With the
stretch run coming for conference championships, being the month of November,
this is the time of year where my PASS/FAIL reports take on a different
direction. Instead of concentrating on who has passed or failed for a given
week, I start to focus in on those programs that are still in contention for
conference titles. There are a total of 57 programs left in contention for conference
titles across 10 FBS conferences at this point. Some are loosely in contention,
or they need serious help to win their race, and some are in direct contention.
One division, the Mountain West (West Division) has seen a champion at this
early date in San Diego State, who will play for the Mountain West Title. Here
is a look at who is in contention, by conference and division, and this will be
a focal point of this report moving forward.
American
Athletic
East Division:
Temple, USF, UCF
Temple stayed slightly ahead in the East by taking down U
Conn 21-0 last week, and remains a half game ahead of USF. The Owls hold the
tie breaker in head to head over both the Bulls and UCF, as Temple has beaten
both already this season. When looking at the future schedule for Temple (7-3
overall), the Owls should be favored both in games against Tulane and East
Carolina, and look to be heavy favorites to play in the AAC title game.
USF, by virtue of losing to Temple, needs to the Owls to
drop at least one of those two games, and the Bulls need to win out. The Bulls
were idle this week, but they have a brutal slate with three games left, and
two of those are on the road in the next two weeks as USF travels to Memphis
and SMU before returning home to take on UCF in the finale.
UCF has been on a rebuilding movement under Scott Frost,
but the Knight are clearly ahead of schedule. They also need some help from
Temple, as the Knights would require two losses for Temple in their final two
games played, and UCF would need to win out, including in their finale against
UCF. Currently, UCF site 1.5 games back in the East. They have two straight
home games coming up against Cincinnati, and against a brutally tough Tulsa
club, before finishing on the road at USF.
West Division:
Tulsa, Navy, Houston, Memphis, SMU
Yes, all of the above teams are still in it to some
degree in the West. Houston was expected to dominate in this division, but that
never really happened. Tulsa and Navy are now in control, and they have a date
coming up this week with Navy on the road, before hitting the road again the
following week to play at UCF. Tulsa needs to win both of these games as things
sit. They have already beaten Memphis, but fell to Houston. Without some help,
Tulsa is in must win mode moving forward.
Navy has a bit of an easier path if they should defeat
Tulsa this week. The Middies have already beaten both Houston and Memphis, but
they go on the road for three solid weeks after this game, if you include the
non con season finale against Army. Navy plays at East Carolina and at SMU
after hosting Tulsa.
Houston has been a flop in my book after beating
Oklahoma, and never fully lived up to their ability in conference play. Losses
to SMU and Navy have the Cougars on the outside looking in, and they need Tulsa
to beat Navy, and then need to get Tulsa to lose to pull into a tie. If that
happens, Houston goes to the AAC title game. If Navy beats Tulsa, things start
to look bleak for the Cougars, who travel to Memphis in the season finale after
taking on Tulane and Louisville (non con game).
Memphis and SMU on fringe candidates, but still have not
fallen off the grid. Memphis is just one game back in the West, but they have
already lost to Tulsa and Navy, so they are barely hanging on. The Tigers still
have Houston at home coming up, but they need some serious help, and it may be
too much to ask.
SMU is in the same boat as Memphis, although the Mustangs
have beaten Houston. For the Mustangs, it is likely, at 2 games back, going to
be more about making a push for a bowl bid. SMU (4-5) still has games against
East Carolina, USF, and Navy, making that a tough go.
Bowl Eligible
Teams: Temple, USF, Tulsa, Navy, Houston, Memphis
Bowl Ineligible: U
Conn
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