Baylor Bears 2018 Football Preview

Baylor Bears 2018 Football Preview

Opening Statement: The 2018 Baylor football season could not have gone more wrong if they had tried. A 1-11 final record was the result of intense off-field issues that ended up erasing an entire recruiting class, and Matt Ruhle, a good football coach with no experience outside of the Northeast, took on what became an impossible task in the Southwest. Rebuilding the Bears program to anything resembling their former selves is going to take years worth of work, and the only thing that could have made matters any worse was giving it the death penalty, which is essentially what the result looks like. This program has been put years into the dumpster, and it's going to be a long, dreadful climb out.

Breakdown Offense: Zach Smith, the QB who was supposed to be the future for Baylor, is gone, as he has transferred to Tulsa. Charlie Brewer is now the QB after passing for 1562 yards with 11 TDs and 4 picks in 8 games as a freshman. Brewer completed 68.1% of his passes on 25.5 attempts per game, and gives the Bears at least a building block to work with. Gerry Bohanon, a freshman, and Preston Heard, will battle for the primary backup job as we head into the fall.

The run game was one of the worst in the nation last fall, averaging just 117.25 yards per game. That will not fly if the Bears are to climb out of the black hole that they are currently in. JaMycal Hasty left spring ball with the job in hand, but averaged just 4.13 yards per carry last fall. John Lovett led the team with just 445 yards last fall, and has fallen behind on the depth chart. Trestan Ebner, a sophomore, is also in the mix, and may have the most long term promise of the group, as he managed to average over 5 yards per carry in limited work.

Denzel Mims and Tennessee transfer (and former RB) Jalen Hurd will start at the outside WR positions, while Chris Platt starts at the IR spot. Mims caught 61 passes for 1087 yards last fall and scored 8 times. Hurd has solid size, and looks more like a receiver than a back, and the move should completely fit his abilities. Platt caught just 16 balls. RJ Sneed, Marques Jones, Pooh Stricklin, and Tyquan Thornton will try to provide some depth to the WR spots, while Tony Nicholson and Rajah Preciado will back up the IR slot.

The starters on the line appear to be set heading into the fall, but battles could ensue in camp. Jake Fruhmorgen (LT), Xavier Newman(LG), Sam Tecklenburg (C), Blake Blackmar (RG), and Patrick Lawrence (RT) are holding onto the starting spots out of spring ball. JOsh Malin could battle to start at LT, while Khalil Keith and Rob Saulin provide depth at LT as well. Malin, if he does not win the LT job, would backup at RT with Eleasah Anderson. Johncarlo Valentin and Christian Beard are the second team OGs, while Henry Klinge and Jason Moore, both freshmen, are the 3rd teamers. Ryan Miller is the backup C.

Breakdown Defense: The defensive unit was a wreck last fall, allowing 35.9 points per game, which had the Bears ranked 114th in the nation in that category. Baylor allowed 267 yards passing per game, while also allowing 189.92 yards per game on the ground.

Greg Roberts returns as the starter at DE, but finished with just 4 TFLs last fall. James Lockhart and James Lynch are the backups. Lynch should play himself into the rotation, and should push for the starting job as he ifnished with 5 TFLs last season. Xavier Jones is the hybrid RUSH end. Jones played in just 4 games last fall. Deonte Williams and BJ Thompson are in the mix there as well. They both played in 9 games last season.

Ira Lewis is the starting NT coming out of spring ball, and may be the most active NT in the Big 12, if not the nation. He totaled 11.5 TFLs last fall, and maybe the best defender on the team this season. Lynch will back him up in the rotation, while Cole Maxwell, a freshman, is the 3rd teamer. Tyrone Hunt starts at DT. Hunt finished with 3.5 TFLs and the staff would love to see him become more explosive this fall. Bravvion Roy and Chidi Ogbonnaya are the reserves behind Hunt.

Jordan Williams (WLB) and Jalen Pitre (SLB) are the projected starters at OLB for the Bears this fall. Williams finished with 38 tackles, while Pitre was right behind him with 37. Clay Johnston projects as the starting MLB, but Lenoy Jones is back as well, and could fight it out for the job. Jones finished with 27 tackles last fall, while Johnton, who should retain the job, finished with 57. DeMarco Artis and Clint Kelly are also on the depth chart, and should provide some push. Terrel Bernard and Ashton Logan are the backups at WLB, while Henry Black and Bryson Jackson are the backups on the strong side.

Jameson Houston and Grayland Arnold are projected as the starting CBs, but this secondary got torched last fall. Arnold did do a decent job with 7 PBUs last fall, but Houston finished with just one in 11 games. Harrison Hand should push Houston hard in fall camp, as he finished with 8 PBUs. Timarcus Davis is also in the mix. Raleigh Texada and Derrek Thomas are the backups behind Arnold, but neither brings a lot of experience to the table.

Blake Lynch is the projected SS, while Verkedric Vaughns is projected as the FS. Lynch knocked away 6 balls last season, and finished with just 18 tackles. Vaughns finished with 42 tackles. JT Woods and Jairon McVea are the backups at SS, while Chris Miller and Christian Morgan are in play at FS.

Breakdown Special Teams: Connor Martin was a bright spot in a bleak season, as he hit on 20/24 FG attempts last fall. He returns as the starter, with Peter Webster backing up at both PK and P. Speaking of the Punter position, Drew Galitz will handle that job full time after averaging 45.24 yards per punt after Martin struggled handling both jobs.

Arnold left spring as the PR man, but Tony Nicholson may have something to say about it in the fall after averaging 11.67 yards per return in 6 returns. Trevor White will handle kick returns after averaging 20.79 yards per return.

Final Analysis: The schedule sets Baylor up to win more than one game in 2018, but not by much. My win total for the Bears sits at 3, as improvement will be slow in coming. Ruhle is rebooting a program that was in complete chaos off the field, and that takes a painful amount of time. He must find some semblance of a run game, get consistency in the passing game, and find a way to fix a defense that is completely at the back end of FBS football. All of that takes time and resources, so low expectations should be the phrase this fall.