We are down to six teams left in the American race for births to the conference title game in a little over a month from now. Here are my projections as they stand:
East Division: UCF, USF
UCF: The Knights are flying high averaging a nation leading 51 points per game, and are only allowing just over 19 per game. UCF should be favored against SMU, U Conn, and Temple, and still has a major clash to close the year against USF. If UCF can win out, they win the division. If they lose, they need USF to lose one more game as well.
USF: The Bulls fell to Houston last weekend, which complicates things for them moving forward. They have two games coming up with U Conn and Tulsa that they should be heavily favored in, and then comes the UCF game in Orlando to close out the regular season. The Bulls need UCF to lose one game, and then need to beat the Knights to take back the East title.
West Division: Memphis, SMU, Navy, Houston
Memphis: The Tigers are a rock solid 7-1 at this point, and already have wins over Navy and Houston. The Tigers get Tulsa this week, and should be double digit favorites there on the road. If the Tigers can beat SMU the week after at home, the Tigers look like they have a lock on the West division with a season finale against East Carolina coming up at home.
SMU: The Mustangs still have a shot, especially if they can win out, meaning that they would have a win over Memphis in a tie breaker. The problem will be the next three weeks, as the Mustangs take on UCF, Navy, and Memphis before wrapping it up with Tulane at home. This is going to be a tough run, and the odds are not good.
Navy: The Middies need some help to make a final run, as they have two conference losses. They have also already fallen to Memphis, so they need a real Tiger collapse at this point to overtake the Tigers. They still have five games left, but only three are AAC games. After visiting Temple this week, they still have SMU, and a road game at Houston coming up, and they need to win out to have a shot, and get some help as well.
Houston: It has not been a drama free first season for Major Applewhite, but the Cougars are still clinging to a shot in the West race. Houston only has three games left, against East Carolina, Tulane, and Navy, and probably has the easiest overall go of anyone left in the race. Houston has, however, already lost to Memphis, so like most others in this boat, they need to win out, and hope for the Tigers to fall apart down the stretch.
Out of the Race: U Conn, Temple, East Carolina, Cincinnati, Tulane, Tulsa
Coaches on the Hot Seat: Scottie Montgomery, East Carolina
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