)
28. Oklahoma (1-0, 218)
29. NC State (1-0, 216)
30. Miami (1-0, 212)
31. Bowling Green (1-0, 211)
32. Ohio State (1-0, 210)
33. Arkansas (1-0, 204)
34. Fresno State (1-0, 203)
35. Notre Dame (1-0, 200)

The Bottom 10

116. Hawaii (0-1, -204)...Inept all the way through in home loss to USC.
117. Pittsburgh (0-1, -215)...Secondary never got off the bus in 41-13 loss to FSU.
118. Oregon State (0-1, -257)...Losing to E. Washington was bad enough. That defense?
119. South Alabama (0-1, -280)...This program doesn't belong in FBS yet, lost to S. Utah.
120. Kansas State (0-1, -282)...Lost to the best FCS team in the country, at home.
121. Iowa State (0-1, -288)...Lost to in-state FCS rival N. Iowa at home. Ouch.
122. Georgia State (0-1, -289)...See S. Alabama, but the loss came to Samford.
123. UConn (0-1, -297)...The loss to Towson may be a head scratcher, as is Pasqualoni as coach.
124. San Diego State (0-1, -302)...Losing to E. Illinois has no excuses. Ridiculous loss.
125. South Florida (0-1, -311)...Gave up 31 in the 2nd quarter, got destroyed by McNeese St.

Please email us to request the complete 1-125 rankings this week at scott.bilo@powerratedsports.com

Coming up next: FCS PRS Rankings!

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